A Political Thread

[ncurd]

I agree in part to economic model you can't just borrow willy nilly, although economists would point to austerity doesn't work and you generally have to borrow some. We are still in a deficit.

However you failed completely to suggest the other way of raising funds and that is raising taxes. Why can't we raise those especially on those who can afford it? I know I could.

Educations and the NHS in particular are being badly underfunded at the moment (police isn't much better) and whilst yes you have to pay for that the long term issues we have from those from being underfunded will likely have a worse economic impact that potentially the amount we need to borrow.



As trust in Boris why believe that? He was an awful London mayor, foreign secretary and his lies and transgressions are numerous. It might be 'an act' but why would the 'true Boris' rear his head now.

 

[die_mole]

Everyone knows a guy who's friends and family say he's really a nice guy but every time you hang out with him he's a complete dick. I don't get why people take boris's inner circle at their word and completely disregard everything he's done.

 

[Reiser99]

Everyone knows a guy who's friends and family say he's really a nice guy but every time you hang out with him he's a complete dick. I don't get why people take boris's inner circle at their word and completely disregard everything he's done.

Simply more and more people are happy to be outright lied to if it fits their narrative and then accept the scapegoating when it doesn't work out that way. I'm not sure why, but it's extremely worrying.

 

[Which Tyler]

Just cause it's got very hostile on here over the past couple days ima put out my very boiled down but genuine personal political philosophy and then why this is the best thing that could have happened (I can feel Tyler and Olly getting ****** off already haha).

Ok, so the reason that I believe in the Tory economic model is that it regards long term prosperity as more important than short terms injections of cash. If we spend out with our means and borrow and saddle ourselves in debt, then whilst we may be able to help some people today, that's not something that you can do forever and longer term it means 1 thing... Austerity. Which nobody wants. It hurts people. But sometimes it is unavoidable.

If we can protect our economy and that protection not just the next 5 years but the next 50, then that it's what we should do.

Anything less than that is, I believe, fundamentally selfish. People will always be in need of help and we should try and offer that not just for ourselves, but our children and grandchildren.

So onto why today is such a good result for the country.

Very simply, as the rumours are suggesting, the ERG will hopefully now fade into non existentence as they no longer have the power to bring down a government.

As someone who lived in Brussels amongst the power brokers of the EU and extended family of the Cameron's and johnsons, I can tell you that every single one of them would vouch for Boris being a centrist and that he is just playing a character to appease those who were in control of the party.
A large majority means that is finished and he will now hopefully shift the party towards the centre once again, which, combined with a labour leadership with half a brain who realise that corbynism doesn't work and also shift towards the centre, can only be good for everyone.

As with Olyy - I disagree, but fully respect an actual thought-out position.

 

[General Melchett]

It is truly amazing how the Tories managed to create a narrative of 'Parliament is stuck' and 'Parliament is to blame' which was bought by so many and completely deflects all blame for the so called three years of dither and delay which was ultimately caused by the Tories themselves for choosing May as the person to deliver Brexit. They got this badly wrong and should have chosen someone from Vote Leave to deliver Brexit while they had their initial majority.

What have we learned from today's result? An election win can be engineered as long as:

1. You have most of the media/press on side.
2. You have someone calculating and cunning like Cummings who can outfox a poorly organised opposition
3. Your main competitor is led by a total an utter baffoon who most people just can't bring themselves to vote for.
4. Most of the electorate are uninformed or a bit stupid.

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

I don't understand the idea that the Tories are the party of economic prudence and business. Various statistical analyses have shown that is the exact opposite of the truth. On average the economy has grown less, deficits has grown more, incomes have grown less, inequality has grown more and employment has been less under Tory governments than under Labour. Everything points to them repeatedly mismanaging the economy by their willingness to tank the economy as a whole as long as a small segment of it benefits. Austerity is a fine example of this, the economy did not repair itself and it has not achieved its aims of getting rid of the deficit yet it has decimated public services.

History has shown that every time public services are sold off, they have been intentionally underfunded by the government until they break, the breaking is blamed on an inherent flaw with public ownership and then they are sold off, nearly always to people whose special interests align with the government that destroyed and sold the services in the first place. They are also always sold well below the market rate.

