2014 Six Nations..

[Peat]

anybody making a case for Ireland ?

Yes, but its filled with ifs and maybes.

If Joe Schmidt is quickly able to establish his mark and communicate plan
And Ireland are fortunate with injuries and form
And the raw talents around the Ireland set-up grow up quick this season

They could be favourites.

The backline at full potential is staggeringly dangerous. Murray now looks a lot more like a true international scrum-half, Sexton is entering his pomp and they are overwhelmed with back three options. There are question marks over who plays at 12, but there are 3-4 really good young talents, so one of them should step up. Most of them can make an impact on a big stage already when in form. I feel the only place where depth is an issue is 9, 13, 9 again, possibly 10 and also 9.

Up front there's a few more issues. The depth seems frailer. I think they sorely need the Manchild to step up and force his way in simply to add an extra source of extreme physicality. I don't know where he starts, just get him on the park. But if everyone is fit and in form then its up a good enough unit.

Really, I think Ireland are a year out - they get a kinder schedule next year and a lot of fringe players will be better for it. But if everything goes right they do have all the ingredients.

 

[Big Ewis]

^ yeh...but generally their attack is capricious. They'll put on a show in Cardiff on opening night (and suck in the second half of that very game) then not win a single game after that, and they neither have the scrum, nor the attacking consistency to claim a serious role it seems...they do have talent in the backs though, no doubt.

 

[Crapspray]

The Paris match opener is for France to prove their worth. Enough about potential, England should put up a strong fight and go home empty-handed.

I suppose it comes down to the cliché - it depends which French side turns up. England have had good results in Paris the last few times in the Six Nations. France, being the dastardly sods they are, could play their game of the year.

That said, I think whoever wins that first game will be the favourites. France have the advantage of no Lions tour, and England because of the negative factors listed by Peat against Wales and the uncertainty surrounding Ireland. I really can't see Italy beating England or France. Nor Scotland. Murrayfield is always a banana skin, but Scotland still seem very weak. Considering the team England sent there in 2012 and won with, it really doesn't feel as daunting a place as it used to.

 

[lynam1104]

Like Peat said it's hard to tell with Ireland right now we'll be able to say a lot more after the AI's.

Firstly the AI's will provide an incredibly tough challenge for Joe and the team. Samoa will really test if we have the pack to win a 6N and more. Aus will do the same to the backs and well NZ will test everything about the team.

In terms of what we need to do to be ***le contenders

1. Need to sure up our Line-out it was poor last season, shouldn't be a problem if POC stays fit but he hasn't played a full season in a while and its hard to see him not picking something up.

2. A sensible game plan, something I think Joe will have that sorted. To elaborate a bit however, he need to use the talented backs that Peat refereed to much more effectily, they're some very good exciting players who've spent Kidneys reign chasing highballs.

3. A game plan that suites the team we're playing, similar to the last one but just be smart about it we're not going to beat SA in a physical battle.

4. Look at some succession, this is something Kidney really neglected and it led to the horror show that was last years 6N. There isn't an obvious time to do this in the foreseeable future so I say we should throw some guys in this autumn test them against the best and if they look good great if don't panic give them some chances later on, if their still preforming.

Thats all thats come off the top of my head and it all seems pretty obvious to me, however Its been that way since sometime in 2010.

 

[Peat]

^ yeh...but generally their attack is capricious. They'll put on a show in Cardiff on opening night (and suck in the second half of that very game) then not win a single game after that, and they neither have the scrum, nor the attacking consistency to claim a serious role it seems...they do have talent in the backs though, no doubt.

Ireland's scrum is fine when everyone's playing at their potential. The emergence of Lutton, Hagan, Moore and Archer is one of the reasons I think they might be a year out though. Its the lineout that has been the issue, and its surprising how little flak there was for Smal over it. Hopefully with Best back in form (stay there please Rory), POC fit, and a fresh eye in Plumtree, they can sort that as well.

