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The Clubhouse Bar
[COVID-19] General Discussion
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<blockquote data-quote="Which Tyler" data-source="post: 1024257" data-attributes="member: 73592"><p>If only we had a functional test and trace system.</p><p></p><p>It's also not only 6. We're sequencing about 1 in 10 to 1 in 20 of the positive test found. meaning that the real number is likely to be between 60 and 120 - another reason why a functional test and trace system is vital. We need to find all of them, and trace where it came from; with that many, there's a strong chance that community transmission of B 1.1.248 is already taking place. If you don't get on top of it at small numbers, and clamp down hard; we'll be up the creak in a couple of months - coinciding nicely with opening up after lockdown.</p><p></p><p>IIRC B 1.1.248 isn't particularly more transmissible / contagious, certainly not more than C 1.1.7 - it's "just" that the current vaccines aren't as effective against it.</p><p>Our national policy for ending this thing is to rely on vaccines.</p><p></p><p>If only we, the EU, the world* had taken this a touch more seriously a year ago; and made some sort of effort to stop the numbers rising to such huge levels in the first place that massive numbers of variations was absolutely inevitable. I know the hope was that those variations would settle down to a more contagious, less severe version - but that was never guaranteed (especially with modern medicine) and ignored all the steps before then.</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p>*I mostly blame Europe as we had the first major outbreak, and most of the world got it from us. We also set an example in doing too little too late.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Which Tyler, post: 1024257, member: 73592"] If only we had a functional test and trace system. It's also not only 6. We're sequencing about 1 in 10 to 1 in 20 of the positive test found. meaning that the real number is likely to be between 60 and 120 - another reason why a functional test and trace system is vital. We need to find all of them, and trace where it came from; with that many, there's a strong chance that community transmission of B 1.1.248 is already taking place. If you don't get on top of it at small numbers, and clamp down hard; we'll be up the creak in a couple of months - coinciding nicely with opening up after lockdown. IIRC B 1.1.248 isn't particularly more transmissible / contagious, certainly not more than C 1.1.7 - it's "just" that the current vaccines aren't as effective against it. Our national policy for ending this thing is to rely on vaccines. If only we, the EU, the world* had taken this a touch more seriously a year ago; and made some sort of effort to stop the numbers rising to such huge levels in the first place that massive numbers of variations was absolutely inevitable. I know the hope was that those variations would settle down to a more contagious, less severe version - but that was never guaranteed (especially with modern medicine) and ignored all the steps before then. *I mostly blame Europe as we had the first major outbreak, and most of the world got it from us. We also set an example in doing too little too late. [/QUOTE]
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[COVID-19] General Discussion
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