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Rugby Union
Mitre 10 Cup
[2014 ITM Cup] Round 3
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<blockquote data-quote="TRF Mr Fish" data-source="post: 667205" data-attributes="member: 20892"><p>Right, here's what I would be betting on if I were a betting man!</p><p></p><p><strong>Taranaki @ $3.00</strong></p><p>This is an absolute steal. I would probably have Taranaki as favourites for this match regardless of how much they're paying to win! With a new halves combo, a new centre pairing, a new tight five (bar hooker) and new flankers, this is basically a completely different Waikato team from the one that has shown so much promise in the last two rounds. In contrast Taranaki have only really tweaked their lineup and should be able to do some damage. I can only see Waikato winning if they get a few tries against the run of play.</p><p></p><p><strong>Canterbury @ $1.02</strong></p><p>Northland are paying $12 to win, but I just can't see it happening, even with the vast number number of changes Canterbury have made to their lineup. Perhaps if the game were being played up north then things would be a bit different.</p><p></p><p><strong>Manawatu @ $4.20</strong></p><p>The above comments from Don basically sum up my thoughts too. Wellington should be stronger than they've been in the last couple of matches due to their returning players, but Manawatu showed some good signs in beating Northland and Wellington seem to get little advantage from playing at home. It will either be a close win to Manawatu, or a thrashing by Wellington.</p><p></p><p><strong>Hawke's Bay @ $2.80</strong></p><p>I think Counties should be slight favourites due to their home advantage and of course the fact that they're defending the Shield. They will still be without Baden Kerr, however, and their performance against Otago was far from convincing. With a few more X-factor players in the back Otago could have won. In contrast, Hawke's Bay will have West, Fruean and Dagg who should be able to do some damage. </p><p></p><p><strong>Southland @ 1.87</strong></p><p>Even odds for this match. I think Otago are the stronger team but Southland have been very good this season and the set piece and Sopoaga has been on form with the boot. This will be another turgid affair with Southland likely coming out on top by a penalty or three.</p><p></p><p>No odds yet for the North Harbour/Waikato match this Saturday, but I think that Waikato will get up providing they bring back McKenzie, Lienert-Brown, Tucker, Tameifuna and Hohneck. This derby has always been pretty good in the past, I might have to pay Harbour Stadium a visit!</p><p></p><p><strong>Tasman @ 2.55</strong></p><p>I'm surprised at how well Tasman are paying to beat Auckland. I think that Tasman are the form team in the competition, besides Canterbury of course. Their backline may not be quite as exciting as Auckland's (though it's close!), but their forwards are of a higher standard in my opinion and they perform better as a team. Maybe Bankes will even pull out another 20 pointer.</p><p></p><p>Given the number of high earning encounters this weekend, I'd probably be tempted to tip Wellington over Manawatu as a slightly less risky option (they surely can't have three awful games in a row) and stick with the rest of the picks.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="TRF Mr Fish, post: 667205, member: 20892"] Right, here's what I would be betting on if I were a betting man! [B]Taranaki @ $3.00[/B] This is an absolute steal. I would probably have Taranaki as favourites for this match regardless of how much they're paying to win! With a new halves combo, a new centre pairing, a new tight five (bar hooker) and new flankers, this is basically a completely different Waikato team from the one that has shown so much promise in the last two rounds. In contrast Taranaki have only really tweaked their lineup and should be able to do some damage. I can only see Waikato winning if they get a few tries against the run of play. [B]Canterbury @ $1.02[/B] Northland are paying $12 to win, but I just can't see it happening, even with the vast number number of changes Canterbury have made to their lineup. Perhaps if the game were being played up north then things would be a bit different. [B]Manawatu @ $4.20[/B] The above comments from Don basically sum up my thoughts too. Wellington should be stronger than they've been in the last couple of matches due to their returning players, but Manawatu showed some good signs in beating Northland and Wellington seem to get little advantage from playing at home. It will either be a close win to Manawatu, or a thrashing by Wellington. [B]Hawke's Bay @ $2.80[/B] I think Counties should be slight favourites due to their home advantage and of course the fact that they're defending the Shield. They will still be without Baden Kerr, however, and their performance against Otago was far from convincing. With a few more X-factor players in the back Otago could have won. In contrast, Hawke's Bay will have West, Fruean and Dagg who should be able to do some damage. [B]Southland @ 1.87[/B] Even odds for this match. I think Otago are the stronger team but Southland have been very good this season and the set piece and Sopoaga has been on form with the boot. This will be another turgid affair with Southland likely coming out on top by a penalty or three. No odds yet for the North Harbour/Waikato match this Saturday, but I think that Waikato will get up providing they bring back McKenzie, Lienert-Brown, Tucker, Tameifuna and Hohneck. This derby has always been pretty good in the past, I might have to pay Harbour Stadium a visit! [B]Tasman @ 2.55[/B] I'm surprised at how well Tasman are paying to beat Auckland. I think that Tasman are the form team in the competition, besides Canterbury of course. Their backline may not be quite as exciting as Auckland's (though it's close!), but their forwards are of a higher standard in my opinion and they perform better as a team. Maybe Bankes will even pull out another 20 pointer. Given the number of high earning encounters this weekend, I'd probably be tempted to tip Wellington over Manawatu as a slightly less risky option (they surely can't have three awful games in a row) and stick with the rest of the picks. [/QUOTE]
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[2014 ITM Cup] Round 3
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