Menu
Forums
New posts
Search forums
What's new
New posts
Latest activity
Log in
Register
What's new
Search
Search
Search titles and first posts only
Search titles only
By:
New posts
Search forums
Menu
Log in
Register
Install the app
Install
Help Support The Rugby Forum :
Forums
Other Stuff
The Clubhouse Bar
[COVID-19] General Discussion
JavaScript is disabled. For a better experience, please enable JavaScript in your browser before proceeding.
You are using an out of date browser. It may not display this or other websites correctly.
You should upgrade or use an
alternative browser
.
Reply to thread
Message
<blockquote data-quote="Amiga500" data-source="post: 990578" data-attributes="member: 56767"><p>Further to earlier.</p><p></p><p>At the moment, based on Chinese studies; 80% of cases are mild, 14% severe and 5% critical.</p><p>Severe being breathing difficulties, low blood oxygen or other lung problems.</p><p>Critical being respiratory failure, shock or multiple organ dysfunction.</p><p></p><p></p><p>If the UK is looking at:</p><p></p><p>8.3m of those 16-67 contracting it at <strong>any one time</strong> (proportion of workforce as per Bozo).</p><p>640,000 of long term sick/retired contracting it (same 20% proportion extrapolated from Bozo's statement).</p><p></p><p>5% of the latter is still 32,000 people. That is approximately 20-25% of NHS England's entire bed capacity.</p><p></p><p>That doesn't include the percentage of workforce needing acute care, or kids. Or those in the severe category. It also doesn't consider that those in the severe category will undoubtedly be needing acute care for longer than those with mild symptoms and "off from work".</p><p></p><p></p><p>You'd have to be <em>very </em>confident in your modelling techniques to veer far from a study of actual numbers derived a matter of weeks ago on a virus which is extremely young and not well understood.</p><p></p><p>As someone with an extensive background in numerical modelling; I certainly wouldn't be placing much confidence in modelled numbers right now.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Amiga500, post: 990578, member: 56767"] Further to earlier. At the moment, based on Chinese studies; 80% of cases are mild, 14% severe and 5% critical. Severe being breathing difficulties, low blood oxygen or other lung problems. Critical being respiratory failure, shock or multiple organ dysfunction. If the UK is looking at: 8.3m of those 16-67 contracting it at [B]any one time[/B] (proportion of workforce as per Bozo). 640,000 of long term sick/retired contracting it (same 20% proportion extrapolated from Bozo's statement). 5% of the latter is still 32,000 people. That is approximately 20-25% of NHS England's entire bed capacity. That doesn't include the percentage of workforce needing acute care, or kids. Or those in the severe category. It also doesn't consider that those in the severe category will undoubtedly be needing acute care for longer than those with mild symptoms and "off from work". You'd have to be [I]very [/I]confident in your modelling techniques to veer far from a study of actual numbers derived a matter of weeks ago on a virus which is extremely young and not well understood. As someone with an extensive background in numerical modelling; I certainly wouldn't be placing much confidence in modelled numbers right now. [/QUOTE]
Verification
Post reply
Forums
Other Stuff
The Clubhouse Bar
[COVID-19] General Discussion
Top