Tri- Nations Talent - New Zealand

[TRF_stormer2010]

At NickDnz:Adam Thomson would be in with a great shout at being the fastest over 400m. He is incredibly fast for a loosie and is pretty tall so would have a longer stride than Smith - more suitable for a 400m run. Thomson is also incredibly fit. You say he lacks physicality, however he made a few strong taclkes against the boks, and was a busy ball carrier for good metres. I really don;t get the guildford hate. He is one of the quickest guys in NZ rugby, has a massive work rate and a low error rate. What isn't to like? He is real similar to Doug Howlett, but faster. What did howlett do that Guildford doesn't?

yeah, i can very much see Thomson being a great 400m sprinter which has more to do with muscle fatigue than out-and-out speed or fitness. A reasonably fit and pacey guy can do fantastic in a 400m if he can actually sprint all the way like a REAL 400m athlete does. Fitness is for joggers or rather fitness isn't the deciding factor. Most outbacks have explosive power which is great over 60m but means you're probably going to have seized up at the 300m mark in a 400m sprint.

 

[nickdnz]

Yes, he also played for a number of seasons! Howlett scored 59 tries in 108 matches (0.55 match). That gives him a slight edge on Guildford with 19 tries in 40 matches (0.48 match), but it is not that substantial at all... (if Guildford had scored 3 more tries they would have an identical ratio). If Guildford plays 108 matches he could well get close to Howlett's record. If we are talking about try scoring ratios, it would be silly not to mention Hosea Gear, who has scored 26 tries in 63 matches (0.41 tries per match)....

Guildford scored 5 tries this season (in 15 matches). He certainly didn't have a great year try scoring wise, but he did miss out on one against the Highlanders (where he probably would have been awarded a try if the ref had goon to the TMO), and he threw the last pass in at least 5 tries as well... It doesn't really matter who in the teams scores the tries, as long as they are being scored! Hosea Gear did have a better year in terms of try scoring, with 6 tries in 12 matches (only three less matches than Guildford, despite what you suggest)...

Unfortunetly Hosea Gear has only been a regular starter for both the Hurricanes and Wellington in the last 3-4 seasons. He's actually been in the Hurricanes since 2004, but was behind Lome Fa'atau and Ma'a Nonu as a regular selection on the wing. If you look at the amount of game time he has got to how many tries he has scored, I think you'd find it would be higher than Guildford's who has been a regular starter for the Crusaders in the last two seasons and for the Hurricanes the season before that.

 

[ranger]

There's a different one each year though.. unless he won it multiple times or broke records he doesn;t really standout more than any other national champ that didn't achieve anything else in sprinting.

I've watched Cody Rei a few times (for Harbour) and never seen him show pace at all really so I'll take your word for it. I am still of the mind Maitland and Guildford are the fastest two guys in pro rugby in NZ. Did you play him at school? He isn't very big so I would have to assume so given you reckon he was one of the biggest on the field?

But you seem to be assessing Howlett on two seperate scales here, on one hand you are evaluating him as a potential olympic sprinter (which he isnt) but then youre using that evidence to show that Guildford is quicker which makes no sense. Sure Howlett was national champion and theres one a year, but Guildford wasnt anywhere close to national champion! Sure Howlett only has a national ***le, but thats one more sprinting ***le that Guildford couldnt hope to attain. hes a quick winger, Howlett is a quick human being..

As for Rei, he isnt one of the guys whos raw pace translates well onto the rugby field. Hes one of those guys who slows down to read the defense (especially when playing fullback and first five) and only really hits top gear if hes well in the clear and has a fair wind-up (think Anesi). He actually came very close to breaking Anesi's sprint record at the NZ sevens camp last year speaking of.
If you want to see what Ormond can do, try and have a look at the Taranaki-Auckland game from a few days ago. He well and truely made Joe Roks his *****, beating him on the outside so often that Justin Marshall called him out as the quickest guy in the compeition (probably a spur of the moment exageration from Marshall but it goes to show he made an impact with his pace).

