Leicester ---------> Dublin.
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- Thread starter Draggs
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Tigs we all know you haven't been able to pitch a tent since Lewis Moody retired.
So Ireland won't be playing hard ball then? And I doubt exporters in France and Holland will be wanting Brussels to take a hard line either. How do we need EU trade more? We export to more people than the EU and now we are not restricted by EU regulations on exporting outside the EU that currently has 1.9 trillion in unsecured debt. Face it the Mediterranean Euro zone is a mess Ireland is hardly any better and eastern Europe have seen it's best and brightest leave for better jobs in the UK and Germany. The EU and the Euro is far more at risk than the UK or the pound.
Funnily enough I am actually stuck in Canterbury, Kent. Which has seen since the EU referendum a 20% decrease in tourism and a 60% increase in racial abuse attacks.
Kent? Oh well never mind at least the Ale is nice
TBH what is Canterbury famous for anyway? Never even heard of it except for it's rugby team the crusaders.
My doctor told me it is very common for that sort of thing to happen to 20 year olds.
Both sides of Labour are being so juvenile.
On the coup's side: The coup is struggling because they have to remove Corbyn against the will of their members and the wider left-wing section of the country. But in doing so, they are alienating the people that they require for Labour to be successful: canvassers, members, unions, students, the broad left-wing etc. Whilst Corbyn isn't popular amongst centrists, dumping him unceremoniously alienates a big proportion of people who will put in the hours and money to fund a Labour electoral campaign. Even if they win and Corbyn leaves, they inherit a divided party, trading one set of unelectability problems for another. It's no kind of win. Attempting an unpopular coup will never work.
But what gets me is how totally unnecessary it was. It always looked like there were two scenarios following Brexit: a late-16/early-17 election, or a 2020 election. If there's a 2016 or 2017 election, Labour are in no state to win it, Corbyn or no Corbyn. If there's a 2020 election, then they could have timed this coup a lot better. There have been a great deal of MPs saying that Corbyn has done well on positioning the party politically and economically. If that's so, go out and work with Corbyn to stick it to the Tories for the next year, make Labour respected again. See what happens in the next council elections. If there's a Labour wipeout, then is the time to get the coup going.
On Corbyn's side: This could have been easily resolved if Corbyn was willing to step down as part of negotiations, with another left-winger coming in.
Even aside from electoral mathematics, Corbyn would retain most of the activists and membership (and as a result, a good proportion of the canvassers), most of the unions, the name and the backing of at least the Mirror, possibly the Independent these days and Owen Jones. Obviously, Corbyn's side will take enough damage to not be able to win elections.
The way I see it happening is as a giant electoral pact, where Greens/Labour/Lib Dems/Plaid all agree not to stand against one another in various constituencies, they bring in PR (and make the Lords elected) as a grand coalition, and then Labour splits. Although it would be less of a split, and more that a new party (Momentum?) would pop up and hoover up the Labour left vote.
On the coup's side: The coup is struggling because they have to remove Corbyn against the will of their members and the wider left-wing section of the country. But in doing so, they are alienating the people that they require for Labour to be successful: canvassers, members, unions, students, the broad left-wing etc. Whilst Corbyn isn't popular amongst centrists, dumping him unceremoniously alienates a big proportion of people who will put in the hours and money to fund a Labour electoral campaign. Even if they win and Corbyn leaves, they inherit a divided party, trading one set of unelectability problems for another. It's no kind of win. Attempting an unpopular coup will never work.
But what gets me is how totally unnecessary it was. It always looked like there were two scenarios following Brexit: a late-16/early-17 election, or a 2020 election. If there's a 2016 or 2017 election, Labour are in no state to win it, Corbyn or no Corbyn. If there's a 2020 election, then they could have timed this coup a lot better. There have been a great deal of MPs saying that Corbyn has done well on positioning the party politically and economically. If that's so, go out and work with Corbyn to stick it to the Tories for the next year, make Labour respected again. See what happens in the next council elections. If there's a Labour wipeout, then is the time to get the coup going.
On Corbyn's side: This could have been easily resolved if Corbyn was willing to step down as part of negotiations, with another left-winger coming in.
I doubt that it could feasibly happen. The breakaway party would form the official opposition in the rest of this Parliament, but it would result in the mutually assured destruction of both sides of Labour in the next election.
Even aside from electoral mathematics, Corbyn would retain most of the activists and membership (and as a result, a good proportion of the canvassers), most of the unions, the name and the backing of at least the Mirror, possibly the Independent these days and Owen Jones. Obviously, Corbyn's side will take enough damage to not be able to win elections.
The way I see it happening is as a giant electoral pact, where Greens/Labour/Lib Dems/Plaid all agree not to stand against one another in various constituencies, they bring in PR (and make the Lords elected) as a grand coalition, and then Labour splits. Although it would be less of a split, and more that a new party (Momentum?) would pop up and hoover up the Labour left vote.
I mean, we haven't actually left the EU yet.
I believe most short term predictions usually involves article 50 being invoked which Cameron said he'd do on day 1 of the EU vote. But mainly it involved shocks but the numbers were about right. The mini recovery can mainly be attributed to article 50 not actually being invoked and less panic. Which is pretty much why the government want to start negotiations before invoking so we haven't put a gun to our head and pulled the trigger. It creates a more stable situation. The problem is it creates longer term uncertainty for a slower economy. Which is why the EU wishes wed just do it as shocks are less likely to effect them in the same way but l9ng term economic uncertainty will.
