The Wallabies' chances

[RoosTah]

Hey guys, so on the back of a wipe-out of the Australian Super Rugby teams against South African and Kiwi opposition this week in the Super Rugby and our lowest international ranking in history for the wallabies, I thought it might be time for the few Aussies on here (and others interested of course) to realistically put forward how well the Wallabies are likely to do at this year's world cup.

Because for me, at the moment I feel like we're going into this tournament with a level of baggage and poor form analogous to the England Cricket team at this year's ODI World Cup.

We won't know for sure until this year's Internationals have started, but based on the very poor form of our SR sides and an absolute horror past couple years for the Wallabies, I just have serious trouble seeing us even getting past our pool at this point. Sure, we have the wood on Wales, but that hoodoo has to be broken eventually because they're not far off us and I have a nasty feeling the world cup just might be the time it happens. Then of course we have England, who are really coming into their own right now and playing a much more complete game of rugby than they have for a long while. Playing them at home in a World Cup is going to be tough with their form, depth and resources - which frankly at this stage are beginning to feel like the inverse of our relationship with them in Rugby League.

Australia's problems are well documented, and mostly they're up front. If Pocock and Hooper stay fit, then we will have a very handy fetcher scenario, with Pocock starting and doing all the bruising work and Hooper coming on late to run them ragged whilst still being a force at the break-down. Meanwhile, up front if Moore and TPN stay fit we have good options at Hooker, but frankly I just don't think any of our props are much chop... Robinson and Kepu have been good for the Tahs this year and Slipper and Holmes are doing a solid job for the Reds, and Alexander is good at the Brumbies, but none are guys who would make the front row of any of the other top 3 (or even possibly top 5) sides' starting front rows. The problem is possibly even worse at Lock. At the Waratahs half the grunt comes from a South African, and so the Wallabies' are stuck with two pretty soft characters in Sam Carter and spent forces like Hoiles... There's no hard-as-nails guys like a Brad Thorne or Retallick in there to really push guys around. At number 8 things aren't so bad. Palu has been in pretty solid form the last couple years, and does his job. Higgenbothem too has been very effective at times, but he does tend to go missing at the back end, and you'd so probably prefer him off the bench.

Then of course we have the backs. Traditionally an area where you think Australia are pretty handy, but this year I'm not so sure... The Reds looked like they had an embarrassment of riches in their back-line this year, with JOC, 3 Code hopper K Hunt, Cooper and Genia all there. Now, they've rarely been on the pitch together to be fair, but all the same none of these guys have shown much to write home about this year when they have been on.

Over at the Waratahs and Brumbies, things look a little better with the Toomua/White Foley/Phipps combination performing reasonably well, and the outside backs doing a decent enough job some of the time. The trouble again is there are no world beaters here really and working out what combinations to go for is going to be tricky.

It's a bit early to say, but one thing I will say is I don't want Beale, Hunt or Lealiifano in our World Cup squad. Hunt is too raw, Beale has been missing since we won last year and Lealiifano's attraction has dramatically dipped since his goal kicking lost all it's potency after his injury in 2013.

In terms of certain starters from both sets, at this stage the only ones I could go for are Palu, Pocock and Moore in the forwards, and Folau, Speight and Kurindrani out back. The rest are all still a bit too uncertain for mine.

As for the world cup itself... well given this lack of certainty I am pretty concerned about us getting out of our pool, but even if we do we'll most likely come out second, in which case we will face the Springboks, and I don't see us pulling off another 2011 style miracle there. If by some miracle we win our pool, then we'll likely play Samoa/Scotland, in which case the semi will be and Ireland/Argentina/France affair.

That would be some good fortune, but we've lost to all those teams as well recently and at this stage I just don't think we're likely to beat both England AND Wales given the mess we seem to be in.

Thoughts?