And yeah i played him at regional under 16 and 1st XV level. It wasn't so much height or raw size as much as how he was carrying it. As a 16 year old he was 6' and was 90-95kg. The other guys were similar weights and heights, but he was one of the only guys carrying it as ripped muscle. He would hit the line on an angle that would leave him with just an arm to deal with, which he would bust through and then pace off the cover. I think the fact that he could rely on power to bust tackles as a kid is why we see him a such a non threat from static situations now (he catches it, he shuffles left, shuffles right, runs a few metres forward and gets bought down for minimal gain). Anyway the moral of the story is that while being a truely gifted footballer, he simply doesnt seem to (in my opinion) have the kind of insane pace that Howlett, Chavanga, Ngweyna etc have. I have personally played against guys that have blown me away more than he did.

 

[Sam Owen]

Hosea Gear is my favourite Hurricane. He should be a regular in the All Blacks; he's just as fast as any of the others, he is just as robust and powerful as Rocokoko (I'd say Joe and Hosea are the most robust wingers in NZ), his skills might not be well-rounded like a Jeff Wilson but its competant enough to compete well at test level and last of all, X-factor. Like Jonah, Hosea has similar X-factor, strong and can and given the oppertunity, will.

 

[Rhyer]

The thing with Gear is he can have amazing games or just go really really quiet. From what I've seen of Guildford, he hasn't really had a bad game and gone quiet.

 

[nickdnz]

The thing with Gear is he can have amazing games or just go really really quiet. From what I've seen of Guildford, he hasn't really had a bad game and gone quiet.

...So you didn't watch the Super Rugby final, I take it.

 

[Rhyer]

...So you didn't watch the Super Rugby final, I take it.

http://www.ruggastats.com/games.aspx?G=301

Not bad, not particularly good either, 5/5 tackles made and 2 assists.

 

[nickdnz]

http://www.ruggastats.com/games.aspx?G=301

Not bad, not particularly good either, 5/5 tackles made and 2 assists.

The second highest number of errors as well. Not to mention that he would have got out paced and fended by a lock, for what should have been awarded as a try. Trust me, it was a shocker of a game if you watched it, even Zac Guildford readily admits that.

 

[Darwin]

Unfortunetly Hosea Gear has only been a regular starter for both the Hurricanes and Wellington in the last 3-4 seasons. He's actually been in the Hurricanes since 2004, but was behind Lome Fa'atau and Ma'a Nonu as a regular selection on the wing. If you look at the amount of game time he has got to how many tries he has scored, I think you'd find it would be higher than Guildford's who has been a regular starter for the Crusaders in the last two seasons and for the Hurricanes the season before that.

Hosea Gear has started 63/69 games he has played for the Canes, while Guildford has started 40/47 of his Super Rugby games. That shows that Guildford, not Gear, has started higher percentage of matches on the bench. My initial calculations only took into account the games the games that they started anyways, so it is pretty clear that Guildford is scoring more tries per gametime than Hosea Gear!

 

[Shaggy]

Reunion had a few overhead clips last night showing just how high Guildford's work rate is, and how much extra stuff he does around the park.


In his second try, he continually followed up, tracking the ball from right to left to right across the field and getting himself onto position to contribute to taking the ball forward, and then cleverly puts himself in the gap at Mils' right shoulder to receive the pass, when the easy/obvious place to be was on his left shoulder for the inside pass.


Now he was dropped from the AB's after Ted told him he needed to get his work rate up. He has done that in spades, and deserves his place in the team on merit.

Exactly, he went away and did what was asked of him, and his work rate is high - he deserved his opportunity back in the ABs

Well said. To fully appreciate players like Guildford (or Ben Smith), people really need to watch the game live at the ground, as you get a very different perspective on the game. After watching the Carisbrook test at the ground I couldn't understand why people were criticising Guildford, as he was all over the park... people watching on TV wouldn't have seen this, as you only get to see what happens close to the ball. I've heard several people claim that the tries Guildford scored v Australia could be 'scored by anyone'. I agree that the tries would have been scored by most international wings if they had put themselves in the positions Guildford did, however most international wings wouldn't have put themselves in those positions (as you nicely point out)! I often feel that people rate players based entirely on what they do with the ball in hand, ignoring the fact that 99% of the game they don't have the ball in hand; what players do in this 99% of the game can be as important (if not more important) as what they do in the 1% of the game when they have the ball in hand.

