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[COVID-19] General Discussion

Amiga500

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Self explanatory.

Sporting events being cancelled all over the place. Two Pro14 games for this weekend have been cancelled. Numerous Serie A games have been cancelled.

Hard to see how the Italy v England game can go ahead in Rome.

Could they move it to Twickenham? Is that still advisable - or are the chances of folks from Italy unknowingly carrying the virus to UK too high?


I suppose most recent parallel would be foot n mouth - but IIRC the whole tournament was shifted - not just one match.
 

TRF_Olyy

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I thought it was only Northern Italy under quarantine atm?
As far as I'm aware Rome is fine to travel to, no warnings from the foreign office etc.

Though that could easily change in the next week or so I guess
 

Amiga500

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Yeah, I'm expecting it to spread.
 

Tallshort

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Remember the old foot and mouth outbreak in 2001. England Ireland was played later in the year.
 

Amiga500

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Was it just us vs. you lot or was it the tournament shifted?

I've had too many beers from then to now.
 

The Alpha Bro

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Was it just us vs. you lot or was it the tournament shifted?

I've had too many beers from then to now.
All of our games v the UK sides were postponed.
 

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Yeah, all of the Ireland home games were played in Autumn.
 

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I expect it will be cancelled or played behind closed doors. Which will be rather weird.
 

big ginger 8

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Our Health Minister, Simon Harris, just said on the news he was going to recommend to the IRFU the match be called off.
 

TommiG88

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Bit ridiculous if I’m honest.
 

Amiga500

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Bit ridiculous if I’m honest.
Not really.

If thousands of Italians come in for the game, sure as hell at least one of them will have the virus - then after mixing with tens of thousands at the Aviva, in pubs, in hotels etc - sure as hell they'll pass it to many people.

Which would mean an explosion of cases across the island within a couple of weeks.
 

TommiG88

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Not really.

If thousands of Italians come in for the game, sure as hell at least one of them will have the virus - then after mixing with tens of thousands at the Aviva, in pubs, in hotels etc - sure as hell they'll pass it to many people.

Which would mean an explosion of cases across the island within a couple of weeks.
Play the game behind closed doors.

Furthermore, how many people have actually been diagnosed in Italy? A few hundred?
 

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Play the game behind closed doors.

Furthermore, how many people have actually been diagnosed in Italy? A few hundred?
Only a few hundred, but odds are there are a fair amount more unidentified cases. Calling off the match is by far the safest option.
 

The Alpha Bro

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The game will be postponed. It would be unwise to give up one of 6 home internationals in the year, would be a lotta bean down the drain!
 

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The game will be postponed. It would be unwise to give up one of 6 home internationals in the year, would be a lotta bean down the drain!
100%, what I mean when I say calling it off.

Not a hope in hell the IRFU aren't getting the ticket revenue from this.
 

Yoshimitsu

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Depends on how you want this to play out It's a simple numbers game.

Small numbers? Barely a ripple. Large numbers? Serious problems.

Lets play catastrophist!

80% of people who get this thing appear to be fine. However, the 20% who aren't will rapidly swamp the health services of all countries affected with ICU beds being the most likely failure point. A mortality rate of 1 - 2% seems to be on the cards with the majority of the dead being old / suffering from other health conditions. It looks like we're going to get a pretty good idea of what happens as the Iranians appear to have gone for the approach of just letting it spread.

I'd suspect the Six Nations will be a casualty but it won't be the biggest. The Olympics is highly unlikely (imho obviously) to proceed in it's current / envisaged form.

The particular problem is lack of testing capability. Without that the Italians really don't know yet what they are dealing with. Risking the health of potentially millions so we can watch a game of rugby seems a bit disproportionate to me.

Just for context there was a lot of worry about swine flu. I got it and it was a miserable experience. But that strain had a mortality of around 0.02% at the moment this thing it appears approximately 100 x more deadly. Spanish Flu had a mortality rate of approximately 2-3% and killed somewhere around 30 million people worldwide.

The name of the game is to buy time and keep numbers low enough for existing capabilities to cope. Our "just in time" ultra connected society is about to find out exactly how resilient such systems are. At this point I'd hope caution wins the day.
 
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Alanx7

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Heard on The World At One the other day a medical chap saying he had heard at a medical conference in Washington (USA) that there was talk of London being used and an alternative to Tokyo for the Olympics if there was a big spread of the virus in Japan.

Not sure how this would go down with a) the Japanese & b) the sporting world in general. Not to mention how this would by itself avoid a potential medical problem.

Mind you these would have been medical folk talking not sorting politicians....
 

duncanb

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Expunge Italy record this year becomes 5 nations simple Italy not punished because of it.
Unfortunately calendar doesn't allow for out else.
Autumn fully booked see no issues with this
France 2 wins 2 to play still can grand slam.
England 2 wins 1 to play can still win title.
Ireland 2 win 1 to play can still win title.
Scotland no wins to 2 play.
Wales no wins. 2 to play.
Simples no punishment for Italy just circumstances.
 

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they could use use some of the Autumn international dates (like in 201) and have Ireland v Italy on the 28th of November(only England a Wales playing that weekend) and have Italy v England on the 21/22nd of November (England due to play an unnamed Tier 2 side and Italy playing Australia)
 

TRF_Olyy

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Can't see any union agreeing to a full on cancellation - the monetary loss would be too severe
 
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