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The Clubhouse Bar
[COVID-19] General Discussion
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<blockquote data-quote="Yoshimitsu" data-source="post: 990726" data-attributes="member: 71899"><p>That's an entirely fair challenge. However, to get to a figure of 17,000 deaths as per seasonal flu you'd be looking at 1.7 million infections (with a mortality of 1% ). That would equate to 2.83% of the general population becoming infected.</p><p></p><p>At the moment based on observable cases the WHO have stated that 3.4% of confirmed cases have died. It's recognised that this cannot be used as reliable mortality figure as mild / asymptomatic cases are probably massively under reported. Some believe that Covid-19 may in fact be no worse in terms of mortality than flu. However, there is reasonable consensus on 1%. That's significantly more deadly than seasonal flu (approx 10x)</p><p></p><p>However, the points still stand. It's this + flu not either / or. The NHS can barely cope with the latter. It's going to be significantly challenged by Covid-19 should it take any meaningful hold. Given the government's stated strategy of contain, delay then mitigate it'll be interesting to see if / when they move to the latter.</p><p></p><p>on edit 12:24 - Well that aged badly. That time is now. Containment is no longer where we stand. We're now in "delay". I'd expect some impacts on transport / mass gathering at this stage.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Yoshimitsu, post: 990726, member: 71899"] That's an entirely fair challenge. However, to get to a figure of 17,000 deaths as per seasonal flu you'd be looking at 1.7 million infections (with a mortality of 1% ). That would equate to 2.83% of the general population becoming infected. At the moment based on observable cases the WHO have stated that 3.4% of confirmed cases have died. It's recognised that this cannot be used as reliable mortality figure as mild / asymptomatic cases are probably massively under reported. Some believe that Covid-19 may in fact be no worse in terms of mortality than flu. However, there is reasonable consensus on 1%. That's significantly more deadly than seasonal flu (approx 10x) However, the points still stand. It's this + flu not either / or. The NHS can barely cope with the latter. It's going to be significantly challenged by Covid-19 should it take any meaningful hold. Given the government's stated strategy of contain, delay then mitigate it'll be interesting to see if / when they move to the latter. on edit 12:24 - Well that aged badly. That time is now. Containment is no longer where we stand. We're now in "delay". I'd expect some impacts on transport / mass gathering at this stage. [/QUOTE]
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