I must admit, I get frustrated with all of the close ups of the ball carriers in the tv coverage sometimes, because you don't get to see the off the ball stuff, but even so, I could see from the coverage of the Carisbrook match, that Guildford did a lot of the tidy up work when the ball got left behind from the loose passes etc, and was good in cover defense also.

People seem to get too wrapped up in a wingers attacking ability, and forget about the other aspects of play that an international winger needs to have.

As for attacking ability, do you get anymore points for scoring a try using raw pace or from breaking a tackle, than from stepping around a player, running into a gap, or setting up a try for a team mate

 

[Sam Owen]

Hosea Gear has started 63/69 games he has played for the Canes, while Guildford has started 40/47 of his Super Rugby games. That shows that Guildford, not Gear, has started higher percentage of matches on the bench. My initial calculations only took into account the games the games that they started anyways, so it is pretty clear that Guildford is scoring more tries per gametime than Hosea Gear!

Yeah Guildford to me is good but I think Hosea is better. Its no secret that Hosea was playing with an underperforming, injury prone Hurricanes backline while Zac was playing for the 'make-any-winger-look-good' Crusaders. If Hosea played for the 'Saders the stats would very possibly be the other way around and lets not forget, in Rugby stats dont always tell the full and fair story.

I'd rather tackle Guildford then Gear lol, no disrespect to Guildford, just my personal preferance if given the choice.

 

[donmcdazzle]

But you seem to be assessing Howlett on two seperate scales here, on one hand you are evaluating him as a potential olympic sprinter (which he isnt) but then youre using that evidence to show that Guildford is quicker which makes no sense. Sure Howlett was national champion and theres one a year, but Guildford wasnt anywhere close to national champion! Sure Howlett only has a national ***le, but thats one more sprinting ***le that Guildford couldnt hope to attain. hes a quick winger, Howlett is a quick human being..

As for Rei, he isnt one of the guys whos raw pace translates well onto the rugby field. Hes one of those guys who slows down to read the defense (especially when playing fullback and first five) and only really hits top gear if hes well in the clear and has a fair wind-up (think Anesi). He actually came very close to breaking Anesi's sprint record at the NZ sevens camp last year speaking of.
If you want to see what Ormond can do, try and have a look at the Taranaki-Auckland game from a few days ago. He well and truely made Joe Roks his *****, beating him on the outside so often that Justin Marshall called him out as the quickest guy in the compeition (probably a spur of the moment exageration from Marshall but it goes to show he made an impact with his pace).

And yeah i played him at regional under 16 and 1st XV level. It wasn't so much height or raw size as much as how he was carrying it. As a 16 year old he was 6' and was 90-95kg. The other guys were similar weights and heights, but he was one of the only guys carrying it as ripped muscle. He would hit the line on an angle that would leave him with just an arm to deal with, which he would bust through and then pace off the cover. I think the fact that he could rely on power to bust tackles as a kid is why we see him a such a non threat from static situations now (he catches it, he shuffles left, shuffles right, runs a few metres forward and gets bought down for minimal gain). Anyway the moral of the story is that while being a truely gifted footballer, he simply doesnt seem to (in my opinion) have the kind of insane pace that Howlett, Chavanga, Ngweyna etc have. I have personally played against guys that have blown me away more than he did.

Yeah I did go off on a tangent a bit. I guess my first post was in response to someone saying Howlett was "so much faster" and that he could've been an olympic sprinter.. both of which are false. I'm not saying Guildford is faster or anything, I'm just saying there would be no material difference. If you got Guildford, Maitland, Prime Howlett, Rei, Gear and Ormond all to do a 100m on a field you could throw a blanket over them at the end. There wouldn't be very much (I wouldn't think more than 5m or so) in it is all i'm saying.

By the way I did see that 'Naki game but wasn't listening to the commentary, Ormond is fast I remember thinking at the time their left wing was speedy.

 

[donmcdazzle]

I'd rather tackle Guildford then Gear lol, no disrespect to Guildford, just my personal preferance if given the choice.

