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War in Israel
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<blockquote data-quote="Prestwick" data-source="post: 236531"><p>The central problem here is that neither side wishes to talk. </p><p></p><p>Look at the British Government and Sinn Fein/IRA. Sunningdale in the early 1970s was a watershed in diplomacy. The fact that a terrorist organisation were given gaurantees for their safety and freedom to travel to the Home Counties of England (the provinces surrounding London) and for those gaurantees to be carried out was absolutely groundbreaking for the time. While peace wasn't agreed for another thirty odd years, it was those first steps which enabled a permenant back-channel to be opened.</p><p></p><p>These days, those same Anglo-Irish diplomats who managed to set up the Sunningdale agreements are in the Middle East and Afghanistan attempting to try and bring National governments and popular terrorist movements together at the negotiating table or at least set up a kind of discreet back-channel.</p><p></p><p>One of the major obstacles to this is the rather porus nature of Middle Eastern negotiating. The amount of leaks and private briefing that goes on is phenominal as found during Clinton's ill fated Middle Eastern Summit in 2000. Usually, any progress is scuppered when a loose mouthed Israeli cabinet minister or Fatah/Hamas senior member drops a diplomatic bombshell on an unsuspecting public in a deliberate attempt to de-rail the process. Secrecy is paramount in these initial steps but that is rarely the case.</p><p></p><p>Regardless of what Hamas is doing (and to be frank, is pretty stupid despite the horrors that the Palestinian people are going through) Israel must talk to them. They can't just ignore them, bombing and covering them in white phosphorus isn't going to make them go away as they'll simply morph into another organisation. They are the only people you can talk to in Gaza and if the West Bank follows suit in elections next year, they'll be the only people you can talk to <em>period</em> in Palestine.</p><p></p><p>Hama's political wing is pretty moderate. They know they can't destroy Israel or push them into the sea and they know that the best deal they can get is the same that was offered to Arafat in 2000 (The Gaza Strip, Eastern Jerusalem and 96% of the West Bank I believe) but they also know that they can't just go re-writing their founding charter to eliminate the "kill all jews" and "destroy Israel" policies without anything to show for it. They need something from Israel to show that what they are doing is getting results and that now is the time to talk and not to rocket or bomb.</p><p></p><p>However, currently, Hama's millitary wing has the upper hand and is controling things. This scenario will remain unless Hamas and Israel either start talking privately or officially at the table chaired by either Tony Blair or the UN. </p><p></p><p>This is similar to Northern Ireland, Sinn Fein could only show the millitant IRA members that talking could work if they got consessions from the British Government. It takes two to tango. Today, with Ulster getting more and more autonomy and with a more rational atmosphere, Sinn Fein and successive British Governments have shown that talking gets results. </p><p></p><p>Hamas and Israel should take note. </p><p></p><p>On another note, the main reason why Israeli policy tends to veer violently from left to right to left to right is down squarely to how it elects its Governments. Israeli elections use a version of Proportional Representation for electoral nerds called the D'Hondt method party list system. This basically means that there is a very very low threshold of voter representation to be triggered before your party can qualify for seats in Parliament.</p><p></p><p>This enables smaller parties with a tiny share of the vote to get into Parliament. Many of these parties tend to be far right parties which sponsor things such as the destruction of a Palestinian state, expansion of Jewish Settlements, the re-invasion of the Sinai penninsula and so on. </p><p></p><p>The D'Hondt method also garuantees a hung parliament which means that it is virtually impossible to attain enough seats to gaurantee an overall majority. This means that coalition governments are a requirement for government. Minority government, Canada style, is impossible.</p><p></p><p>Thus, you have a situation where the Right wing Likud, Left wing Labour and Centrist Kadima must seek the support of these BNP-esque or FN-esque parties in order to form a government and as part of the deal have to agree to uphold Settlements, etc. That is why you have the rather silly situation of Ehud Olmert calling Settler aggression against Palestinians a "Palestinian Pogrom" and then refusing to budge on Settlement expansion because, quite simply, his hands are tied.