 

[MotherRucker1]

It's an interesting discussion. I actually posted my thoughts about how Australia could improve their rugby in the "should Australia select overseas players" thread. Definitely more to it than just firing the coach (although funnily enough, I do think Cheika is overrated and a bit of a wolly at times). It'll be long term and it'll require money. If you read Robbie Deans book he claims there is a disconnect between the level of fitness due to the states having different physical conditioning regimes to the national body.

Think about when you had a decent coach in Robbie. I think Australia lead the All Blacks at half time in about 6 matches. It was that final quarter, or that final half hour that they started to slide away. Part of that is psychological, and how you fix that I'm not sure.

You definitely need world-class forwards if you're going to win a world cup, imo. Australia have a couple here and there with Hooper and Pocock, but the front row and locks need to be hard men, multi talented men, not just with good athleticism. That needs developing, probably at a grass roots level over a long period of time.

Your backline shouldn't be taken lightly, but I also don't see it as very intimidating. Apart from Folau. Do you think Folau could be a winger or center for the Wallabies? Critics largely ignore his great attacking stats and point out he isn't defensively great. Northern rugby killed JOC. Still a good player but nowhere near what he was. Genia and Cooper, regardless of time on the park, haven't lit the world on fire. Going into 2011 those sort of partnerships were on fire, and the Reds were in blistering form. This year the Wallabies don't even have that.

It's funny you bring this up because I was working out Australia's chances last night. Your pool is difficult. A fairly solid team is going to have to miss out. And I reckon it's between you and Wales. Now maybe if the World Cup was in this part of the world, then I'd back you. Or if you just had a bit more form in general. But Wales seems to have the wood over the Wallabies, though the games have been close historically. If Wales can beat you, the Springboks, Ireland and give the All Blacks a good run for their money (albeit for 60-70 minutes) then that'll be tough. As for England .. at home? Can't see that happening.

 

[RoosTah]

All good points MotherRucker1.

One slight caveat though - Wales certainly don't have the wood on us right now... They've lost 10 straight and only beaten us twice in the pro era. But they are close... and I'd argue with them it's become psychological. I'm just hoping that psychological edge can be extended to our World Cup match against them.

Forwards are our big problem for sure though. For me the front row is decent enough, even if it's not world class, but we're genuinely weak at lock, and that's a huge problem.

As for the backs, to be fair Genia has been playing pretty well in spite of his team lately, and there is talent there in general but it's just a matter of getting the balance right. Kurindrani has funnily enough been much better at international level lately, and Speight can be brilliant and both add needed power. But we need a genuinely world class 10 to unleash them and I'm not convinced we have one. Maybe someone can ask Jonathan Thurston to come over after the NRL finishes .

 

[TRF_heineken]

I think an area of concern for the Wobblies should be the fact that the Head coach of the National Team is also coaching a Super Rugby Team, and that his team is not performing as what is expected of them. If Super Rugby coaches can work out the style of play of Michael Cheikah, then what do you think the National Coaches would do??? By the time we get to the World Cup, there will be more than enough footage for coaches to analyse and disect, that there will be very little room for changes and then there shouldn't be any riddles as to why the aussies lose back-to-back matches...

 

[chippieolamus]

Sort of a side question, who will start at 7, Hooper or Pocock? Or will one be shifted over to 6?

 

[TRF Mr Fish]

It's a pity there aren't a few warm up matches before the World Cup.

If I was Cheika I'd throw caution to the wind and run with the backline that has actually tasted a fair bit of success in the past (with a few new players thrown in).

9 Genia
10 Cooper
11 Speight
12 Beale
13 Kuridrani
14 O'Connor
15 Folau

Throw Ashley-Cooper into the reserves alongside someone like Joe Tomane and a token halfback.

The forwards are a bit more difficult. Hooper is the incumbent 7 but you have to think that given the relative lack of depth Oz have in the loose forwards a Pocock/Hooper combo might appeal.

 

[TRF_heineken]

It's a pity there aren't a few warm up matches before the World Cup.

