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The Clubhouse Bar
[COVID-19] General Discussion
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<blockquote data-quote="Amiga500" data-source="post: 990570" data-attributes="member: 56767"><p>Statistics. Simple numbers. </p><p></p><p>Not to mention the history of it in China given the actions of the Chinese authorities.</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p>Being draconian early has a lesser impact than trying to compensate later on.</p><p></p><p>Thought experiment:</p><p></p><p><strong>Shutting the entire country down now for 2 weeks vs. doing the same in July after an explosion in cases.</strong></p><p></p><p>Now, because cases are still of relatively low number, there are only a few carriers. As they become symptomatic they and the (reduced compared to July) number of people they are in contact with can all be isolated. The facilities or manpower are available to house or service this number of people.</p><p></p><p>In July, it could be in the thousands if not tens of thousands. Too many for strict isolation, far too many for tracing and isolating folks in contact.</p><p></p><p>The July shutdown would be utterly ineffective, cost far more and achieve nothing. Whereas now, you'd essentially eliminate the virus in country and then just have to control points of arrival thereafter.</p><p></p><p></p><p><strong>Note:</strong> I am not advocating a complete shutdown of the country. The above is just a fundamental illustration of how making a hard decision early will beat that same decision later. </p><p></p><p></p><p>It should be noted the Chinese sat on their hands through December and January - they then shutdown the country in February and still had ~80,000 cases with ~3,000 deaths.</p><p>Right now, we are in the equivalent of the Chinese December and are sitting on our hands. Is the govt going to wait till May before waking up?</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Amiga500, post: 990570, member: 56767"] Statistics. Simple numbers. Not to mention the history of it in China given the actions of the Chinese authorities. Being draconian early has a lesser impact than trying to compensate later on. Thought experiment: [B]Shutting the entire country down now for 2 weeks vs. doing the same in July after an explosion in cases.[/B] Now, because cases are still of relatively low number, there are only a few carriers. As they become symptomatic they and the (reduced compared to July) number of people they are in contact with can all be isolated. The facilities or manpower are available to house or service this number of people. In July, it could be in the thousands if not tens of thousands. Too many for strict isolation, far too many for tracing and isolating folks in contact. The July shutdown would be utterly ineffective, cost far more and achieve nothing. Whereas now, you'd essentially eliminate the virus in country and then just have to control points of arrival thereafter. [B]Note:[/B] I am not advocating a complete shutdown of the country. The above is just a fundamental illustration of how making a hard decision early will beat that same decision later. It should be noted the Chinese sat on their hands through December and January - they then shutdown the country in February and still had ~80,000 cases with ~3,000 deaths. Right now, we are in the equivalent of the Chinese December and are sitting on our hands. Is the govt going to wait till May before waking up? [/QUOTE]
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