^ very well written and interesting in concept, neiliog.
I'm a tad less optimistic about France, but this is probably due to them being my side, we tend to expect the worst out of defense. And the Lions thing is a little bit ridiculous for me, but that's unimportant.
It's courageous of you to emit a future rankings prediction, so I'll try. Of course injuries may occur before the start of the tournament, and yadi yada, but what the heck let's try something here.
Let's go with France, out of enthusiasm, but I think Wales have a real chance too with England never too far and Ireland a much improved, well coached side:
1 - France
2 - Wales
3 - Ireland
4 - England
5 - Scotland
6 - Italy
It feels too low for England to be just 4th, but there are only so many slots.
* France has all the advantages we've talked about, but also have all the disadvantages we've talked about as well...
* Wales benefit from 3 games at home, but have Twickenham and Aviva this year. I can see them taking revenge on the Irish and just losing one match the whole tournament though.
* Ireland are strong and have 3 home matches out of 5, but the two away ones are Paris and London. Tough, tough...probably two losses to be straight-forward about it.
* England are always tough and organized and have a simple enough style that they won't fail badly any time soon like other sides might (Aus, Fra, Arg, Ita, Ire - this 2013 year). But they're too one-dimensional, badly need some back play and have injuries there, and have just two home matches. And both Ireland and Wales will be a tremendous handful for the poms ! Plus, besides Paris, Murrayfield and Rome may prove more tricky than we all expect this year.
* Scotland are fine, but need just that little extra. They've got 3 away matches, but are hosting France and England, who knows, they may pull something interesting off there. Aviva and Millennium might be a bit too much to ask for, but Rome is within grasp and more for Kelly Brown's men.
* Italy: miserable form. Not bad - *miserable*. They've no hope of upsetting France this time as they travel to Paris, Cardiff before that, and Dublin later in the schedule. Their home games may be interesting though: Scotland and England. I'm hopeful they might find their good home form again and push the English even further this year.
I thought at the end of last year's edition that 2014 would be the year when they finally upset England for the first time, but based on recent form, and consistently that, I doubt it a bit more now. But who knows. Fingers crossed for our Trans-Alpine cousins, la Squadra Azzurra.
