The IRB's 6 Nations statistical analysis

[ratsapprentice]

http://www.irb.com/mm/document/news...9/140331rj2014sixnationsstatisticalreview.pdf

Some excerpts:

Scoring

There were 37 tries scored in the 2013 SixNations, giving an average of 2.5 per match. This was not only the lowest average in SixNations history, but the lowest in the 18 years since the Game went professional in 1995. It was the continuation of a steady decline in try scoring since 2000.

This changed in 2014... in the 2014 Six Nations there were 61tries scored, producing an average of 4.1 tries per match, a level last reached in 2007.

Last year in the Six Nations:
•Penalty goals averaged 6.3 per match which was the highest since the FiveNations Championship restarted after the Second World War in 1947.
•Penalty goals outnumbered tries by two and a half times to one â€" a ratio exceeded just once in the 66 years since 1947.

...It was a different story in 2014. Penalty goals reduced to 4.3 per match while the ratio of tries to penalty goals reached almost one to one,thanks to the 20tries scored on the last day.

Scrums

An analysis of this year’s Six Nations scrums shows that there was no reduction in the rate of collapse compared to 2013. There was a small reduction in the rate of scrum resets. There was a 20% reduction in the rate of scrum penalties and free kicks. The time taken for the completion of a scrum remained close to 60 seconds. There were three free kicks for crooked feeds in the 15 matches, compared to none in 2013.

In examining scrums, research over several years has shown that not all teams produce similar scrum profiles â€" when certain teams play there happen to be many more collapses, resets and sanctions than in other teams’ matches. This happened in both 2013 and 2014, where Wales headed the tables in both collapses and sanctions. The tables below show that this year, for example, when Wales played there were 67% more collapses than when Italy played and almost three times more scrum penalties as Ireland’s matches. In 2014, such figures were not distorted by certain exceptional matches. The high rate of collapse and sanction occurred in all of Wales’ five matches. When matches involving Wales were excluded, the overall figures were much more positive. In the 10 matches not involving Wales there were 32% fewer collapses and half the number of penalties and free kicks. In Ireland’s matches, scrums had more positive outcomes. In rounds two and four, for example, the ball came back into play 22 times in 24 scrums. In Wales’ matches in round two and four, it came back seven times in 21 scrums. Welsh matches also contained a disproportionate percentage of pre-feed collapses. When Wales matches were excluded, the ratio of pre-feed to post-feed collapses was 29 to 71. When included, the ratio moved to 43 to 57 indicating scrum engagement issues in Wales matches. In total there were 49 pre-feed collapses, 28 of them in Wales matches.

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

I've argued with a Welsh person I know that Wales aren't all that in the scrum but he never believed me, nor did he believe me when I said Walsh was 1 sided in reffing the scrum last year. Statistics are nice.

 

[Big Ewis]

I've rated Wales super high in the scrum as of the past few years in their given makeup, but lately it's true, when reading that collapse frequency it does ring bells in my head. I remember Jenkins and Mas got binned last Feb. and we never got to really see the plays, but the collapses are indeed an issue if I remember correctly for the guys in red.
I didn't even feel like making my ALL SCRUMS vids last 6N because almost all the matches had shty scrums...a very strange season scrum-wise this year.

Domingo having his way the entire night, every single time against Cole to start the tournament, was alright against Adam Jones but then started struggling huge against Scotland and Ireland (wtff ??) - note: I know Ireland are an improved side. Ireland had the upper hand against Wales...weird year.

The rules are obviously a huge element. When the FK, with all due respect, is the last time you saw Nicolas Mas and France pushed back against Scotland ??!!!!!!
I saw that, I think my eyebrows were frowning so intensely I injured my facial muscular tissue.

 

[TheSaffycen]

In fairness if I recall correctly, last year we had ****ing dreadful weather so i'm not surprised that not many tries were scored. It's what annoys me with Southern Hemisphere fans and pundits who say we don't score enough tries, you trying doing it when you keep slipping over and the ball is muddy and wet !
And onto the scrum debate, Wales have always got the rub of the green because they had Adam Jones at his best and refs just thought that it must be the other guys fault because he's a great scrummager. All the while Jenkins is getting ****ed left right centre and yet he never got anything against him, now Jones aint at his best Jenkins can't hide behind him and refs can see he is getting royally screwed in the scrum. Ewis the Scotland pack isn't that terrible, Grant-Ford-The Vicar of dibley Murray can all scrummage very well, and France didn't turn up in that game at all.

