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The Clubhouse Bar
The macro economic discussion thread.
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<blockquote data-quote="shtove" data-source="post: 190215"><p>No, a the distinction is that Liverpool FC is a Limited Company and not a franchise. I don't understand why you keep trying to muddle the issue here. Gillet and Hicks have not had to get permission from the Premier League or the FA to either buy, run or make changes to Liverpool FC and as such, it is <em>not</em> a franchise. :lol: [/b]</p></blockquote><p></p><p>You're off track: the guys who buy in to a franchise are LLC as well. In fact, they could all be partnerships or sole traders - doesn't matter. What matters is that lenders don't care what business model is involved so long as the assets are a clear target. And what we have now is a rise in the price of credit, which may wreck the arithmetic of all sports business models, whether franchise or direct ownership.</p><p> </p><p>What you're going to see I think is a good five years of slow growth. You won't have the calamity of deflation like the Japanese experienced but its just going to be painful. Ironically, its the Japanese who are best placed to handle this. Just as they exit their 12 year credit crunch, the rest of the world enter theirs! :lol: </p><p></p><p>As for the Euro, I don't think this will accelerate the UK towards what is a highly monolithic, out of date and lethargic currency system which rewards poor short term economic policy and high budget deficits. The Euro was meant to herald a new era of fiscal responsibility, however, the actions of France, Greece and Germany have exposed this as the sham that it is.</p><p></p><p>As for the UK, any idea of the Euro being introduced here is sheer lunacy. With the housing market as unstable as it is, any sudden attempt to transfer economic policy to the ECB and remove independence to set interest rates from the Bank of England would cause immediate panic amongst lenders and house owners. Maybe in fifteen or twenty years they might consider it again but right now or even in five years, impossible. </p><p> [/b][/quote]</p><p>Best of luck with that prediction! I'm sure the exporting Japs will be happy with an appreciating currency, just like Germany - especially when US consumers are just figuring out that they've been living in la la land.</p><p></p><p>I think you and every housedebtor in the UK are in for a shock. The Square Mile banks ran a mile from the BoE in August, headed directly for Frankfurt - that's what matters to these guys. The ECB looks like the wise head in this crisis - they held firm on interest rate targets while the Fed went in to panic and the Labour government did its best to **** up any credibility that the "independent" BoE possessed.</p><p></p><p>Personally, I'm ****** off that I'll be paid in sterling for the foreseeable, because it's headed the way of the dollar and price inflation is getting nasty.</p><p>[/QUOTE]</p>
[QUOTE="shtove, post: 190215"] No, a the distinction is that Liverpool FC is a Limited Company and not a franchise. I don't understand why you keep trying to muddle the issue here. Gillet and Hicks have not had to get permission from the Premier League or the FA to either buy, run or make changes to Liverpool FC and as such, it is [i]not[/i] a franchise. :lol: [/b][/quote] You're off track: the guys who buy in to a franchise are LLC as well. In fact, they could all be partnerships or sole traders - doesn't matter. What matters is that lenders don't care what business model is involved so long as the assets are a clear target. And what we have now is a rise in the price of credit, which may wreck the arithmetic of all sports business models, whether franchise or direct ownership. What you're going to see I think is a good five years of slow growth. You won't have the calamity of deflation like the Japanese experienced but its just going to be painful. Ironically, its the Japanese who are best placed to handle this. Just as they exit their 12 year credit crunch, the rest of the world enter theirs! :lol: As for the Euro, I don't think this will accelerate the UK towards what is a highly monolithic, out of date and lethargic currency system which rewards poor short term economic policy and high budget deficits. The Euro was meant to herald a new era of fiscal responsibility, however, the actions of France, Greece and Germany have exposed this as the sham that it is. As for the UK, any idea of the Euro being introduced here is sheer lunacy. With the housing market as unstable as it is, any sudden attempt to transfer economic policy to the ECB and remove independence to set interest rates from the Bank of England would cause immediate panic amongst lenders and house owners. Maybe in fifteen or twenty years they might consider it again but right now or even in five years, impossible. [/b][/quote] Best of luck with that prediction! I'm sure the exporting Japs will be happy with an appreciating currency, just like Germany - especially when US consumers are just figuring out that they've been living in la la land. I think you and every housedebtor in the UK are in for a shock. The Square Mile banks ran a mile from the BoE in August, headed directly for Frankfurt - that's what matters to these guys. The ECB looks like the wise head in this crisis - they held firm on interest rate targets while the Fed went in to panic and the Labour government did its best to **** up any credibility that the "independent" BoE possessed. Personally, I'm ****** off that I'll be paid in sterling for the foreseeable, because it's headed the way of the dollar and price inflation is getting nasty. [/QUOTE]
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