England vs New Zealand - 15/11/2025

[Don't Skip Leg Day]

I find it baffling people have so much confidence against the all blacks. Apart from the recent draw, I only remember 3 wins against them and I’ve been watching rugby since 2003ish.

What I find with the all blacks is their skill in turnover ball and broken field play. So when we don’t resource the breakdown enough as seen multiple times that plays into the kiwis strength.

Then add to that the constant 50/50 kicks, we are more likely to get punished by NZ by doing that rather than us gain much out of it.

I’ll check the stats once I’m into work but I can’t think of more than 3 times we’ve beaten them.

 

[Scotty]

I find it baffling people have so much confidence against the all blacks. Apart from the recent draw, I only remember 3 wins against them and I've been watching rugby since 2003ish.

What I find with the all blacks is their skill in turnover ball and broken field play. So when we don't resource the breakdown enough as seen multiple times that plays into the kiwis strength.

Then add to that the constant 50/50 kicks, we are more likely to get punished by NZ by doing that rather than us gain much out of it.

I'll check the stats once I'm into work but I can't think of more than 3 times we've beaten them.

I think it will be a close game and we are going well, we may even be favourites on form(genuinely done know) but I think people are having as much confidence as they have because we have pussed them so close in the last 5 times we've played them and we seem to be stronger now but also playing better rugby.

But...whilst our attack has looked better we also make alot of stupid errors as it hasn't fully settled yet. Our kicking game is strong but ABs can attack from anywhere and last week vs Fiji we made sooo many mistakes leading to penalties if we do that this week we will lose.

So I think it will be close but also that it is in our own hands. If we can be disciplined and accurate I do think we will win. But by no means is it we will win or im confident about it.

I actually can't wait tbh it should be a good one.

 

[BPM]

How about an ultra simplistic view. We've improved in the last 12 months whereas NZ have probably had a slightly weaker year than usual. Given how close it was a year ago, there's reasonable cause for optimism.

 

[Scotty]

How about an ultra simplistic view. We've improved in the last 12 months whereas NZ have probably had a slightly weaker year than usual. Given how close it was a year ago, there's reasonable cause for optimism.

Also how nice is it for England fans to be positive for once

 

[Geordie]

I think they'll target our midfield...especially Dingwall straight up and Lawrence on the outside.

That could be where we win or lose this game.

 

[Vieux Talonneur]

How about an ultra simplistic view. We've improved in the last 12 months whereas NZ have probably had a slightly weaker year than usual. Given how close it was a year ago, there's reasonable cause for optimism.

Yep, trajectories are different and we have had a couple of near misses over the last year with chances to win that really should have been taken. Added to being at home we should now be expecting to win this.

We don’t beat them often, but we don’t play them particularly often either - only 4 times since 2019 and 3 of those were in a 4 month window last year. And it’s all the better for that rarity.

 

[Vieux Talonneur]

I think they'll target our midfield...especially Dingwall straight up and Lawrence on the outside.

That could be where we win or lose this game.

I gather that the ABs are avid readers of TRF, so also expect them to target Ford and Steward and later M Smith to test whether our views on their respective weaknesses are right.

 

[Geordie]

I gather that the ABs are avid readers of TRF, so also expect them to target Ford and Steward and later M Smith to test whether our views on their respective weaknesses are right.

Awesome, we can come back after the game and congratulate those who read it right

 

[Which Tyler]

That's a good England team, with not a single selection that I'm unhappy about, given where we are.
The usual issues with a 6:2 split, and with one of those being Spencer - let's just keep Mitchel on for as long as he can possibly manage, and keep Ben as the last reserve to cover a later injury. Everyone else on the bench brings good impact, and I don't see our starters taking a backwards step.


NZ are the better team, but England should be the more confident, and are playing at home - this seems likely to come down to a moment of brilliance, bounce of the ball or ref.s decision.

 

[Wasps92]

Big game for Steward and Dingwall this. We need to see a standout performance from both.

 

[OllyM97]

I find it baffling people have so much confidence against the all blacks. Apart from the recent draw, I only remember 3 wins against them and I've been watching rugby since 2003ish.

What I find with the all blacks is their skill in turnover ball and broken field play. So when we don't resource the breakdown enough as seen multiple times that plays into the kiwis strength.

