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The Clubhouse Bar
[COVID-19] General Discussion
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<blockquote data-quote="Yoshimitsu" data-source="post: 1041349" data-attributes="member: 71899"><p>I'd hypothesize it's more likely to see what effect vaccinating has on the link between cases and deaths through whatever variant. Infections in the NW (U.K) are growing exponentially, if I had to punt on the next "problem" area it'll be Reading in the SE.</p><p></p><p>The fact that the most vulnerable are already double jabbed will either show:</p><p></p><p>1) The vaccines do indeed sufficiently suppress death / hospitalisation rates in the vulnerable cohort (and others (vaccinated or not) aren't made sufficiently ill to significantly increase pressure on the NHS) and thus the link between "cases" and NHS pressure becomes less important and we can unlock regardless of numbers of cases. Note. people will still get ill and die in some numbers should this path be followed. The number needs to be politically acceptable.</p><p>2) They don't or there's sufficient folk (vulnerable / non vaccinated) left that will become infected, get very ill and die and the NHS won't cope and then there appear to be two further choices</p><p></p><p>Lock down to suppress infection rates - Will the public wear that?</p><p>Increase vaccination rates (if the data shows that vaccinations diminish the chance of hospitalisations / deaths in all cohorts) Will the public wear that?</p><p></p><p>Worst case scenario is the early emergence of a vaccine escape variant. Then all the work done to date may be of little use.</p><p></p><p>Despite some positive sounds from politicians, this is far from over. The lack of a sterilising vaccine means that this virus will persist and mutate. Selective pressure to mutate in an imperfectly vaccinated population may go in ways we don't want it to but evolution makes more likely. That being to resist / avoid vaccine protection.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Yoshimitsu, post: 1041349, member: 71899"] I'd hypothesize it's more likely to see what effect vaccinating has on the link between cases and deaths through whatever variant. Infections in the NW (U.K) are growing exponentially, if I had to punt on the next "problem" area it'll be Reading in the SE. The fact that the most vulnerable are already double jabbed will either show: 1) The vaccines do indeed sufficiently suppress death / hospitalisation rates in the vulnerable cohort (and others (vaccinated or not) aren't made sufficiently ill to significantly increase pressure on the NHS) and thus the link between "cases" and NHS pressure becomes less important and we can unlock regardless of numbers of cases. Note. people will still get ill and die in some numbers should this path be followed. The number needs to be politically acceptable. 2) They don't or there's sufficient folk (vulnerable / non vaccinated) left that will become infected, get very ill and die and the NHS won't cope and then there appear to be two further choices Lock down to suppress infection rates - Will the public wear that? Increase vaccination rates (if the data shows that vaccinations diminish the chance of hospitalisations / deaths in all cohorts) Will the public wear that? Worst case scenario is the early emergence of a vaccine escape variant. Then all the work done to date may be of little use. Despite some positive sounds from politicians, this is far from over. The lack of a sterilising vaccine means that this virus will persist and mutate. Selective pressure to mutate in an imperfectly vaccinated population may go in ways we don't want it to but evolution makes more likely. That being to resist / avoid vaccine protection. [/QUOTE]
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