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The Clubhouse Bar
[COVID-19] General Discussion
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<blockquote data-quote="Bruce_ma gooshvili" data-source="post: 1070131" data-attributes="member: 74121"><p>Yes, I would imagine that leaks such as this SAGE modelling are undoubtedly an attempt to sway public behaviour when restrictions are off the table politically. It is unfortunate that playing 'Project Fear' in this manner is deemed necessary as it undermines future confidence in expertise and gives ammunition to the anti-vax brigade. Short term gain for long term pain, although I'm not without sympathy for the tactic during genuinely lethal developments like Alpha and Delta. </p><p></p><p>I speak as someone who is very supportive of the role of expertise, but I find it baffling a suggestion in the thread that this is the first error SAGE made. In Scotland, Wales & NI the pandemic response is devolved, but was all broadly (and catastrophically) similar to that in England in terms of actions, inactions and fatalities. All four govenrments are very diverse politically but have broadly followed SAGE advice from the outset. </p><p></p><p>No face coverings for months, ship elderly infected hospital patients back into care homes without tests, next to no airport restrictions, general inaction and acceptance that the virus will take hold and no measures can prevent that (and clearly flirting with the notion of herd immunity before vaccines were available). On every count the above list is calamitous and was done at the time of abundant data and evidence in East Asia, where the virus had emerged weeks earlier, of the nature of the virus and what steps could be taken to avert disaster. The cry was "be led by the data" but there was no sign they ever looked at countries where more substantial datasets were available.</p><p></p><p>The only comfort for SAGE is so many others globally screwed this up and that the speedy creation of efficient vaccines (hopefully) has curtailed the worst of this mess to two years. I'd give Korea, Japan, Vietnam, Aus, NZ, China, Denmark, Norway and Finland strong pass marks for their response (and resultant far lower death rates). The non-European ones above got the initial calls spot on, and the European ones I mention remedied the situation after the first wave. I'd give most others, including SAGE, an epic 'F' for fail. There is no reason the British Isles nations should all have a death rate roughly 3 to 5 times worse than Scandinavian nations and 20 time worse than Australia and think they've done a good job.</p><p></p><p>Think how irate people are when people die with terrorism, die fighting pointless wars or die due to individual errors in a hospital. Magnify all of those by many tens, hundreds or thousands and you will see the bumbling hands of SAGE at the steering wheel. In Scotland our Chief medical officer had to resign after repeatedly flouting restrictions to travel to her holiday home. As such, the majority of our pandemic advice has come from a guy whose medical specialism is dentistry. The medical expertise across the UK in relation to pandemic, management has been found badly wanting and I wouldn't object to investigations in terms of criminal negligence and corporate manslaughter (as can happen with individual issues in hospitals).</p><p></p><p>Mercifully the medical expertise in terms of vaccine creation has been superb in the UK and elsewhere. Even vaccines that are well short of Pfizer and Moderna have been a superb achievement by medical expertise. I also think health services have operated very well globally with the appalling situation that those employed to manage pandemics has placed them in. So it is important to isolate the pandemic management side of things when criticising.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Bruce_ma gooshvili, post: 1070131, member: 74121"] Yes, I would imagine that leaks such as this SAGE modelling are undoubtedly an attempt to sway public behaviour when restrictions are off the table politically. It is unfortunate that playing 'Project Fear' in this manner is deemed necessary as it undermines future confidence in expertise and gives ammunition to the anti-vax brigade. Short term gain for long term pain, although I'm not without sympathy for the tactic during genuinely lethal developments like Alpha and Delta. I speak as someone who is very supportive of the role of expertise, but I find it baffling a suggestion in the thread that this is the first error SAGE made. In Scotland, Wales & NI the pandemic response is devolved, but was all broadly (and catastrophically) similar to that in England in terms of actions, inactions and fatalities. All four govenrments are very diverse politically but have broadly followed SAGE advice from the outset. No face coverings for months, ship elderly infected hospital patients back into care homes without tests, next to no airport restrictions, general inaction and acceptance that the virus will take hold and no measures can prevent that (and clearly flirting with the notion of herd immunity before vaccines were available). On every count the above list is calamitous and was done at the time of abundant data and evidence in East Asia, where the virus had emerged weeks earlier, of the nature of the virus and what steps could be taken to avert disaster. The cry was "be led by the data" but there was no sign they ever looked at countries where more substantial datasets were available. The only comfort for SAGE is so many others globally screwed this up and that the speedy creation of efficient vaccines (hopefully) has curtailed the worst of this mess to two years. I'd give Korea, Japan, Vietnam, Aus, NZ, China, Denmark, Norway and Finland strong pass marks for their response (and resultant far lower death rates). The non-European ones above got the initial calls spot on, and the European ones I mention remedied the situation after the first wave. I'd give most others, including SAGE, an epic 'F' for fail. There is no reason the British Isles nations should all have a death rate roughly 3 to 5 times worse than Scandinavian nations and 20 time worse than Australia and think they've done a good job. Think how irate people are when people die with terrorism, die fighting pointless wars or die due to individual errors in a hospital. Magnify all of those by many tens, hundreds or thousands and you will see the bumbling hands of SAGE at the steering wheel. In Scotland our Chief medical officer had to resign after repeatedly flouting restrictions to travel to her holiday home. As such, the majority of our pandemic advice has come from a guy whose medical specialism is dentistry. The medical expertise across the UK in relation to pandemic, management has been found badly wanting and I wouldn't object to investigations in terms of criminal negligence and corporate manslaughter (as can happen with individual issues in hospitals). Mercifully the medical expertise in terms of vaccine creation has been superb in the UK and elsewhere. Even vaccines that are well short of Pfizer and Moderna have been a superb achievement by medical expertise. I also think health services have operated very well globally with the appalling situation that those employed to manage pandemics has placed them in. So it is important to isolate the pandemic management side of things when criticising. [/QUOTE]
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