The General RWC 2023 draw discussion thread

[pagliaccio_euforico]

Do you really want to face a fresh biggar after a heavyweight bought?

 

[TRF_Olyy]

I mean, while I think Ireland will beat Scotland comfortably, it's still within the realms of possibility that Ireland don't get out the group

That would be, by far, the most bants outcome

 

[pagliaccio_euforico]

What about Finn Russell ******* up the score to put it out of LBP range with the clock in the red?

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Yeah yeah, have you thought about the possibility that Sexton and half of your first team get injured in the NZ qtr final win and then, in our semi final, you get 5 red cards in the first 10 mins and Nigel Owens being brought in as last minute cover to officiate the game? Didn’t think you had. I’ll let you ponder that one when you go to sleep tonight boyo. Nos da.

Yes

Feel like the officiating definitely might go against us. We're the most disciplined side in the world when it comes to headshots and it's definitely been an advantage for us, absolutely nullified this tournament with anything going.

I mean, while I think Ireland will beat Scotland comfortably, it's still within the realms of possibility that Ireland don't get out the group

That would be, by far, the most bants outcome

What about Finn Russell ******* up the score to put it out of LBP range with the clock in the red?

Finn Russell would have to beat Johnny Sexton for the first time in his career on his last chance and fairytales like that just don't happen to ugly Scottish people.

 

[big ginger 8]

Finn Russell would have to beat Johnny Sexton for the first time in his career on his last chance and fairytales like that just don't happen to ugly Scottish people.

Have you not seen Shrek?

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Have you not seen Shrek?

He's sexy asf?

 

[HenryChinaski]

Just incidentally, you can currently win a stay at Shreks swamp. This may be of interest to some.

https://www.thenational.scot/news/23815822.free-shrek-getaway-announced-airbnb-highlands/

 

[Ddanno]

Glad I never post in these things

 

[Bada-Bing!]

So we're looking like having QFs of:

France v South Africa, the winners will play the winners of England v Fiji in the semis

New Zealand v Ireland, the winners will play the winners of Wales v Argentina in the semis.

 

[Duct Tape]

Four days until the next game. WTF WR? What the hell am I going to do at work this week!?!

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

So we're looking like having QFs of:

France v South Africa, the winners will play the winners of England v Fiji in the semis

New Zealand v Ireland, the winners will play the winners of Wales v Argentina in the semis.

I'm glad the strong half of the draw has worked out this way for the QFs.

I think the French pack will compete much better against the Boks than NZ would (especially interesting if SA go with conservative tactics/selection which will let the average French defence off the hook).

I think the NZ backs will pose a bigger threat to the superb Irish defence than the French ones would.

Flip those fixtures around and I think you would be looking at routine wins for Ireland and South Africa whereas I only make them about 70% favourites and probably by just 10-20 points.

England's route to the semifinal is lamentable. I fully expect a comfortable win against a Muntzless Fiji.

I've not fully given up on Argentina, but not far off it. I think they are almost as likely to lose to Japan as they are to beat Wales.

 

[Verde-Rubro]

Latest Rankings

 

[Vieux Talonneur]

Two meh QFs coming up (might be exciting but low quality) and two absolute stonkers, which really ought to be the semis.

Always have mixed feelings about the group stage. Some games are interesting in themselves like Georgia v Portugal but too many mismatches and too few games that had any real bearing on Bill’s lodgings for the next 4 years. Gloomsters and doomsters aside, most people could have predicted 7 of the QF teams with their eyes shut and at least half would have predicted Fij over Aus anyhow. In many ways largely a phoney war, but now the serious stuff begins. Roll on!

 

[dirty harry]

Two meh QFs coming up (might be exciting but low quality) and two absolute stonkers, which really ought to be the semis.

Always have mixed feelings about the group stage. Some games are interesting in themselves like Georgia v Portugal but too many mismatches and too few games that had any real bearing on Bill’s lodgings for the next 4 years. Gloomsters and doomsters aside, most people could have predicted 7 of the QF teams with their eyes shut and at least half would have predicted Fij over Aus anyhow. In many ways largely a phoney war, but now the serious stuff begins. Roll on!

Noone predicted Aus crashing out of the group stage!

