6 Nations HYPE Thread

[TommiG88]

For Ireland or England a Slam is the goal.
If Ireland win in but lose in Twickenham on Paddys Day it will be like a lost tournament.

Like you've done to us a couple of times

 

[munstermuffin]

Like you've done to us a couple of times

Well as I said England too will fail anything less than Slam will be a fail.

 

[TommiG88]

Like you've done to us a couple of times

I don't think we'll win. I think we will lose to Scotland and Ireland.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Don't know what other brand Brunel is supposed to play. Cancan rugby?

Funny to think we've placed SEVEN clubs in European 1/4 finals with a league full of unfit fatties and generally not bothered players.

It clearly doesn't translate well to the international game though. Most club sides can't handle the size of French packs but international sides can easily.

Clermont fit and La Rochelle at home are different gravy from the rest playing with great tempo but I haven't seen France play like that in years resembling Montpellier far more for large portions of the game, Montpellier don't cut it in Europe.

 

[Which Tyler]

Well as I said England too will fail anything less than Slam will be a fail.

England expect to fail then?
I think expectations are generally to win 4 from 5

 

[FrenchFan]

I
Clermont fit and La Rochelle at home are different gravy from the rest playing with great tempo but I haven't seen France play like that in years resembling Montpellier far more for large portions of the game, Montpellier don't cut it in Europe.

Can't see what Brunel is going to get out of his squad. It's been argued his staff is even more inexperienced than the squad

no Clermont backs except for Lamerat - Parra Lopez Fofana Penaud Raka Nakaitaci - are out. All the Xfactor players and many dynamic ball carriers are out. Camille Chat (who is a better player than his captain) is out - Brice Dulin as fullback out. Picamoles left out. Everyone here knows how this is going to end for the union.

Ireland and England to walk it in Paris. Great shopping and selfies for all!

 

[JJFlash]

Can't see what Brunel is going to get out of his squad. It's been argued his staff is even more inexperienced than the squad

no Clermont backs except for Lamerat - Parra Lopez Fofana Penaud Raka Nakaitaci - are out. All the Xfactor players and many dynamic ball carriers are out. Camille Chat (who is a better player than his captain) is out - Brice Dulin as fullback out. Picamoles left out. Everyone here knows how this is going to end for the union.

Ireland and England to walk it in Paris. Great shopping and selfies for all!

There once was a day a written-off France would come back and prove you wrong, but for this 6N I think they'll be doing well to win one match!

 

[FrenchFan]

There once was a day a written-off France would come back and prove you wrong, but for this 6N I think they'll be doing well to win one match!

if you look at the squad closely - age and caps - the message coming out of the union is pretty clear: RWC 2019 is a write-off. And it is.

Let's focus on 2023. Let's pick a 19 yo flyhalf throw him at the deep end and see what happens.

I can hear the excuses already. 'Young squad' 'Building for 2023' blabla they will use these excuses all the way to 2023.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

France are likely to go with Dupont and Jalibert aren't they? To superstars in the making but to start that against Murray, Sexton and the Irish back row shouldn't end well.

 

[RedruthRFC]

The Alpha Bro makes some fair points about Ireland's chances, although the markets have them as a 1/2 favourite in Paris. At the outset of the tournament, I'd say that it represents about the same size of a banana skin as England's trip to Murrayfield.

For me, it all comes down to how much emphasis you place on statistical analysis versus fundamental. The former would tell you that Ireland are more likely to slip up in weeks 1 to 4 than England the latter I believe would have it pretty close. The former would tell you that the home side wins in week 5 (Ireland only won by 4 points at home last time out), I believe that the latter predicts an Ireland win - England struggled for a lack of front foot ball last time around and will be worse off again in this regard without Billy V, Hughes and Sinkler.

Betfair now have prices up for every individual game, which allows me to clarify my thoughts on the prices much better than the rambling post I drafted yesterday before realising it made little sense!

To try and keep things simple, I'm trying to assess the odds of the winner as the odds of two separate events happening - each team coming into the final day unbeaten and each team winning on the final day. According to the market, an Irish victory in Paris (1/2) is more likely than and English one in Edinburgh (4/7). Given that Ireland's only other away match is in Rome and that they're marginally stronger favourites than England to beat Wales at home, Ireland are much more likely to go into the final day as favourites than England are (2.08 vs 2.95). Initially I found this surprising given what we've agreed on this thread about Ireland being more prone to a slip up than England, but given that England have two dangerous away matches to Ireland's one, it makes perfect sense.

Now on to the second outcome (victory on the final day), England are priced as 4/7, while Ireland are 6/4 underdogs. Multiplying this through the offs of the first event occurring, we see that the true betting odds of an English Grand Slam, based on a five win accumulator is 4.64 and Ireland 5.21. The interesting thing for those of us who aren't confident in England beating Ireland is how far the match odds would have to move for Ireland to overtake England as favourites. If you price England as 5/6 and Ireland as 6/5, it comes out as England 5.41, Ireland 5.48, so at some point close to this, as Ireland edge slightly closer to evens for the win at Twickenham.

TL;DR? The question of who should be favourite comes down to how you view England vs Ireland. If you think Ireland should be odds on, then they're almost certainly favourites for the tournament and certainly favourites for the Grand Slam.

 

[TommiG88]

France are likely to go with Dupont and Jalibert aren't they? To superstars in the making but to start that against Murray, Sexton and the Irish back row shouldn't end well.

I hope France decimate you

 

[Vieux Talonneur]

I've been saying it for a while, but our luck will run out soon enough. We've been winning ugly for a while, and while that's good for results and bragging, we're not learning anything from it. Results are great but you want performances too.
There have been a few games we could/should have lost but for the bounce of a ball or a contentious decision.
We seen to be happy winning ugly, and not trying to improve.