What's happening now with the NHS? Following exactly the same trend. Being woefully underfunded, constantly being accused of just having loads of managers and being highly inefficient (clue, as with most things by the right, this is a complete lie and the opposite is true). Anyone really think after a decade of systematically bringing the NHS to its knees the Tories are really going to reverse it? Nope, they are going to start selling parts of it off. These new hospitals that are promised but not going to be built (another lie), I wonder how many will suddenly have new arrangements to be great new, efficient private partnerships. Regardless of if they work or not, the propaganda machine will go into overdrive presenting them as great successes and attempt to roll it out across the country. Disagree? See the school academy system. EXACTLY that has already been done. Watch this space, this is what they are lining up to do.

Take the rail system. People love to say it was a failure when nationalised but studies show it was actually pretty efficient until the government got it into their head that it was bad and systematically tore it to pieces. This is always used as an example of public ownership failure yet at this same time our car, rail, ship and aircraft industries also collapsed yet why aren't they held up as a failure of private ownership at the same time? Well easy, blame the unions and again no blame falls with right wing economics.

So we always compare modern "private" ownership to a scenario decades ago but don't compare it to something that would make more sense, like modern public ownership in other countries. Many countries have nationalised infrastructure and it very clearly is nothing like the failure those on the right like to portray it. This also of course ignores the biggest joke in the whole system that the majority of the rail system is taxpayer funded anyway but the profits are all funneled into the franchises, who frequently fail to live up to their end of the contract yet pocket the money anyway. Numerous rail franchises then fell back into public hands and were managed better than under a franchise but they still get sold off and fail AGAIN. Then look at our utilities. "Private" ownership my arse. The companies that run our private infrastructure are often state owned but by a different country. Our utilities are publicly owned but not by the British public.

Many other countries recognise this farce and so cut out the wasteful middle man but here as soon as you propose that you get screams of Socialism and claims it will never work, despite abundant evidence to the contrary.

Overall I'm tired of the constant stream of lies that have come out of the Tories and yet it's still lapped up. We know Johnson has a history of lying yet somehow people think he is being honest now? Why? Serious question, what reason does anyone who voted Tory have for thinking Johnson can be trusted? How can the numerous cases of his lying a deceit and his shying away from accountability on the campaign trail mean nothing to you? Do any of your seriously believe he is Prime Ministerial material and that he isn't going to be yet another laughing stock on the world stage along with Trump? I really do wonder...

I think we need to properly challenge the heavy misinformation that exists in this country coming predominantly from the right where the damage of a lie to the opponent is less than the damage to the liar, even after shown to be lying. We need to move away from the fawning following of the American trickle down economic model (which has been shown to be a load of nonsense).

Unfortunately Corbyn, Lucas, Swinson etc all lack the gravitas and charisma to force the political stance away from the right and lack the ability to gain support from people beyond their base. This is a major failing of the left they are never addressing.

Well that was longer than I thought it would be when I started... I might write a book.

 

[ncurd]

2. You have someone calculating and cunning like Cummings who can outfox a poorly organised opposition

I would argue that Cummings is not calculated and cunning but was up against Bauldrick in terms of tactical planning and nuance.

Watching Master of the Dark Arts Alistair Campbell this election was interesting you can probably find some picture of him slowly loosing the will to live....

 

[General Melchett]

I would argue that Cummings is not calculated and cunning but was up against Bauldrick in terms of tactical planning and nuance.

I don't like him any more than you do but he can only beat what's in front of him. I don't think anyone can deny that he is effective at what he does. He masterminded Vote Leave winning against the odds and has bagged a pretty impressive result today. That said I really hope the day comes when he gets a taste of his own medicine.

The northern thickies who switched from Labour to the Tories because of the 'Get Brexit done' rhetoric are in line for years of hardship and will only have themselves blame.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

All 17 MPs who changed parties during the last Parliament, including Dominic Grieve, Chuka Umunna, Luciana Berger and Anna Soubry, lost their seats.

Reminds of my old A-levels Politics tutor who kept banging on about Benjamin Disraeli's quote:

"Damn your principles! Stick to your party."

Still rings true today as it ever did. MPs are nothing without the party machine behind them. Independent or switching sides is virtual political suicide.

 

[Brigantine]

Everyone knows the seat totals and UK-wide vote share results already, but I wanted to compare the results to the polling and projections, which were GB-wide.