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Prestwick, post: 236531"] The central problem here is that neither side wishes to talk. Look at the British Government and Sinn Fein/IRA. Sunningdale in the early 1970s was a watershed in diplomacy. The fact that a terrorist organisation were given gaurantees for their safety and freedom to travel to the Home Counties of England (the provinces surrounding London) and for those gaurantees to be carried out was absolutely groundbreaking for the time. While peace wasn't agreed for another thirty odd years, it was those first steps which enabled a permenant back-channel to be opened. These days, those same Anglo-Irish diplomats who managed to set up the Sunningdale agreements are in the Middle East and Afghanistan attempting to try and bring National governments and popular terrorist movements together at the negotiating table or at least set up a kind of discreet back-channel. One of the major obstacles to this is the rather porus nature of Middle Eastern negotiating. The amount of leaks and private briefing that goes on is phenominal as found during Clinton's ill fated Middle Eastern Summit in 2000. Usually, any progress is scuppered when a loose mouthed Israeli cabinet minister or Fatah/Hamas senior member drops a diplomatic bombshell on an unsuspecting public in a deliberate attempt to de-rail the process. Secrecy is paramount in these initial steps but that is rarely the case. Regardless of what Hamas is doing (and to be frank, is pretty stupid despite the horrors that the Palestinian people are going through) Israel must talk to them. They can't just ignore them, bombing and covering them in white phosphorus isn't going to make them go away as they'll simply morph into another organisation. They are the only people you can talk to in Gaza and if the West Bank follows suit in elections next year, they'll be the only people you can talk to [i]period[/i] in Palestine. Hama's political wing is pretty moderate. They know they can't destroy Israel or push them into the sea and they know that the best deal they can get is the same that was offered to Arafat in 2000 (The Gaza Strip, Eastern Jerusalem and 96% of the West Bank I believe) but they also know that they can't just go re-writing their founding charter to eliminate the "kill all jews" and "destroy Israel" policies without anything to show for it. They need something from Israel to show that what they are doing is getting results and that now is the time to talk and not to rocket or bomb. However, currently, Hama's millitary wing has the upper hand and is controling things. This scenario will remain unless Hamas and Israel either start talking privately or officially at the table chaired by either Tony Blair or the UN. This is similar to Northern Ireland, Sinn Fein could only show the millitant IRA members that talking could work if they got consessions from the British Government. It takes two to tango. Today, with Ulster getting more and more autonomy and with a more rational atmosphere, Sinn Fein and successive British Governments have shown that talking gets results. Hamas and Israel should take note. On another note, the main reason why Israeli policy tends to veer violently from left to right to left to right is down squarely to how it elects its Governments. Israeli elections use a version of Proportional Representation for electoral nerds called the D'Hondt method party list system. This basically means that there is a very very low threshold of voter representation to be triggered before your party can qualify for seats in Parliament. This enables smaller parties with a tiny share of the vote to get into Parliament. Many of these parties tend to be far right parties which sponsor things such as the destruction of a Palestinian state, expansion of Jewish Settlements, the re-invasion of the Sinai penninsula and so on. The D'Hondt method also garuantees a hung parliament which means that it is virtually impossible to attain enough seats to gaurantee an overall majority. This means that coalition governments are a requirement for government. Minority government, Canada style, is impossible. Thus, you have a situation where the Right wing Likud, Left wing Labour and Centrist Kadima must seek the support of these BNP-esque or FN-esque parties in order to form a government and as part of the deal have to agree to uphold Settlements, etc. That is why you have the rather silly situation of Ehud Olmert calling Settler aggression against Palestinians a "Palestinian Pogrom" and then refusing to budge on Settlement expansion because, quite simply, his hands are tied. [/QUOTE]
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