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The Clubhouse Bar
A Political Thread pt. 2
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<blockquote data-quote="Bruce_ma gooshvili" data-source="post: 1101536" data-attributes="member: 74121"><p>The Ukraine situation is really fluid on the ground and politically. Russia hasn't secured defensive positions in the north east and lost that town where they infamously lost 70 vehicles trying to do a pigheaded river crossing. All those deaths for nothing and more lost territory for them in the northeast seems inevitable. </p><p></p><p>But Russia reclaimed a town in Kherson when Ukraine was partially cut off by the floodwater from the blown up dam and continues to crawl forward in Donetsk. Plus they seem close to a potentially permanent repair of a river crossing at a dam at Kherson (by filling the river with rubble). So that will help them either keep Kherson or shift to defending core areas (Donbas and Crimea).</p><p></p><p>The big developments to me are Germany and the US this week are more hawkish and have publicly made statements that any peace deal requires a return to pre-2014 borders. This is the first time either nation has targeted the complete removal of Russian forces. Plus it's clear Germnay and the EU have completely moved on from ever purchasing large amounts of Russian energy. German gas reserves are at near 100% and a long term plan seems to be a pipeline through the Pyrenees and EU developing North African gas to come in via Spain. </p><p></p><p>For the war, the prediction seems to be Russia continues occassional shelling nuclear plants, dams and power stations as a warning whilst declaring occupied areas of Donetsk and Luhansk part of Russia (joining Crimea). Then any attack on any of these three areas helps Putin politically to mobilise for a full scale war where his attacks on infrastructure will step up and things will get horrible for winter. </p><p></p><p>Things may develop quickly. If the front starts to move sharply again or we see Russia declare full war then I'd agree with the earlier suggestion that this will probably require it's own thread as big and potentially unpleasant developments may come thick and fast.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Bruce_ma gooshvili, post: 1101536, member: 74121"] The Ukraine situation is really fluid on the ground and politically. Russia hasn't secured defensive positions in the north east and lost that town where they infamously lost 70 vehicles trying to do a pigheaded river crossing. All those deaths for nothing and more lost territory for them in the northeast seems inevitable. But Russia reclaimed a town in Kherson when Ukraine was partially cut off by the floodwater from the blown up dam and continues to crawl forward in Donetsk. Plus they seem close to a potentially permanent repair of a river crossing at a dam at Kherson (by filling the river with rubble). So that will help them either keep Kherson or shift to defending core areas (Donbas and Crimea). The big developments to me are Germany and the US this week are more hawkish and have publicly made statements that any peace deal requires a return to pre-2014 borders. This is the first time either nation has targeted the complete removal of Russian forces. Plus it's clear Germnay and the EU have completely moved on from ever purchasing large amounts of Russian energy. German gas reserves are at near 100% and a long term plan seems to be a pipeline through the Pyrenees and EU developing North African gas to come in via Spain. For the war, the prediction seems to be Russia continues occassional shelling nuclear plants, dams and power stations as a warning whilst declaring occupied areas of Donetsk and Luhansk part of Russia (joining Crimea). Then any attack on any of these three areas helps Putin politically to mobilise for a full scale war where his attacks on infrastructure will step up and things will get horrible for winter. Things may develop quickly. If the front starts to move sharply again or we see Russia declare full war then I'd agree with the earlier suggestion that this will probably require it's own thread as big and potentially unpleasant developments may come thick and fast. [/QUOTE]
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