Cardiff could and should be top 8 year on year by keeping a strong pack as you say.This is pretty bang on, Cardiff have 4 seasons straight of good starts and 9th / 10th finishes. Noone seems to understand at Cardiff that tight 5s win games, they just keep shipping them out and replacing them with kids and semi pros...
Connaught deserve to travel to Glasgow to lose in the knockouts.
As a side, odd year for the Irish teams, Ulster have gone backwards, despite an aeful and unlucky last season, as has Munster, Connaught have regrouped but Leinsters dominance has gone. Are we seeing the national team having to manage elder players more to the detriment of the clubs? Is it a bot of a lions hangover?
Leinster still dominant in Ireland despite an early loss to Munster which means that getting 4 in the top 8 would be an enormously positive reflection on the other 3. Ulster and Connacht have to ship two losses to Leinster year on year.
Connacht are looking good for next year, Ulster too and Munster have the makings of a strong team.
Leinster will be strong in a world cup year but 2027-2028 might be a reckoning of sorts for them with of few heavy weight retirements. Half back depth may be at issue also. McGrath will be a big loss at scrum half.