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[COVID-19] General Discussion
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<blockquote data-quote="Yoshimitsu" data-source="post: 991603" data-attributes="member: 71899"><p>O.K. I hope people will take this in the spirit it's meant. I have no "facts" to offer over those presented up thread. I am however old enough to have seen governments sell the Falklands war, Iraq war 1, Iraq war 2, Afghanistan whilst not forgetting Kosovo and things like "the troubles" etc..</p><p></p><p>There is no single truth that would ever have allowed objective analysis at the time. General Belgrano? Either a significant threat or an ageing asset that could have been safely ignored. Bloody Sunday? Mass murder by British soldiers or reaction to armed agitators who shot at them? Gulf war 1 an answer to aggression by Saddam Hussein or an attempt to secure oil for future adventures / economic reasons? Gulf war 2 WMD or further imperialism / Bush's ego etc. etc.</p><p></p><p>With what we're currently facing it's not unreasonable to compare and contrast the actions of various governments. China locked down 11 million people (that's not insignificant). Having reacted slowly they clearly recognised an existential threat and imposed draconian measure to try and contain it. South Korea are on a war footing and have deployed significant resources to try and contain it (it looks like they are winning today). Italy are currently failing. Their infection growth curve is almost perfectly exponential and they seriously messed up their lockdown. They have now introduced measures to try and avoid that. Anyone with a passing knowledge of exponentiality knows that time is not your friend. Small numbers become big numbers very fast indeed. Simply doubling from 1 gives you over 1 million by day 20. Now it can't run like that because of many factors but you get the idea.</p><p></p><p>It's not beyond the realms of possibility that given the magnitude of the challenge that decisions have already been made. Shutting things down / cancelling events may indeed slow the rate of infection. However, flattening the curve only matters to the degree which you can ramp up resources to deal with it. If there's nothing you can do that will have any material affect then why do it? In fact given the fact that panic will reign should the truth become known then a convenient pretence of doing "something" might serve a greater purpose than actually doing anything.</p><p></p><p>I'm not saying that's what's happening here. However, the chances of me taking anything the government have to say at face value are practically zero at this point. Last week contradictory statements were made about where we were in terms of "containment" vs "delay". This week we've got Whitty stating that all respiratory issues should be subject to 7 day isolation (coming soon). We have people saying that mass gathering events aren't an issue yet other countries have already shut these down. Madrid being the latest to impose significant restrictions. We still have flights to the U.K. returning from Milan with zero screening. It's like no one cares.</p><p></p><p>As I stated previously waiting until things get really bad seems a poor strategy to me. I'm not willing to put my safety in the hands of the state and have prepared to a reasonable degree (loo roll smallest of problems)...</p><p></p><p>I sincerely hope that ncurd is right and the Government have judged this correctly in accordance with expert advice that's primarily based on the welfare of human beings.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Yoshimitsu, post: 991603, member: 71899"] O.K. I hope people will take this in the spirit it's meant. I have no "facts" to offer over those presented up thread. I am however old enough to have seen governments sell the Falklands war, Iraq war 1, Iraq war 2, Afghanistan whilst not forgetting Kosovo and things like "the troubles" etc.. There is no single truth that would ever have allowed objective analysis at the time. General Belgrano? Either a significant threat or an ageing asset that could have been safely ignored. Bloody Sunday? Mass murder by British soldiers or reaction to armed agitators who shot at them? Gulf war 1 an answer to aggression by Saddam Hussein or an attempt to secure oil for future adventures / economic reasons? Gulf war 2 WMD or further imperialism / Bush's ego etc. etc. With what we're currently facing it's not unreasonable to compare and contrast the actions of various governments. China locked down 11 million people (that's not insignificant). Having reacted slowly they clearly recognised an existential threat and imposed draconian measure to try and contain it. South Korea are on a war footing and have deployed significant resources to try and contain it (it looks like they are winning today). Italy are currently failing. Their infection growth curve is almost perfectly exponential and they seriously messed up their lockdown. They have now introduced measures to try and avoid that. Anyone with a passing knowledge of exponentiality knows that time is not your friend. Small numbers become big numbers very fast indeed. Simply doubling from 1 gives you over 1 million by day 20. Now it can't run like that because of many factors but you get the idea. It's not beyond the realms of possibility that given the magnitude of the challenge that decisions have already been made. Shutting things down / cancelling events may indeed slow the rate of infection. However, flattening the curve only matters to the degree which you can ramp up resources to deal with it. If there's nothing you can do that will have any material affect then why do it? In fact given the fact that panic will reign should the truth become known then a convenient pretence of doing "something" might serve a greater purpose than actually doing anything. I'm not saying that's what's happening here. However, the chances of me taking anything the government have to say at face value are practically zero at this point. Last week contradictory statements were made about where we were in terms of "containment" vs "delay". This week we've got Whitty stating that all respiratory issues should be subject to 7 day isolation (coming soon). We have people saying that mass gathering events aren't an issue yet other countries have already shut these down. Madrid being the latest to impose significant restrictions. We still have flights to the U.K. returning from Milan with zero screening. It's like no one cares. As I stated previously waiting until things get really bad seems a poor strategy to me. I'm not willing to put my safety in the hands of the state and have prepared to a reasonable degree (loo roll smallest of problems)... I sincerely hope that ncurd is right and the Government have judged this correctly in accordance with expert advice that's primarily based on the welfare of human beings. [/QUOTE]
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