The lack of attacking consistency has come from a number of things, not least Declan Kidney and Les Kiss looking out of their depth in the attacking role. I would also say their breakdown work has been lacking (Schmidt will focus on that a lot), they are short of ball carriers up front (hence the importance of Henderson) and that Murray has been inconsistent with no real competition. The step up he took on the Lions tour is huge for Ireland. The fact his competition is still Reddan and Boss, not so good. Throw in a poor gameplan and, well, no real chance for the outside backs. D'Arcy has looked a faded force but that mightn't have been true, he never had a platform.

Schmidt and the coming generation can bring consistency. If they do so, Ireland will be a serious force.

 

[ratsapprentice]

I feel we're overdue 2 big French performances, particularly at home.
Just a gut feeling.

 

[Big Ewis]

Ireland's scrum is fine when everyone's playing at their potential. The emergence of Lutton, Hagan, Moore and Archer is one of the reasons I think they might be a year out though. Its the lineout that has been the issue, and its surprising how little flak there was for Smal over it. Hopefully with Best back in form (stay there please Rory), POC fit, and a fresh eye in Plumtree, they can sort that as well.

The lack of attacking consistency has come from a number of things, not least Declan Kidney and Les Kiss looking out of their depth in the attacking role. I would also say their breakdown work has been lacking (Schmidt will focus on that a lot), they are short of ball carriers up front (hence the importance of Henderson) and that Murray has been inconsistent with no real competition. The step up he took on the Lions tour is huge for Ireland. The fact his competition is still Reddan and Boss, not so good. Throw in a poor gameplan and, well, no real chance for the outside backs. D'Arcy has looked a faded force but that mightn't have been true, he never had a platform.

Schmidt and the coming generation can bring consistency. If they do so, Ireland will be a serious force.

this may be, and thx for answering. But I'm personally not impressed or convinced...my overall feeling from what I've seen in the past year from Ireland just makes me reluctant to consider them ***le contenders. I'll gladly concede this sentiment if Ireland go on a tear, or at least win the ***le, as I have no pride saying these things - but they are just my rational assessment at this point...wouldn't exactly bet on them lifting the trophy...

I feel we're overdue 2 big French performances, particularly at home.
Just a gut feeling.

yeh well, who the fk knows...I feel like that too. And with France, it's all about "gut feelings" man ! leave the rational calculations aside, they're not worth a whole lot here...
Maybe France will explode in the EOYT, to at least seriously threaten both SA and NZ til the 80th min, if not better, who knows...and then will put up a mediocre 6N. Or vice versa: look mediocre/crappy in November and then actually pick up a Grand Slam in March..

And honestly, like I said: not really worth the breakdown analysis of the team in detail...big names, big scrum, basically all positions covered with top level personnel....but who - tha - fokk - knows.

 

[Peat]

Looking at England - no doubt we have the talent there, and we also have reasonable amounts of depth, which might be important in a Lions year. The issue is approach. If we stick with the Saracens-esque game plan we have a shot, but is it going to deliver five wins? Probably not, it doesn't establish a clear enough dominance and in the Five Nations you'll probably get unlucky in one of the games. Is it going to deliver a high enough points difference to secure the Championship? Not when we're visiting both Murrayfield and Rome imo. If we are to be favourites the way things are, it is solely by default. I do not think the standard of the Six Nations is particularly high right now.

The main hope for me lies in the possibility of us adopting a new and aggressive mindset. No guarantees that will happen. Also, either the pack needs to step up a notch and deliver constant armchair rides, or the backline needs to substantially buck its ideas up. Gloucester's tight five imploding could not have been worse timed considering the number of potentially crucial young backs there.

All in all... we'll have to wait and see. But I'm not overly optimistic.

this may be, and thx for answering. But I'm personally not impressed or convinced...my overall feeling from what I've seen in the past year from Ireland just makes me reluctant to consider them ***le contenders. I'll gladly concede this sentiment if Ireland go on a tear, or at least win the ***le, as I have no pride saying these things - but they are just my rational assessment at this point...wouldn't exactly bet on them lifting the trophy...