I also want to point out that, in the same way that Leave is only winning because of first-past-the-post, Nationalism is also only winning because of first-past-the-post and doesn't have more votes than Unionism. (Until Scottish Labour endorses independence at least)

GB-wide vote share:

44.7% (+1.2) Conservative
2.1% (+0.2) Brexit & UKIP

46.8% (+1.4) Total Leave

32.9% (-8.1) Labour (incl speaker)
11.8% (+4.2) Liberal Democrats
4.0% (+0.9) SNP
2.8% (+1.1) Green
0.5% (-) Plaid Cymru

52.0% (-1.9) Total Remain <<<<<<<<<<<<<<

Scotland vote share:

45.0% (+8.1) SNP
1.0% (+0.8) Green

46.0% (+8.9) Total Nationalist

25.1% (-3.5) Conservative
18.6% (-8.5) Labour (they're unionist right?)
9.5% (+2.8) Liberal Democrats
0.6% (+0.4) Brexit & UKIP

53.8% (-8.8) Total Unionist <<<<<<<<<<<<<<

Northern Ireland vote share:

22.8% (-6.7) Sinn Fein
14.9% (+3.1) SDLP
1.2% (+1.2) Aontú

38.9% (-2.4) Total Nationalist

30.6% (-5.4) DUP
11.7% (+1.4) UUP
0.7% (+0.2) Conservative
N/A (-0.4%) TUV
N/A (-2.0) Sylvia Hermon

43.0% (-6.2) Total Unionist <<<<<<<<<<<<<<

16.8% (+8.8) Alliance
0.2 (-0.7) Green

 

[Muse_Cubed]

Well that was longer than I thought it would be when I started... I might write a book.

I'd love to join you in that. The main ideologies driving this are so pervasive...I get so sick with clients who parrot the "government is always inefficient, private sector is inherently efficient" ********, especially when things are de facto monopolies. Also, having spent this year in Australia's infrastructure sector, holy **** there's quasi-corruption everywhere at the public/private intersection. I can't believe how brazen it is.

The other big big issue is the myth that government finances operate like a household's. This is categorically untrue, and public debt isn't this catastrophic issue unless the government has taken money from a foreign source. Taking Australia as an example again, the government has been obsessed with operating a surplus...the thing that's kept the economy going in that time is the MASSIVE HOUSEHOLD DEBT (which is something like 190% of household income). It's got to the point that people are saving their tax cuts and the gov are bamboozled that the economy is slowing down, and yet they still refuse to implement fiscal policy. It's so asinine.

 

[Reiser99]

Everyone knows the seat totals and UK-wide vote share results already, but I wanted to compare the results to the polling and projections, which were GB-wide.

I also want to point out that, in the same way that Leave is only winning because of first-past-the-post, Nationalism is also only winning because of first-past-the-post and doesn't have more votes than Unionism. (Until Scottish Labour endorses independence at least)

GB-wide vote share:

44.7% (+1.2) Conservative
2.1% (+0.2) Brexit & UKIP

46.8% (+1.4) Total Leave

32.9% (-8.1) Labour (incl speaker)
11.8% (+4.2) Liberal Democrats
4.0% (+0.9) SNP
2.8% (+1.1) Green
0.5% (-) Plaid Cymru

52.0% (-1.9) Total Remain <<<<<<<<<<<<<<

Scotland vote share:

45.0% (+8.1) SNP
1.0% (+0.8) Green

46.0% (+8.9) Total Nationalist

25.1% (-3.5) Conservative
18.6% (-8.5) Labour (they're unionist right?)
9.5% (+2.8) Liberal Democrats
0.6% (+0.4) Brexit & UKIP

53.8% (-8.8) Total Unionist <<<<<<<<<<<<<<

Northern Ireland vote share:

22.8% (-6.7) Sinn Fein
14.9% (+3.1) SDLP
1.2% (+1.2) Aontú

38.9% (-2.4) Total Nationalist

30.6% (-5.4) DUP
11.7% (+1.4) UUP
0.7% (+0.2) Conservative
N/A (-0.4%) TUV
N/A (-2.0) Sylvia Hermon

43.0% (-6.2) Total Unionist <<<<<<<<<<<<<<

16.8% (+8.8) Alliance
0.2 (-0.7) Green

While these numbers highlight how flawed the system is, in reality the Brexit argument is over. The conservatives now have the MPs for their deal. The big question is what happens after the transition period at the end of next year, because that's all this is. Remain as an option is politically dead I think.

