hmmm,well, if you have a 50 percent kicker like the all blacks you only need a 25 percent strike rate for the try.
Sounds about right.
But I do think there is validity going for the try; to make the most of territory, to get maximum points compared to the 3 your opposition might be getting with their share of opportunities, to deal a psychological blow, to gain a buffer over your opposition, to catch up when you are far behind, to give your team confidence, to maintain territory and possession in order to frustrate the opposition, etc. I don’t think you should follow a rule, you should just judge what is right at the time.