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International Test Matches
2016 World Rugby U20 Championship
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<blockquote data-quote="RedruthRFC" data-source="post: 803373" data-attributes="member: 58362"><p>This is a common misconception. Bookies don't make their money by being better at making predictions than shrewd punters, they make their money by having an overround in their book and managing their exposure. Without this, they would have no edge over informed punters in competitions like the JRWC. Market setters like form, which in U20 rugby can be very misleading (e.g. Scotland beating England in the 6N) but don't have the resources to perform the kind of analysis needed to make a decent attempt at pricing a market like this tournament on which very little money is going to be wagered.</p><p></p><p>Edit: 1/10 or more would be a crazy short price in a final of a competition like this.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="RedruthRFC, post: 803373, member: 58362"] This is a common misconception. Bookies don't make their money by being better at making predictions than shrewd punters, they make their money by having an overround in their book and managing their exposure. Without this, they would have no edge over informed punters in competitions like the JRWC. Market setters like form, which in U20 rugby can be very misleading (e.g. Scotland beating England in the 6N) but don't have the resources to perform the kind of analysis needed to make a decent attempt at pricing a market like this tournament on which very little money is going to be wagered. Edit: 1/10 or more would be a crazy short price in a final of a competition like this. [/QUOTE]
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