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<blockquote data-quote="Cruz_del_Sur" data-source="post: 887716" data-attributes="member: 55747"><p>I'll try to put feelings aside. Let's see the first 3 games: </p><p></p><p>Stormers vs Jaguares</p><p>Lions vs Jaguares</p><p>Jaguares vs Hurricanes</p><p></p><p>Call me a pessimist, but chances are we'll lose all three, two of them by quite a margin. Temperamental as we are, starting the season with a 0-0-3 record will hurts us (a lot imo) mentally.</p><p></p><p>Asume the Lions have the edge on our conference, so the main competition we face to get the second spot are the Sharks and the Stormers. Look at their first 3 games.</p><p></p><p>Stormers first 3 games</p><p>vs us, in RSA</p><p>vs Waratahs, in Aus</p><p>vs Crusaders</p><p></p><p>Odds are the get 2 out of 3</p><p></p><p>Sharks first 3 games</p><p>vs Lions</p><p>vs Waratahs</p><p>vs Sunwolves</p><p></p><p>same as above, 2 out of 3. </p><p></p><p>When you look at the table, just after 3 games each, the difference will be big already. And uphill battle is the last thing we need. </p><p></p><p>Additionally, in the past, we've lost every 50-50 game we played, every-single-one. We won, comfortably all the easy games but when the decisive ones came up (vs Sharks last season) we chocked. We can sugar coat it, but that's pretty much what happened. </p><p>We need to be second in our group to be on the safe side, and i don't see that happening. We <em>could </em>beat Stormers/Lions/Sharks on our best day, but all 3 of them would beat us on an average day. </p><p>Kindly note i am seriously underestimating the Bulls in the above analysis. I did so to simplify the analysis, not because i think they are bad. If they decide to show up (last season they did not, injuries didn't help) we could very well end last in our conference and bottom 2-3 out of Super Rugby. </p><p></p><p>I sincerely hope i am 100% wrong, but i am a numbers guy and this is what the numbers (strongly) suggest to me.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Cruz_del_Sur, post: 887716, member: 55747"] I'll try to put feelings aside. Let's see the first 3 games: Stormers vs Jaguares Lions vs Jaguares Jaguares vs Hurricanes Call me a pessimist, but chances are we'll lose all three, two of them by quite a margin. Temperamental as we are, starting the season with a 0-0-3 record will hurts us (a lot imo) mentally. Asume the Lions have the edge on our conference, so the main competition we face to get the second spot are the Sharks and the Stormers. Look at their first 3 games. Stormers first 3 games vs us, in RSA vs Waratahs, in Aus vs Crusaders Odds are the get 2 out of 3 Sharks first 3 games vs Lions vs Waratahs vs Sunwolves same as above, 2 out of 3. When you look at the table, just after 3 games each, the difference will be big already. And uphill battle is the last thing we need. Additionally, in the past, we've lost every 50-50 game we played, every-single-one. We won, comfortably all the easy games but when the decisive ones came up (vs Sharks last season) we chocked. We can sugar coat it, but that's pretty much what happened. We need to be second in our group to be on the safe side, and i don't see that happening. We [I]could [/I]beat Stormers/Lions/Sharks on our best day, but all 3 of them would beat us on an average day. Kindly note i am seriously underestimating the Bulls in the above analysis. I did so to simplify the analysis, not because i think they are bad. If they decide to show up (last season they did not, injuries didn't help) we could very well end last in our conference and bottom 2-3 out of Super Rugby. I sincerely hope i am 100% wrong, but i am a numbers guy and this is what the numbers (strongly) suggest to me. [/QUOTE]
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