Sums up my feelings perfectly. Winning's a great habit, but our ranking flatters to deceive. Despite results I've never had the feeling that we're building momentum towards a world cup winning team.

Even though RSA and FRA have been pants (and AUS quite often too), we'd still have very few contenders for a world XV, let alone guaranteed shoe in starters. Binny, if fit, perhaps. Faz would prob make the bench, the likes of Mako, George, Lawes and Watson might be in a scramble to join him. Even though its a team game, you need stand out individuals, the stars who keep opposing coaches awake at night. I just don't think we have enough of them, or natural leaders.

Without wishing to hark back to 2003....I'm going to hark back to 2003. Johnno was a standout, but he had support from Thompson, Vickery, Hill, Back and Dayglo, all of whom were probably the best in the world at their positions at one time or another. Ditto Wilko and Robinson behind. How many of the current squad have comparable standing? How many would make the AB starting XV?

Eddie stands unquestioned because of his record. That's fair enough. But a defeat or two could bring a shed load of questions for him. This far out from 03 we pretty much knew the team, the rump of whom had already played together for years. Hopefully Eddie has a much clearer idea than I do on the 19 team!

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

I hope France decimate you

I said shouldn't. I'm far from confident, we don't win in Paris!

 

[TommiG88]

I said shouldn't. I'm far from confident, we don't win in Paris!

I worry about the French beating up our pack.

 

[Which Tyler]

I worry about the French beating up our pack.

Just... leave a jar of Nutella on the side-lines; they'll be too distracted to play rugby:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-42826028

 

[RedruthRFC]

Eddie stands unquestioned because of his record. That's fair enough. But a defeat or two could bring a shed load of questions for him. This far out from 03 we pretty much knew the team, the rump of whom had already played together for years. Hopefully Eddie has a much clearer idea than I do on the 19 team!

Great post, I don't disagree with a single thing you've said. I get really wound up by the lazy minded rhetoric from casual supporters / zealots that Eddie Jones is unimpeachable because of his record. The vast majority of wins under Jones are wins that should be a given for any England coach either based on the lower quality of opposition or home advantage. The 2016 Grand Slam was a pleasant surprise and it was good to see some consistency, but there wasn't a standout performance, the turnaround against Australia on their own patch was very impressive but what has been since then?

To an extent England are suffering by virtue of their lofty world ranking - in second place, far enough away from third that only a win over New Zealand would constitute an unexpected victory, with a loss to anyone else representing an unexpected loss. The big win against Scotland was impressive as was the win over Australia, but I've seen nothing to make me think that he's forging a side to beat the All Blacks, or to a lesser extent Ireland. New Zealand are the template for a world class team and Ireland (and latterly the Lions) have shown the world the blueprint for how to stop them. I don't see any evidence of Jones' England side being capable of following this blueprint.

 

[MikeTheNative]

I don't think anyone is above criticism even if they are winning. Eddie's record does give him the benefit of the doubt though. England has had two good years but now need to show that they are able to carry those results up to the world cup next year.

 

[FrenchFan]

France are likely to go with Dupont and Jalibert aren't they? To superstars in the making but to start that against Murray, Sexton and the Irish back row shouldn't end well.

I can't wait to watch Brunel use another 76 players before the RWC. Surely in true FFR fashion he will select his own family if he can.

And then, somehow, as the RWC draws closer - NEXT YEAR AAAAARGH - and faced with the inescapable truth that 'MERDE WE STILL DON'T HAVE A TEAM' - the union will blame the totally unexpected severity of Global Warming in Top 14 + the fact there is just not quite enough canon fodder oops young talent that they could mess up before the clubs do. In spite of having selected almost more players than the entire rugby population of Scotland.

Do you know what the union are really going to get in the end? One last push out of the Top 10.

They are ranked 9 in da world. Sitting precariously on the precipice. A nudge will do.

LNR Paul Goze and the Top 14 presidents will be more than happy to oblige.

 

[TommiG88]

I think I'm in the anyone but Scotland group for this 6N. They've become the new Wales.

 

[BPM]

Great post, I don't disagree with a single thing you've said. I get really wound up by the lazy minded rhetoric from casual supporters / zealots that Eddie Jones is unimpeachable because of his record. The vast majority of wins under Jones are wins that should be a given for any England coach either based on the lower quality of opposition or home advantage. The 2016 Grand Slam was a pleasant surprise and it was good to see some consistency, but there wasn't a standout performance, the turnaround against Australia on their own patch was very impressive but what has been since then?

To an extent England are suffering by virtue of their lofty world ranking - in second place, far enough away from third that only a win over New Zealand would constitute an unexpected victory, with a loss to anyone else representing an unexpected loss. The big win against Scotland was impressive as was the win over Australia, but I've seen nothing to make me think that he's forging a side to beat the All Blacks, or to a lesser extent Ireland. New Zealand are the template for a world class team and Ireland (and latterly the Lions) have shown the world the blueprint for how to stop them. I don't see any evidence of Jones' England side being capable of following this blueprint.

100% agree.

Results have masked the fact that we still have lots of sub-par areas of the team and no obvious b-plan when we're not playing well.

The Scotland game is really the only one that stands out as a complete performance. Other recent results such as the win against Australia in the Autumn have really flattered us.

I expect us to be there or there abouts in the 6 Nations, particularly with key players missing from the other nations. Obviously I want us do well, but winning again will probably continue to paper over the cracks.

I expect us to beat Italy away and Wales at home. Murrayfield will be tricky, but with Scotland's injuries in the front row, I think we will win. France is the more likely banana skin IMO. Their problems are well documented, but they have the pack to bully us and our backs are poor when the pack doesn't at least have parity. If we can come through that, Ireland, as always, will be a massive game and could well be a grand slam decider.