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RWC 2027 - Expanded to 24 teams

ncurd said:
Canada is pretty sucessful (relatively) on the women's side and had been at the Tier 2/3 table before. I know nothing about it but what stopping them from being there again?
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Basically they made all the men’s players move to Langford if they wanted to be HP. There has also been issue finding funding for a second MLR team.

Women’s rugby is a varsity sport in a lot of high schools but men’s rugby isn’t (gridiron is preferred) so their women’s team will always be strong.

They essentially have all the issues that American men do but a smaller population and a smaller player base to draw funding from.
 
Q!: why there's no news or even a website for the tournament? By this time of the cycle there was already even tickets available.
 
4 teams per pool is a huge improvement.

Expanding the 6N and RC with promotion/relegation would have been better but for that to happen the big boys would have to play ball and we know they never will unless there's financial incentive. Money rules everything these people do.
 
pagliaccio_euforico said:
USA gifted qualification
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That was basically guaranteed by the expansion to 24 teams. (cynics would say that was the whole point of expansion). Uruguay is also "gifted qualification".

Instead of Canada vs Chile like last time, we have

[PNC 4] will not be eliminated. This team [Canada] will take-on South America 2 [Chile]
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Winner qualifies, loser goes to Repechage... the same rewards as the USA vs Chile qualifier last time.
South America *3* [e.g. Brazil] now goes into Repechage. This isn't bad for South America.

The place that actually does lose compared to the old system, is Africa. Africa 2 now needs to win a play-off (vs e.g. Korea) first if they want to go to the Repechage tournament. But the old system was generous to them.

A closer look (a few small liberties taken with the rankings)
  • Rank 1 - 12 (tier 1, Japan, Fiji): Automatic Qualification (no change)
  • Rank 13-15 (Europe 1-2, Pacific 1): Gifted qualification (no change)
  • Rank 16 (Pacific 2 i.e. Tonga): A theoretical chance of going through Repechage (no change)
  • +Rank 17-18 (USA & Uruguay): Both gifted qualification (previously Winner qualifies, Loser gets at least Repechage)
  • +Rank 19 (Europe 3): Gifted qualification (previously gifted Repechage)
  • +Rank 20 (Europe 4): Gifted qualification (previously eliminated)
  • +Rank 21-22 (Canada vs Chile): Winner qualifies, Loser to Repechage (previously Winner gets at least Repechage, Loser eliminated)
  • +Rank 23 (Hong Kong): Gifted qualification (previously outside chance, gifted Repechage)
  • Rank 24 (Africa 1): Gifted qualification (no change)
  • +Rank 25 (Europe 5): Gifted Repechage (previously eliminated)
  • -Rank 26 (Africa 2): Beat Korea to make Repechage (previously gifted Repechage but came last place)
  • +Rank 27 (South America 3): Gifted Repechage (previously eliminated)
  • Rank 28-34 (Russia & Europe 6-11): Eliminated (no change)
  • +Rank 35 (Asia 2 e.g. Korea): Beat Africa 2 to make Repechage (previously eliminated)
  • ...
  • -Rank 49 (Oceania Nations Cup 1 e.g. Cook Islands): Eliminated? (previously a theoretical chance, if they can beat Tonga)
Comments:
  1. Basically the best 27 teams get gifted a path at least to the final Repechage tournament (exception is Africa 2 has to play-off vs Asia 2)
    1. Disclaimer about Russia because geopolitics, and several more European teams are at the same standard as Rank 27. No complaints from me.
  2. The advantages of extra RWC places are actually spread pretty evenly / proportionately. As if each team got a free pass to win 1 qualifying game.
    1. USA and Uruguay both get the same outcome as if they won that head-to-head play-off (Qualified)
    2. Canada & Chile both get one less play-off round
      1. Head-to-head Winner effectively gets an automatic win vs USA (or Uruguay) next round (Qualified)
      2. Head-to-head Loser gets treated as if that loss was in the 2nd round vs USA (to Repechage)
    3. Europe 1-4 qualify before their 2025 Rugby Europe Championship Semifinal, as if they already won it
  3. Europe will have 10 or 11 out of 24, instead of 8 or 9 out of 20. Practically half the teams overall, and they get half of the new spots.
    1. That's proportionate, and also merited based on rankings
  4. The Repechage / "Final Qualification Tournament" might be e.g. Canada, Switzerland, Zimbabwe and Brazil
    1. Under the previous system e.g. Romania, USA, Hong Kong and Zimbabwe
  5. OK, so that's who qualifies to RWC 2027, but because each pool is comparitively diluted of strength, the value of being there is reduced. So the big losers are 3 or 4 Tier 1 teams who get no competitive matches until the QFs. That... doesn't seem like a big deal for the teams, just for the spectators.
 
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European qualification has also changed. Split into 2 pools. 2025 Rugby Europe Championship (REC) Pools A and B...
  • REC-A has 2 teams qualify, and REC-A 3 and 4 go to play-offs vs REC-B 4 and 3, for a single Repechage spot ("Europe 5")
  • REC-B has 2 teams qualify, and REC-B 3 and 4 go to play-offs vs REC-A 4 and 3, for a single Repechage spot
The complication is that REC semifinals and finals still affect which pool those 4 qualified teams each go into. Otherwise REC-A and REC-B are comparable to Pacific Nations Cup and South America
  • 2 RWC spots & ½ repechage spot: 2025 Rugby Europe Championship Pool A (Georgia, Spain, Netherlands, Switzerland)
  • 2 RWC spots & ½ repechage spot: 2025 Rugby Europe Championship Pool B (Portugal, Romania, Germany, Belgium)
  • 1¾ RWC spots & ¼ repechage spot: 2025 Pacific Nations Cup Pool A (Samoa, Tonga, Fiji*)
  • 1¾ RWC spots & ¼ repechage spot: 2025 Pacific Nations Cup Pool B (USA, Canada, Japan*)
  • 1½ RWC spots & 1½ repechage spots: 2025 Sudamerica Rugby Championship (Uruguay, Chile, Brazil, Colombia?, Paraguay?, Argentina XV*)
  • 1 RWC spot & ½ repechage spot: 2025 Africa Cup (8-team Knock-out Bracket)
  • 1 RWC spot & ½ repechage spot: 2025 Asia Rugby Championship (Hong Kong, UAE, Korea, Sri Lanka)
* - Fiji, Japan and Argentina have already qualified, but still play in the PNC and Sudamerica Rugby Championship. I assumed here that Fiji/Japan don't come last in their pool.
 
