Savea vs Cane; Smith vs Perenara; SBW vs Crotty; Savea vs Naholo

[Caitlyn Jenner]

In my mind these are the 4 most contentious selection decisions to be made for the ABs starting line up to play the Lions, so I was interested to see what others think...
Personally my preference is: Savea, Smith, SBW, Savea.

Ardie vs Cane...... I think Ardie just offers more and has more of an impact than Cane. This year he has noticeably worked on the supposed weaker aspects of his game (physicality in the tackle, breakdown work) and I think is generally a better performer than Cane now. In saying that, he is an awesome off the bench impact player, so that'll probs count against his starting prospects, but I'd still like to see him given the 7 jersey.

Smith vs TJ...... At this point I know I'm probably in the minority here, but I just think that Smith's game is so vital to the way the ABs play and his impact on the side is greater than Perenara's. The way he marshals the side and especially his quick delivery just give us that extra edge.

SBW vs Crotty...... I reckon SBW over Crotty because, again, SBW offers more. He has also proven in the past that he performs well at test level, so we shouldn't doubt his reliability. Crotty has too, but SBW just brings another dimension to our play, whereas Crotty doesn't really add anything besides stability. Admittedly though, he hasn't really impressed yet this year, so I really hope he finds form and justifies his place.
There's the possibility here too that ALB, Ngatai and Laumape may be options, but I think that's less likely.

Julian vs Naholo...... I prefer Savea to Naholo, but that really just comes down to personal taste. Looking at it objectively, Naholo has probably performed better and justified his place more of late, but I just rate Savea more highly as a player.

 

[mania]

what an awesome selection headache for a coach

cane cant be underestimated. he's a tireless work horse who does the grunt work so that the other players can do the flash stuff. u need cane to lay the platform. ardie is similar but imo a better impact player.

TJ's rugby this year has gone thru the roof. agree that smith is more suited to ABs game plan but we need more than one game plan and TJ is the one to spearhead that.

Crotty, hands down. not only is SBW not ready but even at his best he is no where near as effective as crotty.

im a canes boy but naholo is streaks ahead faster than savea and i reckon a little bit hungrier. savea is still a great player tho.

 

[Larksea]

Cane - just the type of player he is is more important to the AB's, doesn't have the speed or trademark leg Drive of Savea but Cane is the best defender probably in NZ hes cool headed, experienced and part of the AB's senior leadership group. I was on the fence a bit recently but Cane had a massive game last weekend which is great news.

Tricky one, I think TJ deserves to start because of his overall form and consistency but if smith keeps his current form up he will likely get his starting role back. Either way they are both just as important IMO. I can see Perenara playing a very important role off the bench if that is the way it ends up.

really the whole mid field is a bit of a mystery, I would hope to see more improvement from SBW over the coming weeks and select him but I dont think he is there yet. Right now Crotty is the safer option.

Naholo by a landslide. Naholo is consistently good. always a threat and gets involved in the game and has an established combination with the likes of Ben Smith and Aaron Smith. Savea is consistently inconsistent can anyone honestly say they know how Savea is going to play if he takes the field for the AB's? Honestly I would sooner recall Cory Jane, Savea is always suspect on defence while Cory Jane has become a suberb defender, world class under the high ball and a really smart attacking game.

 

[mania]

Cane - just the type of player he is is more important to the AB's, doesn't have the speed or trademark leg Drive of Savea but Cane is the best defender probably in NZ hes cool headed, experienced and part of the AB's senior leadership group..

agree . cane sets the platform and softens up the oppn. when ardie comes he's a completely different type of player and the oppn have to take time to adjust . in that time ardies already done heaps of damage.
midfield maybe a mystery but the incumbents are fine. if we go thru the series with crotty and ALB then ABs are well served.

 

[Caitlyn Jenner]

im a canes boy but naholo is streaks ahead faster than savea and i reckon a little bit hungrier. savea is still a great player tho.

Yea I don't completely disagree with you here, Naholo has been far more consistent over the past couple years and, as you said, looks genuinely hungrier than Savea. I still think Savea has it in him to be a better player than Naholo, but I think it would be fair to pick Naholo ahead of him, even though I'm a big Savea fan.
I just hope he can find some resemblance of the form he had between 2012-2014, because he's got himself into a position to smash heaps of records and be remembered as an all time great, but it's looking more and more like he's gonna throw that opportunity away.

really the whole mid field is a bit of a mystery, I would hope to see more improvement from SBW over the coming weeks and select him but I dont think he is there yet. Right now Crotty is the safer option.

