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The Clubhouse Bar
[COVID-19] General Discussion
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<blockquote data-quote="ncurd" data-source="post: 990596" data-attributes="member: 72205"><p>I don't want get into the nitty gritty of applying stats to a worst case scenario. We'd all be guilty of making many assumptions with no worthwhile data. Plus you guys are trying to prove that in the worst case scenario things will be bad and nobody I think is denying that.</p><p></p><p>Effects on GDP are economic based not virology. Then as you rightly pointed out a political decision has to be made at which point does the economic impact outweighs the impact due to death. Not a fun decision for anyone and certainly not purely academic.</p><p></p><p>So what we are talking about at the moment is shutting down large scale gatherings of people for sporting events. Now there is likely going to be a point this has to happen. However the questions that need to be asked/answered, what are realistic chances that mass infections will occur? Is that risk higher or lower than normal commuters using mass public transport to attend thier workplace? Will putting those measures in place now actually slow the rate of infection beyond a negligible difference?</p><p></p><p>All stuff we don't have the data or the knowledge to even begin to comprehend. Sure we can go get the big ticket numbers apply some changes to low ball it but that's only basic impact analysis rather than actually working if doing this one thing with have any impact long term.</p><p></p><p></p><p>So here's a better test. When the EU referendum occurs how many experts spoke out and continue to this day speak about the huge negative impacts Brexit will have? Now how many experts now are speaking out saying the government is being wreckless at this present time?</p><p></p><p></p><p>You'll know when events and mass gathering should be shut down and government is running roughshod because people with actual knowledge will speak out. You forget these people tend to ******* hate Johnson and the Tories with a passion and if they could throw them under a bus they would.</p><p></p><p>I don't trust the government one iota.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="ncurd, post: 990596, member: 72205"] I don't want get into the nitty gritty of applying stats to a worst case scenario. We'd all be guilty of making many assumptions with no worthwhile data. Plus you guys are trying to prove that in the worst case scenario things will be bad and nobody I think is denying that. Effects on GDP are economic based not virology. Then as you rightly pointed out a political decision has to be made at which point does the economic impact outweighs the impact due to death. Not a fun decision for anyone and certainly not purely academic. So what we are talking about at the moment is shutting down large scale gatherings of people for sporting events. Now there is likely going to be a point this has to happen. However the questions that need to be asked/answered, what are realistic chances that mass infections will occur? Is that risk higher or lower than normal commuters using mass public transport to attend thier workplace? Will putting those measures in place now actually slow the rate of infection beyond a negligible difference? All stuff we don't have the data or the knowledge to even begin to comprehend. Sure we can go get the big ticket numbers apply some changes to low ball it but that's only basic impact analysis rather than actually working if doing this one thing with have any impact long term. So here's a better test. When the EU referendum occurs how many experts spoke out and continue to this day speak about the huge negative impacts Brexit will have? Now how many experts now are speaking out saying the government is being wreckless at this present time? You'll know when events and mass gathering should be shut down and government is running roughshod because people with actual knowledge will speak out. You forget these people tend to ******* hate Johnson and the Tories with a passion and if they could throw them under a bus they would. I don't trust the government one iota. [/QUOTE]
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