For me personally I'd love to try and help out at getting electoral reform, but the unfortunately it seems Farage is going to lead that charge and I just couldn't bring myself to vote for him. On top my girlfriend would instantly break up with me.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

38.9% (-2.4) Total Nationalist

30.6% (-5.4) DUP
11.7% (+1.4) UUP
0.7% (+0.2) Conservative
N/A (-0.4%) TUV
N/A (-2.0) Sylvia Hermon

43.0% (-6.2) Total Unionist <<<<<<<<<<<<<<

16.8% (+8.8) Alliance
0.2 (-0.7) Green

Theres so much vote manipulation and tactical running in NI that this isn't massively a great reading for a straight nationalist v unionist shootout either. The DUP, UUP, SF and SDLP all stood down candidates in constituencies so as not to split the vote with the other unionist or nationalist party and there was also two constituencies, North Down and East Belfast where no nationalist candidate ran. Alliance skews it all further as well obviously being neither.

 

[Reiser99]

Theres so much vote manipulation and tactical running in NI that this isn't massively a great reading for a straight nationalist v unionist shootout either. The DUP, UUP, SF and SDLP all stood down candidates in constituencies so as not to split the vote with the other unionist or nationalist party and there was also two constituencies, North Down and East Belfast where no nationalist candidate ran. Alliance skews it all further as well obviously being neither.

Tbh any potential for Irish reunification depends on how shafted NI gets during the next phase of trade deals and if Scotland gets independence. I think if Scotland do, then more people will actually believe it's possible.

 

[ncurd]

For me personally I'd love to try and help out at getting electoral reform, but the unfortunately it seems Farage is going to lead that charge and I just couldn't bring myself to vote for him.

You don't have to vote for Farage it's been a LD cornerstone policy since like forever, many activists are hugely passionate about it. One of the key parts of the coalition deal and why it was accepted was reform, sadly the Tories broke their promises on reforming the house of lords. Which should of ended the coalition.

The Greens are also pro electoral reform as well.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

What's the craic with a Scottish referendum - with a Tory majority they could just say no, right? And that's their stance?

If Westminster block it is there anything the SNP can do about it?

 

[Not Mike Brown's Sock]

What's the craic with a Scottish referendum - with a Tory majority they could just say no, right? And that's their stance?

If Westminster block it is there anything the SNP can do about it?

Nope not really.
They could just hold one anyway but that opens a big fkn can of worms.
Tbh if the snp want what's best for Scotland and not just independence for the sake of it then surely you wait a year, bring the deficit down, have a look at the political landscape then and have a go then?

 

[TRF_Olyy]

I guess it depends on Brexit/their EU status.

If they leave the UK before the UK leaves the EU is there some loophole that means they're still an EU member without having to reapply?

 

[General Melchett]

What's the craic with a Scottish referendum - with a Tory majority they could just say no, right? And that's their stance?

If Westminster block it is there anything the SNP can do about it?

My understanding is that legally the SNP can't do anything but it would play into their hands politically as they could, after their recent electoral success, claim that BoJo is ignoring the will of the Scottish people who have "the right to choose their own future" (which is the SNP's version of "Taking back control"). This would lead to a deterioration of relations between Scotland and Westminster and more than likely increased support for independence. Yes Indyref 1 was only in 2014 but I think most people would concede that Brexit easily meets the 'material change of circumstances' criteria.

I am a pro Union EU Remainer but with Brexit now looking nailed on I, along with many like minded friends see a far right Tory Brexit as a deal breaker and we would vote for independence if there was a chance of rejoining the EU as an independent Scotland. I would also love the Tories 'owning' Scotland's departure from the UK due to their pursuit of Brexit. As others have already suggested NI would more than likely follow suit.

 

[General Melchett]

I just checked the voting eligibility rules for the 2014 Scottish independence referendum. Basically anyone aged 16 and over living in Scotland at the time of the referendum was eligible to vote. If Indyref2 does happen I could easily see a surge of pro EU English people moving north of the border and lending their support