That's my thinking too. I picked SBW on the basis that I think (or at least hope) that he will prove himself over the coming weeks and warrant selection, but if I was picking a team to play this weekend, I too would go with Crotty.

 

[Radsy]

Ardie will be starting at 8 at this rate. Cane is the best openside in the world.

Surprised by the Naholo love here. He is very mistake prone, especially when he's denied space for long stretches. Admittedly, he's a monster when at his best. Impact sub until proven otherwise for me. He was a joke in Chicago. Savea still reigns in the black jersey.

SBW is making to many crucial errors in his return. Not an 80 minute player yet. Crotty is reliable. ALB is better.

Smith v Perenera is the closest call. Smith's pass off the deck gives that extra half second that matters deeply in test matches.

 

[Larksea]

I think Savea at 8 for test footy would be a huge mistake. Sure we would get away with it against most teams. Sure we want to have a mobility advantage over the lions but not at the complete sacrifice of size and height. Give away too much height and weight and it will cost us big time.

I also dont agree at all with the idea Naholo is more prone to mistakes than Savea... Savea has been prone to some basic errors lately and isn't a great defender of overlaps or when he needs to turn. While Naholo has proven to be a pretty accurate and committed defender.

seriously, Savea has been constantly selected for the last few years because he has 2 or 3 massive games a year, usually when pressure comes on him after a long stretch of questionable form, and usually in games we were strong and would have won anyway.

IMO Luke whitelock is ideal as a backup for Read. Shields wouldn't be a bad option either though I think its important to select a guy who spends more time at 8. With both Read, Kaino and Squire injured Messam is an obvious experienced option and has been playing at 8 a fair bit. I also think that Akira Ioane has been playing a lot better recently, he wasn't really an option after patchy early season form but he looks pretty darn good right now. In recent showings even more so than Luatua IMO.

I think when you get multiple people injured it becomes a balancing act, you got to get the balance right and make sure all the right skills are there. Its also a very good reason to Keep cane at 7 he instantly becomes the leader in the loose forwards.

 

[mania]

I think Savea at 8 for test footy would be a huge mistake.
I also dont agree at all with the idea Naholo is more prone to mistakes than Savea.
In recent showings even more so than Luatua IMO.
.

agree.
ardie isnt a lineout option. whilst a good 8 playing against superSides i think we'd get exploited in a test.
naholo makes heaps less errors, turns and chases better and gets involved a lot more. plus he's got faster acceleration and top speed tan savea.
i doubt luatua will see another test cap now that he's signed overseas

 

[smartcooky]

cane cant be underestimated. he's a tireless work horse who does the grunt work so that the other players can do the flash stuff. u need cane to lay the platform. ardie is similar but imo a better impact player..

Cane - just the type of player he is is more important to the AB's, doesn't have the speed or trademark leg Drive of Savea but Cane is the best defender probably in NZ hes cool headed, experienced and part of the AB's senior leadership group. I was on the fence a bit recently but Cane had a massive game last weekend which is great news.

Anyone who doesn't believe or understand this, just go to a Chiefs match and do what the AB selectors do... watch only Sam Cane for 20 minutes. Follow him around the field and see just how much work he gets through.... clean outs and close support play at the tackle/ruck breakdown never show up in the "ball playing" stats; that's why you have really watch the player to see what he does.

 

[Ground We Won]

I actually quite like the way we do it, Cane is pretty solid and an absolute work horse and then bringing on the likes of Ardie and TJ in the 2nd half when the opposition is starting to fade and most teams can't match our bench at all. It really opens games up, they are fresh and powerful and incredibly quick and the opposition can't handle them.

Smith might be a bit out off form, but his distribution and passing technique and leadership is pretty invaluable. I think he might find his touch again soon, he's coming around. TJ undoubtedly has had a better 2 seasons, but he's critical towards the end of the game to up the tempo and really take it to the opposition, I really like him coming off the bench and just lifting that intensity.