 

[ratsapprentice]

In fairness if I recall correctly, last year we had ****ing dreadful weather so i'm not surprised that not many tries were scored.

There were 37 tries scored in the 2013 SixNations, giving an average of 2.5 per match. This was not only the lowest average in SixNations history, but the lowest in the 18 years since the Game went professional in 1995. It was the continuation of a steady decline in try scoring since 2000.

Key sentence.

Not that I disagree regarding the weather - moving the season to the summer would be phenomenal.

 

[Feicarsinn]

People always neglect the defensive improvement of Italy from those first few years when talking about the try count. When it became difficult for teams to put 50 on them consistently the amount of tries scored remarkably went down. Now that they're **** again it's going up. Some mystery.

 

[TheSaffycen]

Key sentence.

Not that I disagree regarding the weather - moving the season to the summer would be phenomenal.

Fair enough, I will now take my hat and jump out the window

 

[SelimNiai]

Fair enough, I will now take my hat and jump out the window

 

[McTallshort]

Jenkins is a famous scrum dropper, does surprise me at all and it shouldnt surprise anyone he picked a yellow card for his troubles.

 

[goodNumber10]

I broached the number of trys point in my blog - good to see it confirmed.

Interesting to see wales are struggling with the new scrum laws.

 

[goodNumber10]

People always neglect the defensive improvement of Italy from those first few years when talking about the try count. When it became difficult for teams to put 50 on them consistently the amount of tries scored remarkably went down. Now that they're **** again it's going up. Some mystery.

yeah, the ireland and england vs italy games, and Wales Scotland certainly skew the stats somewhat, accounting for 21 of those 61 trys - so a third score in three games.

I do think there was a real intent to attack this year though.

 

[lynam1104]

yeah, the ireland and england vs italy games, and Wales Scotland certainly skew the stats somewhat, accounting for 21 of those 61 trys - so a third score in three games.

I do think there was a real intent to attack this year though.

Your last sentence is the key, more so than last year teams appear to want to score tries. Last year was abysmal though.

 

[ratsapprentice]

Interesting to see wales are struggling with the new scrum laws.

It's not the new scrum laws though... they did it last year too.

 

[big ginger 8]

Confirms a lot of what I was thinking. Wales prefer penalties of scrums and with their (earned) reputation they'll often be favoured, whereas under Schmidt we want to play of first phase so will be more likely to just try and secure it with one shoulder up.

 

[goodNumber10]

It's not the new scrum laws though... they did it last year too.

i'm not claiming they didn't.

 

[Feicarsinn]

Well our scrum has certainly benefited.

 

[Draggs]

I think we are struggling with the scrum for a few reasons. 2011-12, when Jenkins and Jones were fit, simply put, our scrum was amongst the top on the world. Since then, Jenkins has struggled for match fitness (Toulon situation didn't help) while both have struggled getting to grips with the new laws. Jones performed better for Wales when he had a good front row at the Ospreys, week in- week out. We also didn't really develop any replacements, specifically tightheads. With 7 men benches, we used James as a tighthead, and didn't bother to try and develop one.

Mitchell was out next best option, but between injuries and moving, he fell out of favour. Andrews has never really matured, so Rhodri Jones is next up. Meanwhile, we haven't even bothered on a loosehead beyond James, save for the occasional appearance of Bevington and Gill. So what we have is two aging props with no suitable backup, both struggling for a multitude of reasons.

 

[Big Ewis]

Ewis the Scotland pack isn't that terrible, Grant-Ford-The Vicar of dibley Murray can all scrummage very well, and France didn't turn up in that game at all.

France not turning up has nothing to do with what happened in the scrum at all. Many games we play like crap, but the scrum is dominant. This is a separate matchup within the match, and there's no reason Mas and co. backpedal against the Scottish frontrow. It's a real issue, and I sure hope we can find our level of dominance again, coz man, I'm not ready to just forget about the French scrum reputation overnight like that coz ppl changed the rules - albeit to improve the game.