[2018 November Tests] France vs South Africa (10/11/18)

[FrenchFan]

OK fair enough, so despite the incompetence of the union, do you think that the best possible French players will be running out at the Stade de France on Saturday? if yes does the unions bad management make the "good" french players performs as a second tier team?

No. Brunel's picked a pack of plodders. And Bastareaud Guirado etc are not the best.
https://www.therugbyforum.com/threa...elf-out-of-his-test-career.42048/#post-918167

 

[SomeOke]

Looks like the weather is going to be moderate to bad - we might not have rain during the game but it's certainly going to rain a bit during the game. Agaisnt England I would say that favoured them but agaisnt France I'm not sure, may even favour us.

I expect selections to be fairly obvious, Willie, Faf and probably Mostert in. We could see Flouw but it will be hard to fit him in. Otherwise the obvious changes.

 

[Oliver Madden]

I think this is a big game for the Springboks. they wouldn't want to lose with a full strength team against a developing French side. not entirely sure it will be a game of great beauty but SA will win it pretty comfortably I would say. maybe predicting 38-15 was a bit premature but I'd be surprised if they won by less than 10 points.

 

[TRF_heineken]

French team has been announced and added to the OP. I will add the bok team as soon as they are announced.

 

[George Ford]

This is actually France's 1st test since the ABs game, when they lost 49-14.

I hope our Boks give them a hard hiding, with no remorse.

 

[SomeOke]

This is certainly a must win, I could argue that all of our fixtures are must wins from here on but this might just be our easiest one, just going purely by 6 Nations standings for this year.

 

[unrated]

so Esterhuizen drops out of the 23 in favour of Kolbe.

 

[ncurd]

so Esterhuizen drops out of the 23.

Didn't learn the new tackle technique.

 

[TRF_heineken]

so Esterhuizen drops out of the 23 in favour of Kolbe.

Yup, but that's not the only change though. I've added the team to the OP. Rassie brought in 6 guys who were unavailable last week: Faf De Klerk, Willie Le Roux, Francois Louw, Vincent Koch, Cheslin Kolbe and Franco Mostert

 

[SomeOke]

Can any English fan tell me if Koch starts for Saracens and if he does how he has been playing?

 

[TRF_heineken]

Can any English fan tell me if Koch starts for Saracens and if he does how he has been playing?

Well according to ESPN Scrum he's played 30 matches so far for Saracens of which he started 21 and benched 9. Seems like he's being used often. He has also scored 3 tries for them.

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

Basteraud had one good game in June. France will need the same to stand much chance (though Teddy will probably sneak a try out of nowhere). Interested to see how Serin & Lopez do at halfback but otherwise this fixture isn't calling me!

 

[mdaclarke]

Basteraud had one good game in June. France will need the same to stand much chance (though Teddy will probably sneak a try out of nowhere). Interested to see how Serin & Lopez do at halfback but otherwise this fixture isn't calling me!

Basteraud is the most overrated player I have ever seen. Not sure I have ever seen him have a good game. He is a very poor man's Andre Esterhuizen

 

[Umaga's Witness]

And its a typical 'new captain' mistake. You need a converted try strike rate from the corner of better than 33% to beat a 77% kicker in terms of points (numbers may be a bit wonky). I'd be surprised if any team manages it, kicking to the corner in test match rugby is foolish.

I think scrums may have been equally stupid.

Hopefully Siya will learn but its important he does, Robshaw didn't and we ended up going out at the group stages of a home world cup because of it.

hmmm,well, if you have a 50 percent kicker like the all blacks you only need a 25 percent strike rate for the try.
Sounds about right.

But I do think there is validity going for the try; to make the most of territory, to get maximum points compared to the 3 your opposition might be getting with their share of opportunities, to deal a psychological blow, to gain a buffer over your opposition, to catch up when you are far behind, to give your team confidence, to maintain territory and possession in order to frustrate the opposition, etc. I don’t think you should follow a rule, you should just judge what is right at the time.

 

[SomeOke]

But I do think there is validity going for the try; to make the most of territory, to get maximum points compared to the 3 your opposition might be getting with their share of opportunities, to deal a psychological blow, to gain a buffer over your opposition, to catch up when you are far behind, to give your team confidence, to maintain territory and possession in order to frustrate the opposition, etc. I don’t think you should follow a rule, you should just judge what is right at the time.

I definitely think there is some truth to this, a successful three pointer just means a set piece for the opposition in your half in all likelihood, whereas a failed try most likely won't release any pressure as you'll still maintain territory if they kick for touch off the turnover.

 

[Umaga's Witness]

I definitely think there is some truth to this, a successful three pointer just means a set piece for the opposition in your half in all likelihood, whereas a failed try most likely won't release any pressure as you'll still maintain territory if they kick for touch off the turnover.

You have articulated well my main point. This is especially valid in a game where there are loads of penalties and you don’t seem to have any control over giving them away. In such cases if both teams just take the 3 it becomes more about luck and who has the best kicker. Going for the try gives you back control over your destiny.
What’s really annoying is when the game is around the 75 minute mark and a team gets a penalty, giving them an opportunity to take the lead or extend to a 4 to 6 point buffer. They take the kick, succeed, then for the rest of the game the opposition has the ball, winning it at the end giving no opportunity for a come back , whereas if you’d only gone for the try you would either have succeeded or you would have run the clock down trying and likely got another opportunity for three anyway

 

[ncurd]

hmmm,well, if you have a 50 percent kicker like the all blacks you only need a 25 percent strike rate for the try.
Sounds about right.