If I was Cheika I'd throw caution to the wind and run with the backline that has actually tasted a fair bit of success in the past (with a few new players thrown in).

9 Genia
10 Cooper
11 Speight
12 Beale
13 Kuridrani
14 O'Connor
15 Folau

Throw Ashley-Cooper into the reserves alongside someone like Joe Tomane and a token halfback.

The forwards are a bit more difficult. Hooper is the incumbent 7 but you have to think that given the relative lack of depth Oz have in the loose forwards a Pocock/Hooper combo might appeal.

Oh but there is... The Rugby Championship...

And SA arranged an extra warm-up game against Argentina after the RC...

 

[RoosTah]

Sort of a side question, who will start at 7, Hooper or Pocock? Or will one be shifted over to 6?

I think Cheika would start Pocock because of his combativeness and physicality and then bring on the faster and more mobile Hooper with 20 to go.

- - - Updated - - -

Oh but there is... The Rugby Championship...

And SA arranged an extra warm-up game against Argentina after the RC...

That's a clever strategy... warm AFTER...

 

[Jaguares]

The Wobs could win the WC despite their weakness at the tight-five. The champion will be between: NZ, SA, OZ & England. The only surprise could be Ireland but I'm not sure about it.

For me they will be the champions or the BIG disappointment of the tournament, there will be no middle ground. They are going to win ALL their games or they are going to lose their games against England & Wales and will be deleted in their own pool.

Last Spring tour they lost too many games, something that isn't normal, I doubt they are going to lose many games in Europe this year again if you look the stadistics.

9 Genia
10 Cooper
11 Speight
12 Beale
13 Kuridrani
14 O'Connor
15 Folau

The channel 1 with Cooper & Beale at the same time is a HUGE highway for the opposition.

Don't you like the Aussies, right?

 

[TRF_heineken]

I think Cheika would start Pocock because of his combativeness and physicality and then bring on the faster and more mobile Hooper with 20 to go.

- - - Updated - - -



That's a clever strategy... warm AFTER...

Yes it is... Because the main area of Focus for the Springboks is the World Cup. The RC will be preparation, and this warm-up game will be a way to give fringe players a final look before the big event commences... I think it's a clever idea...

 

[RoosTah]

Yes it is... Because the main area of Focus for the Springboks is the World Cup. The RC will be preparation, and this warm-up game will be a way to give fringe players a final look before the big event commences... I think it's a clever idea...

Haha yes, fair enough. I actually misread that first time and thought you'd written that it was a warm-up after the WC and not the RC. Slight difference and much less absurd for it to occur before the WC.

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

I wouldn't be overly concerned if I were an Aussie supporter as SR form rarely =/= test performances and this should be more true for Aus than for SA and NZ I'd argue. That said you are certainly in a tough pool and not going through is a real possibility but someone has to drop from what is surely the most ridiculous pool of death at a rugby WC ever thanks to a 'perfect storm' before the pool selections.

The Pro's:
You have some great backs as always and I'd argue are in a better spot than last year in this dept as you now have two legit options on the wings in the returned JOC and eligable Speight both of whom are light years ahead of the Honey badger it has to be said likeable as the bloke is.
You have some world class backrow options despite not having the depth here of say ourselves, England or France all you really need is 3. I'd start both Hooper and Pocock though. Yes, both are opensides but both also carry very well and I'd personally hate to have to only get only 80 minutes out of those world class (leading?) backrowers for the sake of convention and someone like Higginbotham who gets lost in big games IMO and is a liability ITO his discipline. Add Palu at 8 to sure up on grunt in the pack and make the hard yards (as if Pocock can't) and you are well on your way IMO.

The tight 5 though remains Aussies' weak spot and this I'd say is due to a lack of rugby culture at the grass roots apart from some few 'traditional' nodes. That said the Wallabies have perfected the art of playing of playing behind a beaten pack. Or at least had have. Moore, Kepu, Luke Jones and Will Skelton are a solid bunch though IMO to take as a staring platform. Just pray these forwards don't fall to injury like I am praying for some of our backs.

