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Amiga500

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Self explanatory.

Sporting events being cancelled all over the place. Two Pro14 games for this weekend have been cancelled. Numerous Serie A games have been cancelled.

Hard to see how the Italy v England game can go ahead in Rome.

Could they move it to Twickenham? Is that still advisable - or are the chances of folks from Italy unknowingly carrying the virus to UK too high?


I suppose most recent parallel would be foot n mouth - but IIRC the whole tournament was shifted - not just one match.
 
I thought it was only Northern Italy under quarantine atm?
As far as I'm aware Rome is fine to travel to, no warnings from the foreign office etc.

Though that could easily change in the next week or so I guess
 
TommiG88 said:
Bit ridiculous if I’m honest.
Click to expand...

Not really.

If thousands of Italians come in for the game, sure as hell at least one of them will have the virus - then after mixing with tens of thousands at the Aviva, in pubs, in hotels etc - sure as hell they'll pass it to many people.

Which would mean an explosion of cases across the island within a couple of weeks.
 
Amiga500 said:
Not really.

If thousands of Italians come in for the game, sure as hell at least one of them will have the virus - then after mixing with tens of thousands at the Aviva, in pubs, in hotels etc - sure as hell they'll pass it to many people.

Which would mean an explosion of cases across the island within a couple of weeks.
Click to expand...
Play the game behind closed doors.

Furthermore, how many people have actually been diagnosed in Italy? A few hundred?
 
Depends on how you want this to play out It's a simple numbers game.

Small numbers? Barely a ripple. Large numbers? Serious problems.

Lets play catastrophist!

80% of people who get this thing appear to be fine. However, the 20% who aren't will rapidly swamp the health services of all countries affected with ICU beds being the most likely failure point. A mortality rate of 1 - 2% seems to be on the cards with the majority of the dead being old / suffering from other health conditions. It looks like we're going to get a pretty good idea of what happens as the Iranians appear to have gone for the approach of just letting it spread.

I'd suspect the Six Nations will be a casualty but it won't be the biggest. The Olympics is highly unlikely (imho obviously) to proceed in it's current / envisaged form.

The particular problem is lack of testing capability. Without that the Italians really don't know yet what they are dealing with. Risking the health of potentially millions so we can watch a game of rugby seems a bit disproportionate to me.

Just for context there was a lot of worry about swine flu. I got it and it was a miserable experience. But that strain had a mortality of around 0.02% at the moment this thing it appears approximately 100 x more deadly. Spanish Flu had a mortality rate of approximately 2-3% and killed somewhere around 30 million people worldwide.

The name of the game is to buy time and keep numbers low enough for existing capabilities to cope. Our "just in time" ultra connected society is about to find out exactly how resilient such systems are. At this point I'd hope caution wins the day.
 
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Heard on The World At One the other day a medical chap saying he had heard at a medical conference in Washington (USA) that there was talk of London being used and an alternative to Tokyo for the Olympics if there was a big spread of the virus in Japan.

Not sure how this would go down with a) the Japanese & b) the sporting world in general. Not to mention how this would by itself avoid a potential medical problem.

Mind you these would have been medical folk talking not sorting politicians....
 
Expunge Italy record this year becomes 5 nations simple Italy not punished because of it.
Unfortunately calendar doesn't allow for out else.
Autumn fully booked see no issues with this
France 2 wins 2 to play still can grand slam.
England 2 wins 1 to play can still win title.
Ireland 2 win 1 to play can still win title.
Scotland no wins to 2 play.
Wales no wins. 2 to play.
Simples no punishment for Italy just circumstances.
 
they could use use some of the Autumn international dates (like in 201) and have Ireland v Italy on the 28th of November(only England a Wales playing that weekend) and have Italy v England on the 21/22nd of November (England due to play an unnamed Tier 2 side and Italy playing Australia)
 
TRF_Olyy said:
Can't see any union agreeing to a full on cancellation - the monetary loss would be too severe
Click to expand...
Yup, especially with precedent on the side of re-arranging.
However... This is unlikely to have died down in 6 months time, so it probably will be what happens eventually, but for now, expect everyone to play for time.
 
Which Tyler said:
Hope you paid by credit card...
Click to expand...
No travel advisories from the UK for Japan yet,
Most of the freak out over Japan is because of the number on the cruise ship - in terms of mainland it's not toooooo bad (30 odd in Tokyo, a city of 60+million). I'm not concerned about it being cancelled, but I'm not sure how keen my work would be about me going into quarantine when I get back :P
 
TRF_Olyy said:
No travel advisories from the UK for Japan yet,
Most of the freak out over Japan is because of the number on the cruise ship - in terms of mainland it's not toooooo bad (30 odd in Tokyo, a city of 60+million). I'm not concerned about it being cancelled, but I'm not sure how keen my work would be about me going into quarantine when I get back :p
Click to expand...
Latest advice, as of yesterday: https://publichealthmatters.blog.gov.uk/2020/01/23/wuhan-novel-coronavirus-what-you-need-to-know/?
 
Govt advice is at least a week, maybe even 2 weeks behind where it needs to be.

When cases first emerged in Italy (16th Feb with 4 cases) - the response should have been swift and decisive.
Flights stopped, self-isolation of anyone who had returned from Italy for 7 days, which would later amend depending on emerging cases in Italy.

Instead, they are going to talk themselves to death discussing matters while people actually start dying in big numbers before they realise they need to act.

So the mid-term has happened, thousands of school kids have went out on ski-trips, returned and went back to school. Sure what could possibly go wrong there?


Matt Hancock currently insisting that all is OK earlier:
vaugn.jpg
 
I'll be amazed if this goes ahead now Ire V Ita is cancelled.

From my understanding which is secondhand knowledge from a friend who is a scientist, infection control specialist and part of UK response team none the less I am limited. Its about a 1% mortality rate when models are applied (dividing simple deaths V confirmed cases doesn't work) which is actually not too different to normal flu and kills similar people ie those with underlying issues.

The issue comes with infection rates were are huge and a lack of vaccine to protect people.

However in the UK and most countries with a decent free health service the main impact is going to be economic should it not be contained. Where work forces are likely to loose staff for up two weeks and its likely to be non insignificant number.


That's pretty much all I know my friend has essentially been refusing all media request because they don't believe they understand enough to properly inform the public but has also told us not to panic at all yet.
 
ncurd said:
From my understanding which is secondhand knowledge from a friend who is a scientist, infection control specialist and part of UK response team none the less I am limited. Its about a 1% mortality rate when models are applied (dividing simple deaths V confirmed cases doesn't work) which is actually not too different to normal flu and kills similar people ie those with underlying issues..
Click to expand...

That is quite different from killed vs. cured - which is running at around 10%.

But of course, there are probably factors for health system effectiveness, national general diet & general health that need to be considered when trying to figure out how it rolls across an entire nation. Those factors would not be reflected in simple killed vs. cured numbers worldwide.

I hope yer mate is right!
 

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