I'm sure you'd rather tackle Gear than Sione Lauaki, but that doesn't make him a better winger. I like Gear but his workrate isn't up to it, if the ball doesn't go his way then he is never in the game. Awesome with the ball, pretty bad without it.

Not sure why I'm defending Guildford, I'd have chosen Maitland over him in the first place! I just think some criticisms are a bit rough on the guy.

 

[JW.]

I think Guildford is a great player who had a good season with the Crusaders, but when Guildfords in the starting lineup for the AB's im like 'hmm. just another decent Ab but when Gear starts i'm afraid about what he's going to do against us now, he's better at breaking tackles, creating stuff out of nothing etc. but Guildford is a better overall winger because of his defence and workrate. Question is what are the AB's going to go for? X-factor or a solid yet tryscoring player.

 

[Sam Owen]

I'm sure you'd rather tackle Gear than Sione Lauaki, but that doesn't make him a better winger.

Lauaki??...we wernt talking about him, the subject at the moment was Gear or Guildford and just Gear or Guildford.

I think Guildford is a great player who had a good season with the Crusaders, but when Guildfords in the starting lineup for the AB's im like 'hmm. just another decent Ab but when Gear starts i'm afraid about what he's going to do against us now, he's better at breaking tackles, creating stuff out of nothing etc. but Guildford is a better overall winger because of his defence and workrate. Question is what are the AB's going to go for? X-factor or a solid yet tryscoring player.

I agree with this whole post.

 

[ranger]

Hosea Gear has started 63/69 games he has played for the Canes, while Guildford has started 40/47 of his Super Rugby games. That shows that Guildford, not Gear, has started higher percentage of matches on the bench. My initial calculations only took into account the games the games that they started anyways, so it is pretty clear that Guildford is scoring more tries per gametime than Hosea Gear!

I cant beleive that statistic mate something has to be wrong there. Youre saying he has started all but 6 games? Between Fa'atau, Nonu, Paku, Ellison, David Smith, Guildford, Taylor etc there is just no way.

 

[Darwin]

I cant beleive that statistic mate something has to be wrong there. Youre saying he has started all but 6 games? Between Fa'atau, Nonu, Paku, Ellison, David Smith, Guildford, Taylor etc there is just no way.

I have no reason to believe that there is anything wrong with the stats - how many teams frequently use a specialist wing on their bench? I think it is perfectly logical that Hosea Gear would have started all but 6 of his matches. I can't find any other breakdown of Hosea Gears full career, but this site suggests 47/49 games since 2007 have been as a starting wing.....

 

[nickdnz]

The stats seem a little suspect, but I'd have to look at every game he has played to try and argue against it, so I'll take the stats as red. I guess we'll see if Hosea Gear is as good at this level as I think he is. His biggest criticism has so far been that he hasn't scored a try in the 100 minutes he has been on the field against Australia, so we'll see if he impresses on Saturday. I think everyone will admit that Gear and Guildford are two very different types of players, each with different skill sets. I think it very much depends on what you want and value from your winger.

 

[Darwin]

The stats seem a little suspect, but I'd have to look at every game he has played to try and argue against it, so I'll take the stats as red. I guess we'll see if Hosea Gear is as good at this level as I think he is. His biggest criticism has so far been that he hasn't scored a try in the 100 minutes he has been on the field against Australia, so we'll see if he impresses on Saturday. I think everyone will admit that Gear and Guildford are two very different types of players, each with different skill sets. I think it very much depends on what you want and value from your winger.

Just because the stats don't agree with your opinion doesn't make them suspect The site even has links to the team sheets for every Super Rugby game that Gear has played in, so I'd suggest they are pretty accurate.... I don't think people have criticised Gear for not scoring a try vs Australia, but rather for the fact he looked completely out of his depth... I remember Drew Mitchell being all over him in the 2008 Hong Kong match. In any case his performance (or lack there-of) against Australia about 3 years ago is largely irrelevant, as he is a much better player now. As you say, Gear will get a great chance to prove his worth vs Australia on Saturday. He will certainly be under pressure to perform, as everyone who has played on the wing for the AB's this year has excelled.

 

[TNT88]

Can't wait for this. It is a young Wallabies team vs an older ABs team. I don't know who to pick, i think it will be close.