As any good stockbroker will tell you, Past Performance is not a guarantee of Future Results. Don't look at what they have done, look at what they have coming.

 

[Feicarsinn]

Ireland's scrum is fine when everyone's playing at their potential. The emergence of Lutton, Hagan, Moore and Archer is one of the reasons I think they might be a year out though. Its the lineout that has been the issue, and its surprising how little flak there was for Smal over it. Hopefully with Best back in form (stay there please Rory), POC fit, and a fresh eye in Plumtree, they can sort that as well.

The lack of attacking consistency has come from a number of things, not least Declan Kidney and Les Kiss looking out of their depth in the attacking role. I would also say their breakdown work has been lacking (Schmidt will focus on that a lot), they are short of ball carriers up front (hence the importance of Henderson) and that Murray has been inconsistent with no real competition. The step up he took on the Lions tour is huge for Ireland. The fact his competition is still Reddan and Boss, not so good. Throw in a poor gameplan and, well, no real chance for the outside backs. D'Arcy has looked a faded force but that mightn't have been true, he never had a platform.

Schmidt and the coming generation can bring consistency. If they do so, Ireland will be a serious force.

I'd agree with that. A large part of me wants to see Shane Jennings at 7 for Ireland in November. In Heaslip and O'Brien we have two very strong ball carriers, but it's been a facet of their game that's had to been curtailed due to the lack of a genuine openside meaning they have more breakdown work to do. When we had Ferris it was less noticeable as he was off crushing skulls, but the two boys haven't had a good crack at doing some regular carrying in green for an awful long time.

We could be stunning. I mean seriously, seriously good. It's been a long time since I've looked at an Irish time that's had so much attacking flair at its disposal. We have back three options coming out of our arse and a serious set of half backs at our disposal. If we can lay the platform up front then we shouldn't fear anyone in Europe. That's a big if mind you, but I'm hopeful bordering on confident that we'll bring home at least one championship within the next four seasons.

 

[Peat]

I'd agree with that. A large part of me wants to see Shane Jennings at 7 for Ireland in November. In Heaslip and O'Brien we have two very strong ball carriers, but it's been a facet of their game that's had to been curtailed due to the lack of a genuine openside meaning they have more breakdown work to do. When we had Ferris it was less noticeable as he was off crushing skulls, but the two boys haven't had a good crack at doing some regular carrying in green for an awful long time.

Not the only flanker who could do it of course - McLaughlin gets through a lot of donkey work for Leinster when I've seen him, and Henry has a lot in common with Jennings imo. The fact they're all in the squad says to me Schmidt is thinking very hard about such an angle...

... although if I'm honest I just want to see a Henderson-O'Brien flanker pairing because it would be lulzy.

 

[Big Ewis]

As any good stockbroker will tell you, Past Performance is not a guarantee of Future Results. Don't look at what they have done, look at what they have coming.

an interesting debate: past performance VS team on paper today and what they can do.
It's funny because I think more according to the latter, but I remind myself that I've been wrong many times looking at current form of teams when it was really the historical tendency that was at work and the outcome, 'traditional'. I'll remind myself of tendencies.

for e.g. the whole FRA-ENG-IRE triangle tendency. France beats Ireland like, all the time, and with big margins often. England beats France more than it should, and more convincingly than they should; they're just our cryptonite psychologically. And Ireland in recent years have developed the fervent determination to beat England consistently.
Maybe the tables have turned: France hasn't beaten Ireland in 2 tries now, England finally broke the spell of losing in Ireland last year...but of course, England still beats France in matches it shouldn't !

So all I'm saying is, for this year's 'crunch' (Fra Eng), I MUST keep in mind that it's England coming to town, as opposed to just looking at our teams respectively on paper and anticipating who would win in Paris as if there wasn't more at stake than some Rugby match, and we were two neutral sides.

And I'm just making the point clear. Obviously you know what I mean.