Just about every prediction was for Aus to go through with one of the other 2.

Ps I'll take Fiji v Portugal in a blinder all day over France v SA in a dead rubber.

I'd even argue, outside of Ireland v SA group C has single handedly saved this RWC so far. Fijis heroic resurgence v Wales, Portugal getting a draw v Georgia, Aus crashing out, Portugal heroically getting their first ever win.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

I also found the pool stage this year particularly dull. Even France v NZ which I was really looking forward to turned out to be disappointing kick fest.

Particularly looking forward to these QF matches. Need something to distract from the horrors and what is likely to happen in Gaza.

 

[miccloarch]

France without Duponte and Ntamack being seriously underestimated. No surprise that, simultaneously, Irish and SA fans already saying if they lose they will be robbed (how Trump-esque).

Jalibert is turning into a world class playmaker and game manager before our eyes. I predict him to be key and to outplay Pollard/Libbok with Ramos' boot edging them over line. But sure, it'll definitely be the refs who win it for France /s.

 

[dirty harry]

France without Duponte and Ntamack being seriously underestimated. No surprise that, simultaneously, Irish and SA fans already saying if they lose they will be robbed (how Trump-esque).

Jalibert is turning into a world class playmaker and game manager before our eyes. I predict him to be key and to outplay Pollard/Libbok with Ramos' boot edging them over line. But sure, it'll definitely be the refs who win it for France /s.

Underestimated? Seems to me like most people back France to win lol.

I'm looking forward to this one!

 

[miccloarch]

Underestimated? Seems to me like most people back France to win lol.

I'm looking forward to this one!

It should be an epic match.

Neutral opinion is split three ways but Irish and Bok fans especially are very very confident about their team's chances. Admittedly it's the casuals who are writing France off completely but even those who know their rugby are talking themselves into an overly positive mood because of Ntamack and Duponte's injuries.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

This is a 50/50 on a normal day. 60/40 with the crowd I reckon.

 

[Half Pint]

What gives with those world rankings? Are they decided by Beauden Parrot as well?
-Australia are up a place, I guess because they've realised Eddie Jones is shouting at the sky, and will swap him for a proper coach after the world cup. -Fiji down two places to below Australia, because they upset the odds when Bill Beaumont had a bet with Macron that they'd go out in the groups.
-And Spain have gone up a place by watching one of the Ireland games in a bar in Seville.

 

[Quel Carreleur]

What gives with those world rankings? Are they decided by Beauden Parrot as well?
-Australia are up a place, I guess because they've realised Eddie Jones is shouting at the sky, and will swap him for a proper coach after the world cup. -Fiji down two places to below Australia, because they upset the odds when Bill Beaumont had a bet with Macron that they'd go out in the groups.
-And Spain have gone up a place by watching one of the Ireland games in a bar in Seville.

Erm.
Neither Australia nor Spain changed their rankings this week.

If you for this time last week, then Fiji lost to Portugal; with a lot of ranking points on the line, so it's not that Australia overtook Fiji, but that Fiji dropped below Australia.
Equally, it's not that Spain overtook Romania, but that Romania lost (to Tonga, so fewer ranking points up for grabs), so Romania drop below Spain.

If you're interested in the rankings, here's the explanation: https://www.world.rugby/tournaments/rankings/explanation
And here's a calculator for future reference: https://rawling.github.io/wr-calc/

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

The QFs were good entertainment, but completely underlined what a mess the draw was. QFs should be there to reward pool winners with an easier fixture and route to the final, whilst still giving a pool runner up a fighting chance of an upset. The SFs should be where the best four teams compete in close contests as a tournament reaches its climax.

For the QFs to see 3x pool winners sent home is a bit of a travesty that undermines the entire five week long pool stage. The pool stage was almost for nothing for any true RWC contender which is why I was arguing at the start for top teams to rest players more in the pools and focus exclusively on peaking for the QFs. Thankfully World Rugby's player safety u-turn means red cards in the pool stage did not impact on the QFs and there weren't many key injuries from sides that were chasing irrelevant pool victories. So these factorz were not as important as they might otherwise have been.