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Chile and Uruguay will be competing for South America 2 though whereas last time it was South America 3 that played in the last chance qualifier. South America goes from having a maximum of three times in the RWC to a maximum of three teams in the RWC. Used to be SA 2 and 3 could qualify for RWC but now they might both be in the repechage.
 
pagliaccio_euforico said:
Chile and Uruguay will be competing for South America 2 though whereas last time it was South America 3 that played in the last chance qualifier. South America goes from having a maximum of three times in the RWC to a maximum of three teams in the RWC. Used to be SA 2 and 3 could qualify for RWC but now they might both be in the repechage.
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This might be mixing up whether or not Argentina is counted as South America 1...

It used to be the 1st and 2nd strongest teams other than Argentina could qualify
Now it's the 1st and 2nd strongest teams other than Argentina can qualify, and the 3rd strongest team other than Argentina can go to Repechage and just maybe also get there

I may have contributed to the confusion~

EDIT: Another way of looking at it...

  • previously, there was Americas 1 & 2 qualify, and Americas 3 went to repechage. North & South had symmetrical opportunities to compete for these positions. (not counting Argentina)
    • 1 & 2 could both come from the same side, but each side was guaranteed at least one out of the 3
  • now, it's equivalent to Americas 1, 2 & 3 qualify, and Americas 4 & 5 go to repechage. North & South have symmetrical opportunities to compete for them. (not counting Argentina)
    • 1, 2 & 3 are guaranteed one each side, but are all qualification spots now so no need to distinguish between them. USA and Uruguay are just qualified already.
    • 3, 4 & 5 are contested, with each side guaranteed at least 2 out of the 5... but then North America runs out of teams so South America 3 gets the last spot by default

    • If they just include RAN (Mexico, Central America & Caribbean) next time, then South America 3 will have a play-off. Maybe Oceania Nations Cup gets included here too.
      • So for 2031, The Americas 1-2-3 format is used again, but this time for Americas-Pacific 3-4-5
      • instead of USA vs Canada (for North America 1) it's Cook Islands vs Mexico (for "North America 3")
      • instead of USA vs Uruguay (for Americas 1) ___ it's Canada vs Chile (for Americas 3, loser goes to play-off)
      • instead of Canada vs Chile ______________________it's Mexico vs Brazil (winner goes to play-off, loser eliminated)
      • instead of USA vs Chile(for Americas 2 & 3) ____it's Canada vs Brazil (for Americas 4 & 5)
        • except you can skip this as they both get repechage spots anyway, no need to distinguish between them
 
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For people looking at this through a Tier 1 lens.

Portugal was a resounding success last year. Georgia underperformed but were still okay. Uruguay gave France a good scare.

If we don't give these teams a chance we'll never know how good they are because, apparently, it's too much to ask for T1/2 nations to play regular test matches against them.

A World Cup appearance gives them exposure and creates hype (the good kind) among their home populace.

The odd cricket score doesn't bother me. Who cares actually? Japan didn't disappear after NZ put 145 points on them in 1995.
 
A later pool draw would help with the cricket scores. France and New Zealand decided to get in a ******* contest to see if they could hit 100 and tbh on their both those teams can beat anyone by 40 (including SA and Ireland if they have a bad day).

Pool b was a mess where PD could have made a difference with 3 of the top 6 teams in the same pool. So they all had to run up the score on tier 2s.
 
pagliaccio_euforico said:
Pool b was a mess where PD could have made a difference with 3 of the top 6 teams in the same pool. So they all had to run up the score on tier 2s.
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Romania's regression made it even worse. They used to be such a good team.

I knew they had an historic rivalry with France but I didn't know they actually beat them 8 times (and many of those times it was against very good French teams that were winning the 5N and doing grand slams).
 
Brazil has to be the favourite to at least come 3rd and go to the Final Qualification Tournament. Chile could well also be there in FQT and have a re-match.

It wouldn't be so surprising if one of Spain/Portugal/Romania has a disappointing REC and ends up in Repechage too, so no guarantee FQT will be at all competitive
 
miccloarch said:
Romania's regression made it even worse. They used to be such a good team.

I knew they had an historic rivalry with France but I didn't know they actually beat them 8 times (and many of those times it was against very good French teams that were winning the 5N and doing grand slams).
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The Romanian team was very aligned with the military at the time so they had some very physical fit guys playing. Shame they couldnt continue it on.
 
Brigantine said:
Brazil has to be the favourite to at least come 3rd and go to the Final Qualification Tournament. Chile could well also be there in FQT and have a re-match.

It wouldn't be so surprising if one of Spain/Portugal/Romania has a disappointing REC and ends up in Repechage too, so no guarantee FQT will be at all competitive
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Spain need to make sure their off field eligibility issues are squeeky clean! Twice now theyve missed out on a World Cup due to ineligible players.

Brazil have a big pack orientated game dont they? Like the old Argentina...i may be wrong.
 

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