Crotty is a good starter for stability as well and we can bring on a more expansive player in the 2nd half to open things up. As for SBW, he hasn't done nearly enough to justify getting a spot on the bank, let alone a place in the starting XV. That's a big question mark. We have a lot of inform centres currently that shouldn't lose out to SBW. I think it'd be a bad message to drop any of the current lot in favour of him, until he breaks back into the top 4/5 inform centres in the country.

Savea is pretty consistent with the AB's. Naholo is really good, but still yet to solidify a starting spot.

So I think the way we have it is perfect. Starting the solid guys, then bringing on the game breakers in the 2nd half to get home. So I'd start;

Cane
Smith
Crotty
Savea

 

[Radsy]

Luke Whitelock injured. Any word on what it is? I wouldn't prefer Ardie at 8, but once again, at this rate...

In all likelihood, Read will be wearing the 8 on by the first test as he explained this week.

Who is the going to be the 6? Hard to trust that Kaino will be right after a meniscus snip at his age.

It's crazy how many guys are racing the clock with their injuries.

 

[Caitlyn Jenner]

It's crazy how many guys are racing the clock with their injuries.

Yes it is! You've got Coles, Read, Kaino, NMS, Dagg and Squire all in a very tight race with the clock to make the series.
On top of that, we've still got injuries to Ben Smith, SBW, Sopoaga and Cruden. They should all be back relatively soon but still... it's a bit concerning.
(Were there any names I missed??)

Who is the going to be the 6? Hard to trust that Kaino will be right after a meniscus snip at his age.

If Kaino's fit it will be him. If not, then Squire is the incumbent, but he too is in doubt. After that you've got Dixon, Shields, Taufua, Luatua and Messam. Take your pick! Personally, I'd go with Shields. He would perform the Kaino role perfectly, same sort of player, and he's been consistently good for a long time now. He deserves it.
Dixon was in the ABs last year but his for has dropped dramatically so I doubt he'll get in there.
Luatua is a good player in good form, and was on the EOY tour last year, so he'right in contention too

For me the pecking order for the starting 6 is: Kaino > Squire > Shields > Luatua > Dixon > Messam > Taufua.

And there's always the option of putting Cane at 6, Ardie at 7.........

 

[The Jones Boy]

Crotty is a small short utility player.
He goes missing when the big boys come calling.
Sonny Bill Williams is a champion.
A proven champion.
World Cup winner.
He plays anywhere and shines (even ay my stinky Blues) he tackles like an open cast mining tractor and his bag of tricks is unparalleled except by the magic of Beauden Barrett.

 

[Radsy]

I haven't seen Crotty go missing, he just becomes a role player at the international level. He was shining yesterday vs the Hurricanes!

That being said, SBW will be in the matchday 23. He is a world champion....as an impact sub.

 

[The Jones Boy]

Crotty has one gear, it's a quick gear but it's only one.
Sony Bill goes throuygh the gears, and injury has hampered him but there's still plenty of time for the monster to hit his straps and at the highest level, when the tough get going, thats where he is at his best.
Thats when Crotty drops back to fill a role, maybe in time the younger man will show more strings to his bow, I do like him, but, we don't have anyone else like the special one.

 

[mania]

SBW is massive talented athlete when fit but is an impact player. Crottys a starter and has many different ways of attacking. Crotty rarely makes bad decisions and considering how often he gets involved that's pretty impressive. Never seen crotty go missing nor this one gear.

 

[Larksea]

Crotty was excellent on the weekend. Looked very much like the way he played when he was at his best for the AB's last year. Good skills, good decisions.
I'm starting to think with all the uncertainty and injuries the selectors are going to look for consistency where they can. Crotty is probably a lock in for starting right now. SBW will likely be in the squad, they could even partner up depending on how things go. SBW needs a big game this weekend though...

I know people really like Ardie Savea, he is a very good player and he puts big efforts in. But another thing that was plain to see from the Canes vs Crusaders game is that Matt Todd is clearly a better than Ardie right now. And more effective in ways that make him a better option for test matches. I dont see Ardie starting, Cane will surely be selected there and if cane is injured we have seen in the past that the selectors prefer Todd to come in and start. Todd has been an absolute beast, I actually think he is our #1 7 in terms of form and consistency in super rugby. Cane has been preferred because he is young and been groomed basically since he was out of school - and it has very much paid off.

