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The Clubhouse Bar
[COVID-19] General Discussion
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<blockquote data-quote="Which Tyler" data-source="post: 1021170" data-attributes="member: 73592"><p>With all the usual provisos about being well outside my scope...</p><p></p><p>It's complicated; basically the amount of virus you shed isn't a bell curve over time, but a trailing (lognormal distribution?) - exponential rise to an early peak, then much longer trailing end.</p><p></p><p>Date of infection to start of shedding is different for different viral loads of infection, and different methods of viral introduction; but typically 1-3 days.</p><p>Then from start of shedding to onset of symptoms typically around 12-60 hours.</p><p>From onset of symptoms to peak shedding another 1-3 days, before trailing off.</p><p>So at 10 days, 80% of people will be shedding a small enough quantity to not infect anyone else (depending on time-scales, environmental factors etc etc).</p><p>at 14 days, 92% of people will be shedding a small enough blah blah</p><p>at 21 days, 98% of people will be shedding a small enough blah blah</p><p></p><p>Then you introduce the sensitivity of the testing - how much viral load is required to trigger a positive? how many false-negatives result?</p><p>After that, you have the specificity of the test - is a positive result actually positive for what it's testing for, or will some other confounder trigger a false-positive?</p><p></p><p>NB: Do'nt rely on those figures being accurate - I'm going by memory for the early stages, and pulling them out of my backside for illustrative purposes for 14 and 21 days.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Which Tyler, post: 1021170, member: 73592"] With all the usual provisos about being well outside my scope... It's complicated; basically the amount of virus you shed isn't a bell curve over time, but a trailing (lognormal distribution?) - exponential rise to an early peak, then much longer trailing end. Date of infection to start of shedding is different for different viral loads of infection, and different methods of viral introduction; but typically 1-3 days. Then from start of shedding to onset of symptoms typically around 12-60 hours. From onset of symptoms to peak shedding another 1-3 days, before trailing off. So at 10 days, 80% of people will be shedding a small enough quantity to not infect anyone else (depending on time-scales, environmental factors etc etc). at 14 days, 92% of people will be shedding a small enough blah blah at 21 days, 98% of people will be shedding a small enough blah blah Then you introduce the sensitivity of the testing - how much viral load is required to trigger a positive? how many false-negatives result? After that, you have the specificity of the test - is a positive result actually positive for what it's testing for, or will some other confounder trigger a false-positive? NB: Do'nt rely on those figures being accurate - I'm going by memory for the early stages, and pulling them out of my backside for illustrative purposes for 14 and 21 days. [/QUOTE]
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