The Aussies have been wrongly written off here IMO. No doubt on paper the Lions look like they should win, but it's far from certain.
If I was to make the case for an Australia win:
- Australia showing signs of being on the upgrade and this Lions tour a real ground marker two years out from a home RWC. May have a potential world class/superstar 12 on their hands in Jo Suaalii which are few and far between.
- Australia went to Twickenham and beat what is, despite criticism of their Head Coach, a pretty tough side to beat and had a poor record against in recent years.
- Australia played very well in Dublin, on paper the toughest leg of their tour, and had Ireland in trouble for a lot of it.
- Ireland - the standout Lions nation of the last 4 years- is probably slightly below the level they got to in the cycle leading up to and in the 2023 RWC (that's not being disrespectful, but rather instead acknowledging they were quite possibly the best side in the world for some of that time- and they probably haven't quite been their best post RWC). Much of this Lions squad will be reliant upon some of that Irish core, so if they are for any reason below par, that brings Australia into it.
- Lions to me look like they haven't quite nailed down their key partnerships in midfield or back row, and that's where I believe Australia will be a handful. That is exacerbated further with the injury to Gary Ringrose, who looked a certainty at outside centre.
So that's what I'd be hanging onto if I was in Gold and Green.
There is of course the flip side! And as a Lions fan I hope we click and perform really well and do the job. I just can help but think it could be a bit of a tight scrap in the opener!