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Bet on the Lions Winning?
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<blockquote data-quote="RedruthRFC" data-source="post: 809975" data-attributes="member: 58362"><p>Not saying it's the case in your instance, but you'd be surprised how many bets you have to make to say with any sort of statistical confidence that you're a profitable gambler. There's plenty of stories of people who have developed gambling problems because they ran hot when they started betting and assumed that it was easy, it's rather like the odd priceless idiot who crops up on gambling forums claiming to be a professional *insert random negative expectation game here* (usually roulette) player. As you rightly say, tilt can be a major leak with the potential to turn a profitable gambler into a losing one. I don't think I'm cut out for in play betting either.</p><p></p><p>Even if you can overcome the bookies' superior resources and make better predictions than them, the overround of the book makes betting profitably an uphill struggle. Personally I only ever bet for fun (either the fun of doing the research or of making the contest I'm watching a bit more interesting). If I was taking it more seriously, I would restrict myself to markets with less traded on them and study everything that relates to them religiously. Eastern European soccer seems to be an area that a lot of people focus on, but I would rather poke my own eyes out than try to become an expert! In rugby, I suspect I would be profitable on The GKIPA Championship - a league which I'm pretty sure I know a lot more about than those setting the markets, but the opportunities are so few and far between and the liquidity of the markets so low it wouldn't be a route to riches.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="RedruthRFC, post: 809975, member: 58362"] Not saying it's the case in your instance, but you'd be surprised how many bets you have to make to say with any sort of statistical confidence that you're a profitable gambler. There's plenty of stories of people who have developed gambling problems because they ran hot when they started betting and assumed that it was easy, it's rather like the odd priceless idiot who crops up on gambling forums claiming to be a professional *insert random negative expectation game here* (usually roulette) player. As you rightly say, tilt can be a major leak with the potential to turn a profitable gambler into a losing one. I don't think I'm cut out for in play betting either. Even if you can overcome the bookies' superior resources and make better predictions than them, the overround of the book makes betting profitably an uphill struggle. Personally I only ever bet for fun (either the fun of doing the research or of making the contest I'm watching a bit more interesting). If I was taking it more seriously, I would restrict myself to markets with less traded on them and study everything that relates to them religiously. Eastern European soccer seems to be an area that a lot of people focus on, but I would rather poke my own eyes out than try to become an expert! In rugby, I suspect I would be profitable on The GKIPA Championship - a league which I'm pretty sure I know a lot more about than those setting the markets, but the opportunities are so few and far between and the liquidity of the markets so low it wouldn't be a route to riches. [/QUOTE]
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Bet on the Lions Winning?
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