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The Clubhouse Bar
[COVID-19] General Discussion
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<blockquote data-quote="Amiga500" data-source="post: 991522" data-attributes="member: 56767"><p>So is the plan to wait till it does spread en-mass at a big event then cancel them from that point onward?</p><p></p><p><a href="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/660/cpsprodpb/B444/production/_111184164_optimised-uk_cases_byday_8mar-nc.png" target="_blank">https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/660/cpsprodpb/B444/production/_111184164_optimised-uk_cases_byday_8mar-nc.png</a></p><p></p><p>Does the wee bar have to hit a threshold before they decide it might be worthwhile trying to reduce the potential for it jumping four or fivefold overnight?</p><p></p><p></p><p>We are currently running at an average increase of 35% every day.</p><p></p><p>By this time next week (16th), we are looking at 3,000 cases in the UK.</p><p>By this time 2 weeks (23rd), we are looking at 24,500 cases in the UK.</p><p></p><p></p><p>Assuming ~10% of cases needing critical care (which based on Italy is optimistic), and there being < 4500 critical care beds across the UK, with only around 20% of those available at any one time, by the 18th of March the NHS will be at breaking point.</p><p></p><p>By the 24th March, even if every existing ICU bed could be cleared of its current patient, the NHS couldn't cope.</p><p></p><p>Temporary beds will alleviate the pressure a bit. But by 31st of March we're looking at 270,000 cases with perhaps 27,000 of those needing critical care.</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p>So just what the f**k are they waiting on before trying more drastic measures to slow down the spread?</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p>[Even by removing outliers in the statistics, the growth rate is still 30% per day]</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Amiga500, post: 991522, member: 56767"] So is the plan to wait till it does spread en-mass at a big event then cancel them from that point onward? [URL]https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/660/cpsprodpb/B444/production/_111184164_optimised-uk_cases_byday_8mar-nc.png[/URL] Does the wee bar have to hit a threshold before they decide it might be worthwhile trying to reduce the potential for it jumping four or fivefold overnight? We are currently running at an average increase of 35% every day. By this time next week (16th), we are looking at 3,000 cases in the UK. By this time 2 weeks (23rd), we are looking at 24,500 cases in the UK. Assuming ~10% of cases needing critical care (which based on Italy is optimistic), and there being < 4500 critical care beds across the UK, with only around 20% of those available at any one time, by the 18th of March the NHS will be at breaking point. By the 24th March, even if every existing ICU bed could be cleared of its current patient, the NHS couldn't cope. Temporary beds will alleviate the pressure a bit. But by 31st of March we're looking at 270,000 cases with perhaps 27,000 of those needing critical care. So just what the f**k are they waiting on before trying more drastic measures to slow down the spread? [Even by removing outliers in the statistics, the growth rate is still 30% per day] [/QUOTE]
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