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The Clubhouse Bar
A Political Thread pt. 2
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<blockquote data-quote="ncurd" data-source="post: 1065141" data-attributes="member: 72205"><p>Yeah it was shocking its not the lowest for a by-election but still at the lower end having a quick look at by-election in 2005-2010 (Blair/Brown at least popular and similarish seat advantage) you need it at roughly 40-50 to change hands but that only happens if its really up for grabs and a 17 point swing is the most to hope for and 20.5% was what was required here.</p><p></p><p>Basically its an unremarkable result for an incumbent party on by-election in normal times. Compared to Hartlepool it shows the government is possibly normally vulnerable rather than impervious.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="ncurd, post: 1065141, member: 72205"] Yeah it was shocking its not the lowest for a by-election but still at the lower end having a quick look at by-election in 2005-2010 (Blair/Brown at least popular and similarish seat advantage) you need it at roughly 40-50 to change hands but that only happens if its really up for grabs and a 17 point swing is the most to hope for and 20.5% was what was required here. Basically its an unremarkable result for an incumbent party on by-election in normal times. Compared to Hartlepool it shows the government is possibly normally vulnerable rather than impervious. [/QUOTE]
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A Political Thread pt. 2
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