The Idea of Ardie playing at 8 is for the AB's simply madness IMO, how does he combat the likes of billy vunipola & toby faletau? No way... we simply cant give away 20-30kg at #8 against the lions. we need a #8 who is 110kg+ and has lineout height. If Read is injured IMO the options are luke whitelock, Liam Messam and Brad Shields. I'd even tend to shy from Luatua who is big, tall and quick but doesn't have the phyiscal impact of the aforementioned.

julian savea is frustrating. I dont mean to hate on the saveas they are great players, IMO Ardie is brilliant but Cane and Todd are simply better right now... But I look at the hurricanes backline... Which has been amazing this season and I think Julian has been the least consistent performer of all the regulars in that backline. And I dont understand how people still call him a safe option when he consistently makes errors on defense. He has become "OK" or "good enough" under the high ball but his defense is constantly found wanting. Heck his first involvement this weekend was a 1 on 1 defending Stea and instead of using the sideline and depriving him of space he stood his ground then went straight for him and Seta went straight around him. That miss on defense was a pretty typical example of what you see from Savea on a regular basis.

Perenara was brilliant on the weekend. Easily one of the hurricanes best, have not watched the highlanders game yet. If smith is still finding form then we are simply going to be in a great position at 9. I think TJ deserves to start but if smith stays in great form then he will likely start, but as I said both are critical. I actually really like the idea of Perenara starting and smith coming off the bench. Smith could be super dangerous in the last 20 against the lions.

 

[smartcooky]

Crotty is a small short utility player.
He goes missing when the big boys come calling.

Rubbish. He is the glue in the Crusaders backline and one of the best tacklers there; he tackles all comers, big or small. But more importantly he has an all around game, kicking, running passing, offloading & tackling, and his positional play is outstanding. It is also an intelligent footballer who can make gaps where there appear to be none.

SBW is a very good player too, but but he doesn't have the all round skills of Crotty (SBW's kicking game is pants, and in the early part of matches, good kicking skills are a requirement of any player in a Black 12 jersey). Also, he's not a thinker he's a doer; that's why he's not a member of the AB's leadership group (and Crotty is). SBW is too easy to contain as a starter when defenses are fresh; he's best suited coming off the bench and exploiting tired defenses with his direct running and offloading game (and note that Shag used him exactly this way both the RWC finals he played in).

RWC 2011 - Seven matches, three as starter (of which one was on the wing), and four off the bench
RWC 2015 - Seven matches, two as starter, five off the bench.

If you remember, he broke the game open when he was subbed on for Conrad Smith at half time in the 2015 final. It was his direct running and offloading that led directly to Ma'a Nonu's try. This is what he does best, as an impact player off the bench.

 

[Larksea]

I agree to a point but I think he can have value as a starter.

one big aspect of SBWs game is that the players around him need to be aware and have the skills to take his offloads. So often I see players that are not familiar playing with SBW and they run off him and dont expect an offload till it hits them in the head if you know what I mean. SBW is a massive danger when he has guy around him who always expect the offload and have good hands.

We cant really afford to have SBW's offloads be knocked on or go to ground early in big test matches... having almost no run into the lions series does limit the time to develop the continuity and familiarity required to take advantage of SBW's attacking game...

 

[mania]

Crotty was excellent on the weekend.

agree about crotty. but SBW if he's fit and ups his game will be on the bench. big but tho cos SBW's 2 games to date (the 2nd curtailed due to concussion) didnt impress me. whereas crotty has been mrReliable for a few seasons now.
i reckon ardie is more than enough to handle vunipola & faletau toe to toe despite the massive weight difference . ardies got more heart, fight and a bigger engine.
saying that and despite being a canes supporter gotta say todd is a ruck warrior unmatched by anyone else in nz at the moment. todd is like the tide. relentless, tireless and you just cant stop him. with kaino injured i'd move samCane to 6, todd to start at 7. ardie on the bench.
i wouldnt put sheilds forward as an 8 option. he's much more effective as a 6. 8 needs to be a dynamic ball carrier off the back of the scrum. shield just doesnt have the acceleration.
agree that julian made some errors in the weekend but he wasnt the only one. but yeah julians gonna lose his jersey if he doesnt improve his accuracy and increase his involement.
imo TJ deserves to start. he was the incumbent at the end of last year and hasnt been supplanted yet by aSmith. but either way ABs are really well served with their HB options