However, I think counter arguments that winning your group gives you confidence and increases the chance of success in the QF were not borne out at the weekend. 3 of the sides that went in with elevated confidence were sent packing.

 

[Herman the German]

The QFs were good entertainment, but completely underlined what a mess the draw was. QFs should be there to reward pool winners with an easier fixture and route to the final, whilst still giving a pool runner up a fighting chance of an upset. The SFs should be where the best four teams compete in close contests as a tournament reaches its climax.

For the QFs to see 3x pool winners sent home is a bit of a travesty that undermines the entire five week long pool stage. The pool stage was almost for nothing for any true RWC contender which is why I was arguing at the start for top teams to rest players more in the pools and focus exclusively on peaking for the QFs. Thankfully World Rugby's player safety u-turn means red cards in the pool stage did not impact on the QFs and there weren't many key injuries from sides that were chasing irrelevant pool victories. So these factorz were not as important as they might otherwise have been.

However, I think counter arguments that winning your group gives you confidence and increases the chance of success in the QF were not borne out at the weekend. 3 of the sides that went in with elevated confidence were sent packing.

After all in an ideal draw the best 8 teams in the world would advance to quarters and the best 4 to semis (viewed from before quarters). We got 8 teams from Top 10 advancing, regarding the matchup there were playing No1 / No4, No 2 / No3, No6 / No 10 and No7 / No 8. So statistically every pool winner got "rewarded" with a lower ranked team. After all you'll have to beat a Top 10 side in the quarters, there's nothing else to expect.

And when one views the current Top10 of rugby as a wider Tier 1 (in this case including Fiji), it's obvious that there'll be two groups with three teams from Top10 (in this case B and C). The thing that was not perfect though, was that 1 / 2 / 5 and 3 / 4 (rankings before the group) were in the same group. Still a balanced group stage (Ireland, Scotland and Australia / SA, Argentinia and Wales / France and Fiji / NZ and England) could still provide similar quarters than we have. It's just top tier in rugby being close by (which also makes games from quarters onward so tense).

 

[General Melchett]

If SA win it nobody can say they don't deserve it. I could be wrong but it must be up there with the toughest routes to the trophy.

World no.1 and 5 in the group stage. Then France (as hosts) in the QF, England (new world no. 5) in the SF and then (likely) the ABs in the final. That's a brutal run.

 

[Vieux Talonneur]

So I predicted the ABs to win the whole thing, albeit my logic was just a teeny bit flawed bar my Nostradamus moment that they’d narrowly do Ire in the QF.

Having seen the semis I’d now have them as pretty firm favourites. Only 2 really tough matches compared to the Boks 3 and an extra rest day. Scoring tries for fun. I think this will just be a step too far for an aging Boks team.

 

[bapean]

I hope ABs to win, but both teams have great players !

 

[Half Pint]

If SA win it nobody can say they don't deserve it. I could be wrong but it must be up there with the toughest routes to the trophy.
.

I can definitely say that they don't deserve it.
The <<Edit - pejorative accusation withdrawn - World Rugby have dropped charges for lack of evidence>> have been second best in three of their last four games. Massive credit to them that they find a way to win in those crucial knockout games, but you'll never convince me that they're the best team in the world, however many times you make me re-watch their recent games against Ireland, France and England (England! Ranked - what -ten in the world?). They've been consistently and repeatedly outplayed, except for in one single facet - the scrum. Each of those games was so tight that could play them all again and all three would be different results. So they're in the final purely by luck. (I won't mention referees). But I stand by my opinion that each of those three teams above were better than SA on that day. They clearly are not deserving "world champions" (with heavily ironic air quotes).
Also, just in case you're in any doubt, I hate the way they play the game. Boring and predictable.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2023/oct/24/rugby-union-breakdown-world-cup-veterans
Good point but this RWC does feel like an end of an era for many of them.

 

[HenryChinaski]

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2023/oct/24/rugby-union-breakdown-world-cup-veterans
Good point but this RWC does feel like an end of an era for many of them.

I'd completely lost track of how old some players are. I was going to say on another thread that I wouldn't be surprised if Cole was still around in 4 years - given props tend to mature later. Had no idea he was 36. I guess it makes sense as he looks about 70.