Menu
Forums
New posts
Search forums
What's new
New posts
Latest activity
Log in
Register
What's new
Search
Search
Search titles and first posts only
Search titles only
By:
New posts
Search forums
Menu
Log in
Register
Install the app
Install
Help Support The Rugby Forum :
Forums
Rugby Union
Super Rugby
[2017 Super Rugby] Round 7: Sharks vs. Jaguares (08/04/2017)
JavaScript is disabled. For a better experience, please enable JavaScript in your browser before proceeding.
You are using an out of date browser. It may not display this or other websites correctly.
You should upgrade or use an
alternative browser
.
Reply to thread
Message
<blockquote data-quote="Xapi" data-source="post: 847606" data-attributes="member: 56815"><p>There's a very high likelyhood of there being no wild cards from Aus and SA1 conference. This means that there is a chance of 2 wildcards in NZ and 2 in SA2. I grant that 3 NZ and 1 SA2 is probably the most likely possibility, but I wouldn't rule out the 2-2 split.</p><p></p><p>I kinda like in these cases to pull numbers out of thin air to see what the odds are, so I'd say:</p><p></p><p>N° of WC per conference:</p><p></p><p>3 NZ, 1 SA2: 60%</p><p>2 NZ, 2 SA2: 30%</p><p>2NZ, 1 SA2, 1 Other: 10%</p><p></p><p>In the 70% chance of 1 SA2 WC, I'd give it a 10% chance of the Lions crumbling down spectacularily to go down to third.</p><p></p><p>That gives you 30% + 70% * 10% = 37% chance of both Jags and Sharks qualifying. That's probably a bit high, but I wouldn't go much below 20%</p><p></p><p>You can adjust those numbers to reach your own conclusions, but I think it's a possibility. It is also what would happen if the season ended now.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Xapi, post: 847606, member: 56815"] There's a very high likelyhood of there being no wild cards from Aus and SA1 conference. This means that there is a chance of 2 wildcards in NZ and 2 in SA2. I grant that 3 NZ and 1 SA2 is probably the most likely possibility, but I wouldn't rule out the 2-2 split. I kinda like in these cases to pull numbers out of thin air to see what the odds are, so I'd say: N° of WC per conference: 3 NZ, 1 SA2: 60% 2 NZ, 2 SA2: 30% 2NZ, 1 SA2, 1 Other: 10% In the 70% chance of 1 SA2 WC, I'd give it a 10% chance of the Lions crumbling down spectacularily to go down to third. That gives you 30% + 70% * 10% = 37% chance of both Jags and Sharks qualifying. That's probably a bit high, but I wouldn't go much below 20% You can adjust those numbers to reach your own conclusions, but I think it's a possibility. It is also what would happen if the season ended now. [/QUOTE]
Verification
Post reply
Forums
Rugby Union
Super Rugby
[2017 Super Rugby] Round 7: Sharks vs. Jaguares (08/04/2017)
Top