But I do think there is validity going for the try; to make the most of territory, to get maximum points compared to the 3 your opposition might be getting with their share of opportunities, to deal a psychological blow, to gain a buffer over your opposition, to catch up when you are far behind, to give your team confidence, to maintain territory and possession in order to frustrate the opposition, etc. I don’t think you should follow a rule, you should just judge what is right at the time.

...trying to remember how I calculated this....actually a 50% kicker only requires a 22% strike rate....roughly I'm not going to say this is precise because I could be Mathing wrong.

There are situations where I agree the jugular is important, it was not the case here. I come from the Wilko school of take the damn points scoreboard pressure is the best kind of pressure once you have a 7 point cushion you can think about it but being ahead is always the most important thing work hard to get beyond a score in difference then turn the screws. Otherwise your gambling with your lead and it could turn.

 

[SomeOke]

@ncurd , but... tries are fun.

 

[ncurd]

@ncurd , but... tries are fun.

Winning is better!

 

[SomeOke]

Winning is better!

Where's the Triggerwarning .

 

[unrated]

The Springboks has to win this one for the fans, not because we lost the last game. Not because we have been performing poorly the last few years, or because this might be one of the easiest games on the tour.

But rather! to get revenge over the French victory over us off the pitch when the world cup was unfairly given to them for the second time in four editions.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

The Springboks has to win this one for the fans, not because we lost the last game. Not because we have been performing poorly the last few years, or because this might be one of the easiest games on the tour.

But rather! to get revenge over the French victory over us off the pitch when the world cup was unfairly given to them for the second time in four editions.

Revenge for France offering more money than Ireland and SA and certain other Unions taking the bait and voting for them because they would get a bigger slice of the pie?

 

[unrated]

Revenge for France offering more money than Ireland and SA and certain other Unions taking the bait and voting for them because they would get a bigger slice of the pie?

Exactly!

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Exactly!

Thought as an SA fan you would be pleased the RWC went to France - they didn’t do too badly back in 2007. Still whatever makes you feel better in the short term about losing the 2023 bid, which was more to do with France being able to offer the other Unions financial security over the SA’s bid, which was preferred by World Rugby.

Unless the process becomes more transparent when it comes to voting or World rugby forces the council/other voting unions to accept their recommendation, it looks like countries bidding for future RWCs will have to look how much they can offer financially first and then stadia/infrastructure. I read France promising a £350m surplus compared to SA’s £270m for 2023. The problem is WR’s fianances being too tied to how profitable the RWC is means a future successful SA bid will be strongly dependent on being to offer more than a richer competitor.

https://www.ft.com/content/7281f00a-cd23-11e7-b781-794ce08b24dc

 

[SomeOke]

Down with the bourgeoisie capitalist swines, the proles will rise up!

 

[BokkenGreg]

I see what you did there!
View attachment 6927

Don't focus on these results like I told my French friends not to say they are playing the team who beat the terrible AB in New-Zealand. The problem on last week for the Boks was not the English team nor the referee, but the Boks themselves. For tonight let's hope they'll play seriously, we're not the second best team in the world anymore, to win our tests, let's begin by playing them none is won before played.

So happy that the AB punished England this afternoon exactly as England won South Africa last week, 1 point, 1 arbitral decision XD

 

[unrated]

Don't focus on these results like I told my French friends not to say they are playing the team who beat the terrible AB in New-Zealand. The problem on last week for the Boks was not the English team nor the referee, but the Boks themselves. For tonight let's hope they'll play seriously, we're not the second best team in the world anymore, to win our tests, let's begin by playing them none is won before played.

So happy that the AB punished England this afternoon exactly as England won South Africa last week, 1 point, 1 arbitral decision XD

Yea i was glad England lost in the same way as us. Now they feel the pain we felt due to Underhills disallowed try, its the same kind of pain as the Farrel tackle. If there was a thing such as Karma this would be it.

Any case, i wasn't focusing on the result, was just replying to someone who made a prediction very similar to the results of their tour to South Africa.

Nonetheless i think we will beat them comfortably and if not we have to start questioning ourselves about whether the Springboks has in fact experienced a resurgence in recent times.

And dont just think because we beat the All Blacks in Wellington that they were terrible, teams tend to look terrible (Making mistakes, knock ons,) when faced with good defensive pressure and a dominant forward pack.

 

[BokkenGreg]

We can quite be anxious during that first half, only one team playing on the field when our boys produce nothing except indiscipline. Let's hope for some quick change in our spirit.

"It is 11 at night on Saturday in South Africa, and if we continue to play like that not so much people will continue to watch the game" J. de Villiers

 

[User1245]

Mbonambi take a bow. Needed nerves of steel with some real high pressure throw ins.

 

[unrated]

Wow that was close! thought we might just have lost it at the end, but some good work by Francois Louw and with the help of some last minute nerves from the French side we could get a tense victory.
Well done to the French though this team was much better than i though. Credit to them they could have easily won this game