Menu
Forums
New posts
Search forums
What's new
New posts
Latest activity
Log in
Register
What's new
Search
Search
Search titles and first posts only
Search titles only
By:
New posts
Search forums
Menu
Log in
Register
Install the app
Install
Help Support The Rugby Forum :
Forums
Other Stuff
The Clubhouse Bar
A Political Thread pt. 2
JavaScript is disabled. For a better experience, please enable JavaScript in your browser before proceeding.
You are using an out of date browser. It may not display this or other websites correctly.
You should upgrade or use an
alternative browser
.
Reply to thread
Message
<blockquote data-quote="Bruce_ma gooshvili" data-source="post: 1098751" data-attributes="member: 74121"><p>Loads of incredibly interesting things going on globally just now. Highlights include:</p><p></p><p>- Iran nuclear deal to be restored following Trumps brain fart to rip it up just because Netanyahu didnt like it. Iran is worlds 2nd largest gas producer so hopefully this will have a downward impact on global gas prices (they also supply Turkey so is there potential for onward supply to Europe?)</p><p></p><p>- Biden and Macron having done some serious public but kissing to the Saudis, might help increase oil production and reduce prices. </p><p></p><p>- Italy to elect post-fascists to lead government. In reality they might not be that different to Truss. So scary, but not apocalyptic (yet)</p><p></p><p>- Poland makes a single arms order from South Korea that is larger than the annual Polish military budget. They claim the US is being too slow in supplying weapons so they've had to shop elsewhere. Potentially a big plus for long term military support for Ukraine as Poland simply could not tolerate a Russian puppet state on their border now Putin has shown a bloodlust. </p><p></p><p>- in the midst of the Russian invasion, Polish government directly equates "Russian imperialism" with "French/German imperialism" in having the EU enforce its rules on member states. </p><p></p><p>- Far right Bolsanaro in Brazil who has destroyed the Amazon at an unprecedented rate appears to be on his way out in a forthcoming election (losing to centre left)</p><p></p><p>- Chinese economy potentially about to tank by winter, in part due to their bizarre zero Covid strategy. Video of Chinese citizens barging past a barricade at an IKEA to avoid being put in Covid isolation is a pretty unprecedented sign of civil disobedience there. Xi might have to put those re-education camps into overdrive and purge the middle class unless he is overthrown or abandons his obsession with zero Covid. </p><p></p><p>- Russian economy holding up okay due to fossil fuel revenues, doing not much worse than the UKs during the war. Aforementioned oil and gas supply matters might change that, but that's hypothetical. </p><p></p><p>- Ukraine managing to lose ground at a very slow rate, approaching full stalemate. I suspect this is the goal of US/UK rather than complete liberation of Ukraine (which they may fear would see Putin eacalate). If Russia doesn't make rapid gains this summer (with dry land for their tanks) it's hard to see how they'll become dominant later on this year or next year and that's when domestic discontent and pressure will possibly emerge. Basically, both sides seem capable to pursue their objectives for the long haul and barring a diplomatic change or the rapid capture of all of Donetsk by Russia, i think we are likely looking at years of war rather than months. <img src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7" class="smilie smilie--sprite smilie--sprite3" alt=":(" title="Frown :(" loading="lazy" data-shortname=":(" /></p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Bruce_ma gooshvili, post: 1098751, member: 74121"] Loads of incredibly interesting things going on globally just now. Highlights include: - Iran nuclear deal to be restored following Trumps brain fart to rip it up just because Netanyahu didnt like it. Iran is worlds 2nd largest gas producer so hopefully this will have a downward impact on global gas prices (they also supply Turkey so is there potential for onward supply to Europe?) - Biden and Macron having done some serious public but kissing to the Saudis, might help increase oil production and reduce prices. - Italy to elect post-fascists to lead government. In reality they might not be that different to Truss. So scary, but not apocalyptic (yet) - Poland makes a single arms order from South Korea that is larger than the annual Polish military budget. They claim the US is being too slow in supplying weapons so they've had to shop elsewhere. Potentially a big plus for long term military support for Ukraine as Poland simply could not tolerate a Russian puppet state on their border now Putin has shown a bloodlust. - in the midst of the Russian invasion, Polish government directly equates "Russian imperialism" with "French/German imperialism" in having the EU enforce its rules on member states. - Far right Bolsanaro in Brazil who has destroyed the Amazon at an unprecedented rate appears to be on his way out in a forthcoming election (losing to centre left) - Chinese economy potentially about to tank by winter, in part due to their bizarre zero Covid strategy. Video of Chinese citizens barging past a barricade at an IKEA to avoid being put in Covid isolation is a pretty unprecedented sign of civil disobedience there. Xi might have to put those re-education camps into overdrive and purge the middle class unless he is overthrown or abandons his obsession with zero Covid. - Russian economy holding up okay due to fossil fuel revenues, doing not much worse than the UKs during the war. Aforementioned oil and gas supply matters might change that, but that's hypothetical. - Ukraine managing to lose ground at a very slow rate, approaching full stalemate. I suspect this is the goal of US/UK rather than complete liberation of Ukraine (which they may fear would see Putin eacalate). If Russia doesn't make rapid gains this summer (with dry land for their tanks) it's hard to see how they'll become dominant later on this year or next year and that's when domestic discontent and pressure will possibly emerge. Basically, both sides seem capable to pursue their objectives for the long haul and barring a diplomatic change or the rapid capture of all of Donetsk by Russia, i think we are likely looking at years of war rather than months. :( [/QUOTE]
Verification
Post reply
Forums
Other Stuff
The Clubhouse Bar
A Political Thread pt. 2
Top