Then add to that the constant 50/50 kicks, we are more likely to get punished by NZ by doing that rather than us gain much out of it.

I'll check the stats once I'm into work but I can't think of more than 3 times we've beaten them.

In all fairness though, from 2005-19 New Zealand had a generational group of players who won 90% of their games over a 15 year period, won 2 RWCs and I think won 50 in a row at home. That’s what we were up against - I’m pretty sure there was a 5 year stretch (2012-16) where they lost 3 test matches in 70 which is freakishly dominant. I don’t think you can use that era as a marker as to how England do against the ABs as that, even for NZ, was an unusually dominant peak with 10-12 World XV players in the starting line-up each game.

The games since 2020 are more relevant because the two teams have generally been more evenly matched. Bizarrely, the one game that New Zealand really did a job on us in (2022) was the one that we ended up drawing!. From memory we were 25-6 down after 70 minutes but scored 3 tries in the last 10 minutes to draw level and then we kicked the ball out at the end when we had all the Momentum and were up against 14 men!!. That still infuriates me now.

I think there is a certain confidence this time because we got very close to NZ in 3 games last year, and should have won 2 of them, and I think we’ve got better depth and more confidence now than we had at this stage last year. Having said that, we still need to be right on our mettle defensively. I think to win this game we need to keep New Zealand to around 20 points. 2 or 3 sloppy defensive reads and that could be it, NZ are still ruthless at punishing basic errors from the opposition.

 

[Vieux Talonneur]

I think to win this game we need to keep New Zealand to around 20 points. 2 or 3 sloppy defensive reads and that could be it, NZ are still ruthless at punishing basic errors from the opposition.

Exactly. Bar one really bad day at the office NZ have scored at least 23 in every other game this year.

Historically these have not been high scoring fixtures. In the last 7 games neither side has exceeded 26 points. So discipline, low error count and red zone efficiency are likely to be the order of the day.

 

[Half Pint]

I think the optimistic forecasts are Hope winning out over Expectation.
But I'm looking forward to the game so much because, for a non-tournament game, there's a lot riding on the result.
If NZ win it will cast England as mere flat-track bullies who can look great against lower-ranked sides. Whereas if England win then it's a marker for genuine World Cup 2027 contention. (although they really need to beat SA to show that).

 

[Geordie]

I think the optimistic forecasts are Hope winning out over Expectation.
But I'm looking forward to the game so much because, for a non-tournament game, there's a lot riding on the result.
If NZ win it will cast England as mere flat-track bullies who can look great against lower-ranked sides. Whereas if England win then it's a marker for genuine World Cup 2027 contention. (although they really need to beat SA to show that).

Im not so sure.

SB is being quite smart here aswell:

Hes using these games to get starting experience for many of his "back up cast" - such as Baxter, Hayes, Coles,
Hes trialed CCS at 8 and seen the positive outcome, and that he can be a powerful player for 50 mins. (but maybe not 80)
Hes giving Dingwall a stretch of games at 12, which most are now seeing as decent but maybe not quite what we need
Hes looked at Freeman at 13 (which i think we'll be seeing again regular),
Roebuck continues to gain valuable experience...
Waboso showing he can be amongst the very best
etc etc

Im really dissappointed Seb Atkinson got injured, as i believe he would have started and i really would have like to see how he showed after a positive tour to Argentina.

The one area hes probably concerned with is hooker, where we really do look barren.

I think SB will have come in to this looking for 4 / 4 but i suspect if he can have 3 / 4 with a close defeat to NZ but got a load of experience in to his back up players, assessed certain players etc etc...he'll probably take that.

 

[Saintjay]

I find it baffling people have so much confidence against the all blacks. Apart from the recent draw, I only remember 3 wins against them and I've been watching rugby since 2003ish.

What I find with the all blacks is their skill in turnover ball and broken field play. So when we don't resource the breakdown enough as seen multiple times that plays into the kiwis strength.

Then add to that the constant 50/50 kicks, we are more likely to get punished by NZ by doing that rather than us gain much out of it.

I'll check the stats once I'm into work but I can't think of more than 3 times we've beaten them.

8 times we've beaten them. Two via the class of 2003. The only England team I've seen who i was confident in beating them before the game.

We win about 1/6 on average so are due a win. I'm optimistic but definitely not confident.