It takes 6 months to know whether we're in ression or not because it's based on two adjacent quarters of a shrinking economy It may even be a year before that readily becomes apparent as economies don't change rapidly.
The only good thing is stabilisation but the markets will likely react badly again once the next stages and detail happen.
At that pretty much covers all my knowledge economics partially wish I'd studied it at one stage but then there are a ton of subjects I wish I had more than passing understanding.
Corbyn is a busted flush, people may agree with him and that's why they support him but he's no leader, never has been never will be.
We are leaving though it's probably better you get used to the idea
Our economy is thriving right now..... We've outperformed the E.U average growth for the last 3 years, and guess who is the fastest growing economy in Europe this year. Us. Speaking of debt your household debt is absolutely soaring this year. It's not good news at all. Yes you're not restricted to trading with others but you're essentially looking to leave the E.U market only to join again without paying your dues not just economically, but also socially etc. We don't trade freely with the U.S or Japan so why should we do it with the U.K. The best and brightest are leaving for Germany and the U.K? You need only look at a country like Estonia to see how that part of the world has transformed in recent years. Is the sitution ideal in Eastern Europe? Are there stragglers? Of course! Some of those economies were run into the ground during the Soviet era, but across the board these countries have improved in the E.U. That does not mean incorporation of new states should be done without thought of course.
And to address your initial and I think most important question, no. Of course Ireland won't want to play hard ball. I'm not talking here at you from some sort of "fukin Brits, screw em" mentality here. I don't want any of these things to happen. I want Ireland, Britain and Europe as a whole to have the optimum outcome from this Brexit, whether it be backtracking on the decision, or failing that making the best of it. I think Brexit was a horrible decision but if it must happen I pray good deals are struck. Ireland will absolutely cry for free trade to be a constant between us, but we are not big players in Europe. We're small fry, and us breaking ranks will be no skin off E.U noses. The U.K needs to perform way beyond projections to vindicate this decision. I hope they haven't cut off their noses to spite their faces.
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There's bigger news anyway boys http://metro.co.uk/2016/07/13/there...t-as-he-starts-new-life-as-first-man-6005294/
Found that oddly funny.
You missed my point. You said there hasn't been much fallout other than the parties. But we are still in the EU, so I'm not sure anyone predicted that there would be sizeable immediate fallout?
There's certainly some harm at the minute, in the markets, loss of triple A credit rating, and in the hiring outlook for some businesses, but I never expected to see the full brunt of the harm until we actually left.
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Well I have not seen any racist attacks myself but I understand many of my eastern European co workers are worried about what will happen post Brexit. I did discuss with my wife about getting Polish passports for the kids so when she visits her parents she won't end up going into a different queue at Wrocrow airport but I suppose the point I was making was that on the Monday after the vote every remainer on here (the majority on here) were citing the lowest value of the pound in 35 years the billions wiped off the stock market etc as the impending doom that was brexit when really it just a reaction. We will continue to trade with the EU they won't want to lose our custom. The Irish in particular seem very condescending about our vote to leave when deep down they know they rely on us for trade more than anyone else in the EU so they are hardly going to push Brussels to exclude us. The Eu and the Euro is a mess I think they need the UK economy probably more than it needs the economy of 20 of its member states a deal will be made to suit everyone.
Where on earth are you getting that from mate. The response here in Ireland from politicians has been entirely cautious and worried. The dogs in the streets are fully aware of how much we need Britain and literally no on has pushed to have them excluded. Literally no one. Unless you've been gauging the opinion of Irish people from Facebook comments (which judging by the German papers I follow on FB are still fairly mild. They're really mocking poor old Boris rn), I have no idea how you came to that conclusion because it couldn't be further from the truth.
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Please read some of your replies to me in the last few hours
And I was taking about the response on here
Really? You made some categorically false claims on our economy which I did not appreciate and protested against, and I may have thrown in the odd boner joke but I think I've tried to argue economic opinion here. I genuinely do respect that you have an opinion which you voted on and are willing to back up on a public forum where said opinion is pretty unpopular. If I was rude to you in any way I didn't mean to be. I don't have any ill will toward people who voted to leave, bar the racist ***** who I know you condemn categorically too.
Everything I've said above is what I think is genuinely will happen and regardless we're in this together to some extent.
Not how it will work. We will trade, we will just do it with trade tariffs, which means our trade will be weakened with the EU.
The idea we could have limits on EU migration and get to stay in the single-market is bonkers. It implies that the EU will give preferential treatment to the UK over its own member states. It's a complete non-starter.
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I bet it would be a tight decision if we were given the chance to vote to leave the EU. Personally I think its going to fall apart anyway because its rotten to the core. All the politicians are pro EU because they're guaranteed a cushy job in Brussels "working" in one of the countless EU palaces.
The markets initial reaction to the Leave vote (Why the hell did Brexit get in our lexicon....it's ****e we even have a ministry for it now...) is a pretty good indication of how they feel it's going to go down and they'll react more as other events happen. As noted the pound is still stubbornly low and not really recovering if this was a blip it would be on its way up in a meaningful manner. Some business' have seen their share prices dramatically fall over this. The idea everything is fine now is false were just no longer seeing massive losses on a daily basis which is a good thing otherwise we really would be utterly screwed by now.
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Love the Mirror's headline this morning on Boris, accompanied by the pic of him stuck on the zip wire:
Dear World.....
......Sorry.
Dear World.....
......Sorry.
Being reported Hunt will keep his job....how?
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