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[COVID-19] General Discussion
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<blockquote data-quote="Bruce_ma gooshvili" data-source="post: 1069102" data-attributes="member: 74121"><p>This is true. The future is somewhat uncertain given Covid-19 is distinct to flu and may therefore have it's own behaviour. From a brief scan of the internet it appears that measles is measles -- year in, year out pretty much it is the same dominant strain since 1954. So the vaccine you got as a kid provides protection for ages and if enough people are vaccinated then serious measle outbreaks will be few and far between. On the other hand flu has loads of annual variants out a selection of 60 (which can occasionally grow), hence the requirement for annual jags. Which will Covid be? Or will it be something different? The above is very speculative on my par and possibly completely misinformed!</p><p></p><p>But I think it is reasonable to conclude that a variant will in all likelihood have to be more contagious than the resident variant in order to replace it. And, that the more infectious the variant, the harder it will therefore be to displace and the longer (on average) it will take for such a variant to arise.</p><p></p><p>- Alpha, Delta and Omicron all went global.</p><p></p><p>- Delta appeared seven months after Alpha (albeit far less than 7 months after Alpha became dominant in India) and was more transmissable, so effectively eliminated Alpha.</p><p></p><p>- Omicron appeared seven months after Delta started to become dominant globally (almost double the time for a new, more transmissible variant to emerge) and is predicted to effectively eliminate Delta.</p><p></p><p>Extremely limited data (and I'm not involved in medicine) but consistent with what is considered by many as they way variants compete with each other. Therefore, if I was a betting man I'd guess Omicron will have its moment in the sun for 7 months minimum, but potentially for far longer because the transmissability is off the scale and it may be able to reinfect. So displacing it is going to be a far harder challenge for the virus than displacing Delta and Alpha which were less contagious and less likely to reinfect. So potentially, like measles, it could be Omicron forever (or 65 years and counting in the case of measles)</p><p></p><p>[URL unfurl="true"]https://www.who.int/emergencies/what-we-do/tracking-SARS-CoV-2-variants[/URL]</p><p></p><p>Plus, Omicron is so infectious it'll do a far better job of immunising the non-vulnerable population of the world than any vaccine programme possibly could. So, if a new variant does arise at least a very high proportion of immune systems globally will have been exposed to something similar. So we should avoid the requirement for such robust measures by states.</p><p></p><p>Of course Covid-19 might have a twist in the tale that makes all the above utter hogwash. Or we might get a completely different pandemic of a totally different disease. But I think it is generally a healthy approach to life to try not to be concerned about what 'might' happen. Whereas every development post-Wuhan up until Omicron 'was likely' to happen and therefore was very much worth being concerned about.</p><p></p><p>To be a negative ninny and play Devil's Advocate, my main fear around Omicron would be if it stayed the same but changed slightly to once again attack deep in the chest, rather than the upper respiratory areas. As a veteran of many a sniffle, if you get a cold that is kept above the shoulders, rarely will you miss a day of work. But a cold that gets into your chest can floor you and often require antibiotics. Yet I imagine both colds may be very similar (or even identical) if put under the microscope. I would add I've read nothing to suggest Omicron could modify in this way and there is zero indication globally that it has done so.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Bruce_ma gooshvili, post: 1069102, member: 74121"] This is true. The future is somewhat uncertain given Covid-19 is distinct to flu and may therefore have it's own behaviour. From a brief scan of the internet it appears that measles is measles -- year in, year out pretty much it is the same dominant strain since 1954. So the vaccine you got as a kid provides protection for ages and if enough people are vaccinated then serious measle outbreaks will be few and far between. On the other hand flu has loads of annual variants out a selection of 60 (which can occasionally grow), hence the requirement for annual jags. Which will Covid be? Or will it be something different? The above is very speculative on my par and possibly completely misinformed! But I think it is reasonable to conclude that a variant will in all likelihood have to be more contagious than the resident variant in order to replace it. And, that the more infectious the variant, the harder it will therefore be to displace and the longer (on average) it will take for such a variant to arise. - Alpha, Delta and Omicron all went global. - Delta appeared seven months after Alpha (albeit far less than 7 months after Alpha became dominant in India) and was more transmissable, so effectively eliminated Alpha. - Omicron appeared seven months after Delta started to become dominant globally (almost double the time for a new, more transmissible variant to emerge) and is predicted to effectively eliminate Delta. Extremely limited data (and I'm not involved in medicine) but consistent with what is considered by many as they way variants compete with each other. Therefore, if I was a betting man I'd guess Omicron will have its moment in the sun for 7 months minimum, but potentially for far longer because the transmissability is off the scale and it may be able to reinfect. So displacing it is going to be a far harder challenge for the virus than displacing Delta and Alpha which were less contagious and less likely to reinfect. So potentially, like measles, it could be Omicron forever (or 65 years and counting in the case of measles) [URL unfurl="true"]https://www.who.int/emergencies/what-we-do/tracking-SARS-CoV-2-variants[/URL] Plus, Omicron is so infectious it'll do a far better job of immunising the non-vulnerable population of the world than any vaccine programme possibly could. So, if a new variant does arise at least a very high proportion of immune systems globally will have been exposed to something similar. So we should avoid the requirement for such robust measures by states. Of course Covid-19 might have a twist in the tale that makes all the above utter hogwash. Or we might get a completely different pandemic of a totally different disease. But I think it is generally a healthy approach to life to try not to be concerned about what 'might' happen. Whereas every development post-Wuhan up until Omicron 'was likely' to happen and therefore was very much worth being concerned about. To be a negative ninny and play Devil's Advocate, my main fear around Omicron would be if it stayed the same but changed slightly to once again attack deep in the chest, rather than the upper respiratory areas. As a veteran of many a sniffle, if you get a cold that is kept above the shoulders, rarely will you miss a day of work. But a cold that gets into your chest can floor you and often require antibiotics. Yet I imagine both colds may be very similar (or even identical) if put under the microscope. I would add I've read nothing to suggest Omicron could modify in this way and there is zero indication globally that it has done so. [/QUOTE]
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