 

[Scotty]

8 times we've beaten them. Two via the class of 2003. The only England team I've seen who i was confident in beating them before the game.

We win about 1/6 on average so are due a win. I'm optimistic but definitely not confident.

I agree with this, I'm optimistic as the quality depth we have is great and gameplan has been good this series. And are going in the right direction. I'm optimistic about our chance to win, rather than confident we will.

The kick chase is huge this game because a bad kick to broken field will be deadly.

 

[BPM]

Agreed. And to be fair, I’m way more confident in what we’re doing now than I was 12 months ago.

While I still have some doubts about Borthwick, I am encouraged by what he has done so far this year. While a Tier 1 head coach shouldn’t be learning on the job I am impressed with his willingness to adapt and his ability to address weaknesses.

A win this weekend could be a big statement for Borthwick, particularly if we go 4/4.

It would definitely put a different spin on the 6N as well.

 

[spartan32]

I find it baffling people have so much confidence against the all blacks. Apart from the recent draw, I only remember 3 wins against them and I've been watching rugby since 2003ish.

What I find with the all blacks is their skill in turnover ball and broken field play. So when we don't resource the breakdown enough as seen multiple times that plays into the kiwis strength.

Then add to that the constant 50/50 kicks, we are more likely to get punished by NZ by doing that rather than us gain much out of it.

I'll check the stats once I'm into work but I can't think of more than 3 times we've beaten them.

I don’t think the past results are relevant. No one is disputing that NZ have an excellent record and are and very good team, consistently sitting in the top 3 teams in the world. But this isn’t about history, it’s about now. Right now England are on the ascendency. 9 wins on the trot, and raft of lions players available, new young quality players settling into their roles and a coaching team seemingly doing the same. NZ on the other hand made hard work of their last two games, and arguably could have lost both. They look less potent and certainly aren’t at the level of teams of old. Add to that the advantage England have being at HQ and there is every reason to expect England to take this game. Not just to keep the winning streak and mind set going, but to break the NZ aura and start to develop one of their own. This is about building towards a WC in two years time. Come game one of that tournament England should be aiming to be the team everyone else is fearing. They’ve got the talent, the money and depth, and I think it’s fair that England fans have the expectation their team will deliver.

 

[Vieux Talonneur]

I think the optimistic forecasts are Hope winning out over Expectation.
But I'm looking forward to the game so much because, for a non-tournament game, there's a lot riding on the result.
If NZ win it will cast England as mere flat-track bullies who can look great against lower-ranked sides. Whereas if England win then it's a marker for genuine World Cup 2027 contention. (although they really need to beat SA to show that).

Yep, agreed that the result is more important than usual here.

We've beaten everyone in the top 10 in the last couple of years bar NZ and RSA who are ranked 1 and 2.

Borthwick seems to be hell bent focussed on the RWC which is fine but fundamentally means winning the damned thing. To do that you're going to have to beat one of, or both, the ABs or RSA and going into it in the knowledge you can beat them is massively different to hoping you might.

I'm sure the ABs will be a load better come 27, but right now we'll never have a better chance of downing them.

 

[Saintjay]

I don't think the past results are relevant. No one is disputing that NZ have an excellent record and are and very good team, consistently sitting in the top 3 teams in the world. But this isn't about history, it's about now. Right now England are on the ascendency. 9 wins on the trot, and raft of lions players available, new young quality players settling into their roles and a coaching team seemingly doing the same. NZ on the other hand made hard work of their last two games, and arguably could have lost both. They look less potent and certainly aren't at the level of teams of old. Add to that the advantage England have being at HQ and there is every reason to expect England to take this game. Not just to keep the winning streak and mind set going, but to break the NZ aura and start to develop one of their own. This is about building towards a WC in two years time. Come game one of that tournament England should be aiming to be the team everyone else is fearing. They've got the talent, the money and depth, and I think it's fair that England fans have the expectation their team will deliver.

All very true. Apart from SA are on a different level to everyone else. That's the bench mark. Everyone from 2-5 are in a dog fight vs each other and planning for the RWC.

I honestly think those 9 games are doing a lot of heavy lifting. One win vs top 5. Away in Argentina is a very good test result granted and a one point win over France.

If we consistently beat SA, Ireland, France, the AB's then I'll start believing we are feared.