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The Clubhouse Bar
Scottish independence referendum
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<blockquote data-quote="Peat" data-source="post: 668495" data-attributes="member: 42330"><p>Unless the polls change radically, Scotland will stay, for the simple reason that the SNP have failed to publicly make the economics stand up. If Scots thought that leaving would make them richer, they'd do so tomorrow. There is an argument for it happening, but the SNP haven't made it well, instead retreating to "We're right and you're wrong" as a debating point with amusing regularity. They've failed to make a coherent case over currency, they've been caught with their pants down over the EU and they've mostly failed to win any business support. </p><p></p><p>I have to say, part of me will be sad when it's gone. It has been keeping me entertained at work for the past year. It's also been rage inducing and depressing; I don't think of the participants have covered themselves in glory. The SNP and friends have been content to debate it entirely on emotion, the Better Together campaign to play on uncertainty. There's been nothing bold or striving about either campaign.</p><p> </p><p></p><p></p><p>They have already announced plans and funding for the expansion of Faslane; it seems very clear that Westminster are anticipating being able to keep subs there. The SNP might be furiously opposed to such a motion but it is one of the biggest bargaining chips available to an independent Scotland and besides, there's no guarantee that the SNP would be returning to the negotiations.</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p>In the unlikely circumstances of such a war, I believe that the Golden Share that the British Government holds in BAE would allow them to simply order the company to immediately stop any and all provision of materiel to Scotland. Obviously, such a thing would not happen, but do not mistake BAE for a fully independent company.</p><p></p><p>It should also be noted that the division of mobile military assets such as the Typhoon is up for debate. What share they're entitled to, how much they would barter away for other considerations and so on would all have to be settled.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Peat, post: 668495, member: 42330"] Unless the polls change radically, Scotland will stay, for the simple reason that the SNP have failed to publicly make the economics stand up. If Scots thought that leaving would make them richer, they'd do so tomorrow. There is an argument for it happening, but the SNP haven't made it well, instead retreating to "We're right and you're wrong" as a debating point with amusing regularity. They've failed to make a coherent case over currency, they've been caught with their pants down over the EU and they've mostly failed to win any business support. I have to say, part of me will be sad when it's gone. It has been keeping me entertained at work for the past year. It's also been rage inducing and depressing; I don't think of the participants have covered themselves in glory. The SNP and friends have been content to debate it entirely on emotion, the Better Together campaign to play on uncertainty. There's been nothing bold or striving about either campaign. They have already announced plans and funding for the expansion of Faslane; it seems very clear that Westminster are anticipating being able to keep subs there. The SNP might be furiously opposed to such a motion but it is one of the biggest bargaining chips available to an independent Scotland and besides, there's no guarantee that the SNP would be returning to the negotiations. In the unlikely circumstances of such a war, I believe that the Golden Share that the British Government holds in BAE would allow them to simply order the company to immediately stop any and all provision of materiel to Scotland. Obviously, such a thing would not happen, but do not mistake BAE for a fully independent company. It should also be noted that the division of mobile military assets such as the Typhoon is up for debate. What share they're entitled to, how much they would barter away for other considerations and so on would all have to be settled. [/QUOTE]
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