IMO the AB's squad is still a bit in the air and is almost certain to contain a surprise or two, plus we have a major issue with the outside backs where 5 does not go into 4 or even 3!
I think the side is set to be named next Wednesday.
Forwards:
Hookers(3)
Dane Coles
Codie Taylor
Liam Coltman
Props(5)
Owen Franks
Angus Ta'avao
Joe Moody
Nepo Laulala
Ofa Tuungafasi
Locks(4)
Brodie Retallick
Samuel Whitelock
Patrick Tuipulotu
Scott Barrett
Loose forwards(5)
Kieran Read(c)
Ardie Savea
Sam Cane
Matt Todd
Liam Squire
Backs:
Halfbacks(3)
Aaron Smith
TJ Perenara
Brad Weber
First five–eighths(3)
Beauden Barrett
Richie Mo'unga
Josh Ioane
Midfielders(4)
Ryan Crotty
Jack Goodhue
Anton Lienert-Brown
Sonny Bill Williams
Outside backs(4) (must drop 1 ?!?!)
Ben Smith
Jordie Barrett
George Bridge
Rieko Ioane
Sevuloni Reece
last WC we took 3 locks and 6 loosies but with Retalick injured and unable to play during some pool games I think the balance will swing to 4 locks 5 loosies with Scott Barrett selected as a lock who can cover 6.
Also helped by Patrick Tuipulotu's great performance against Aussie
I also think Liam Squire will make himself available and be recalled. That leaves us with the 3 great 7's in Cane, Savea and Todd. Makes it complicated fitting all 3 in but they are just too good to leave out
Luke Jacobson is interesting because he was never released and it seems like the selectors wanted to see more if him. I also look at his super rugby stats and IMO he was easily on of NZ's for loose forwards this year. If the selectors do drop Todd it may be for Luke Jacobson. who's stats were much better than Fifita in some key areas like tackle rate and success rate and discipline. But he does lack experience. Luke I think did have some reoccurring head knock symptoms which kept him off the field and is likely to cost him a spot.
Laumape is just flat out unlucky, no way there is room for 5 midfielders and despite the form he is in. He is 5th in the AB's pecking order with Crotty in the mix. But Honestly I think the chances of all 4 of our midfielders getting through the WC uninjured are 50/50 at best so he needs to stay fit and ready. Crotty and SBW have had bad runs of injury. Also the big difference between him and the others is the passing game. Its an area of his game he needs to develop.
Considering that barrett is set to play most of the WC at 15 and Richie's just injured we simply can't leave Josh Ioane out! I also think hes almost certain to start against Tonga.
With Barrett playing 15 we simply cant take everyone from Ben Smith, Jordie Barrett, George Bridge, Rieko Ioane, Sevuloni Reece. Which would need to be cut to 4 anyway!
Or does something equally crazy happen like Jordie Barrett gets dropped?
OR do they consider Jordie Barrett an option to play 10 and leave Josh Ioane out!?!?! Jordie does consider himself a goal kicking 12. he has the skills to play 10 but it would be unlikely in big games, that said he has a lot more test experience than Josh Ioane.
Or do they do something crazy like only take 2 halfbacks?
It's crazy to think that they may have to drop Rieko Ioane sure he has been the best winger on the planet for the last 2-3 years but hes been off form after not really being at his best in super rugby then underwhelming in the first 2 tests. he's been released to Mitre 10 Cup. Dropping Ben Smith would be an even bigger call, long time the best 15 in the world he is lacking recent rugby and spark to his game but he still looked more threatening than Ioane and he's such a big influence in the squad. I also think the month or so we have before the WC is more than enough time for Ben Smith to work on his form and fitness and get back to his best.
Or despite the awesome performance in that last test do you drop Reece? I think Bridge is a lock in with his form, skill under the high ball and versatility to play any position in the back 3.
I wanted to see more of Braydon Ennor but he hasn't really been used so cant really be considered. IMO he looks like he will play a lot of test footy eventually.
Unlucky/on call
Ngani Laumape
Asafo Aumua
Luke Jacobson
Braydon Ennor
Dalton Papalii
Shannon Frizell
Jackson Hemopo
Karl Tu'inukuafe
Atunaisa Moli
Vaea Fifita
Whetu Douglas - I think this guy should have been given more of a shot at the squad