 

[ENZED-88]

Having spent my later teens and whole adult life in Sydney I've grown a soft spot for the Wobs, and can't see them missing out on the 1/4s. Saying that Moore and Hooper (and the injury prone Pocock an Tatafu) are the only guys in the pack who stand out, Higgers is a liability, like Greg Martin said Palu dogs it when the going gets tough and I can't help but LOL at a pack which may include sam Carter an Pek Cowan. But the aussie backs find ways to win even when their pack is getting bullied around the park and they've shown it time and time again. If Folau and the ever reliable AAC stay healthy QC finds some form Phipps learns how to pass Kurtley learns how to tackle and Kurindrani Stays awesome I can't see them going home early, on form these boys can turn a game in its head.

 

[TheSaffycen]

IMO I think that you guys will get a 1/4 final. I personally think that we will beat you, our pack will bully yours like it has the last 2 times. But we do seem to choke when big games come on. Wales is a weird one as they did beat SA, but the Aussies always seem to beat them. Who knows there isn't a guarantee that anyone will go through, Wales/Australia/England can all beat each other at anytime.

 

[Jbobo]

Australia will make it out of the group. I would put a 70% chance of them beating both England and Wales. Wales will beat England, and unfortunately for the host nation, they will be left scratching their heads at what went wrong.

 

[RedruthRFC]

Australia will make it out of the group. I would put a 70% chance of them beating both England and Wales. Wales will beat England, and unfortunately for the host nation, they will be left scratching their heads at what went wrong.

How are you pricing the individual matches? I can't imagine Australia being much shorter than evens for either match, which <> 70%.

 

[chippieolamus]

Australia will make it out of the group. I would put a 70% chance of them beating both England and Wales. Wales will beat England, and unfortunately for the host nation, they will be left scratching their heads at what went wrong.

Yeah, will probably be by about 60-70 points imo. Wales are superior in every area and were completely robbed of a 6N grandslam in Cardiff earlier this year.

 

[austingtir]

All I know is if you select Genia and Cooper you've got no shot. That said the other options arent a huge amount better.

 

[Jbobo]

Yeah, will probably be by about 60-70 points imo. Wales are superior in every area and were completely robbed of a 6N grandslam in Cardiff earlier this year.

Let me rephrase it for you so you can unclench your anus...

I think Wales will beat England.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

It's a pity there aren't a few warm up matches before the World Cup.

If I was Cheika I'd throw caution to the wind and run with the backline that has actually tasted a fair bit of success in the past (with a few new players thrown in).

9 Genia
10 Cooper
11 Speight
12 Beale
13 Kuridrani
14 O'Connor
15 Folau

Throw Ashley-Cooper into the reserves alongside someone like Joe Tomane and a token halfback.

The forwards are a bit more difficult. Hooper is the incumbent 7 but you have to think that given the relative lack of depth Oz have in the loose forwards a Pocock/Hooper combo might appeal.

The problem is that Copper is no controller at international level and is better coming off the bench. Foley is the better starting 10 to try and control matches for the first 60-70. Chieka will more than likely go for Foley, with the Tah's connection.

Also, the problem with a Hooper at 7 Pocock at 6 combo is that it limits the Wallabies line out options. It's certainly a no go if Skelton were picked on the same line up. If Palu is at 8 then it only gives the Wallabies 3 jumpers and teams would read and steal Wallabies line out ball too easily. For me Fardy at 6 and Pocock at 7 is the way to go.

I expect the Wallabies to start the RWC as;

1. Slipper
2. Moore
3. Kepu
4. Carter
5. Simmons
6. Fardy
7. Pocock
8 . Palu
9. Phipps
10. Foley
11. JOC
12. Toomua
13. Kurindrani
14. Speight
15. Folau