Dullonien’s solution to Welsh rugby

[dullonien]

Firstly I want to highlight the main issues I had in mind when drawing up this plan:

- The split in Welsh rugby between the traditional clubs and the regions.
- The absence of top flight rugby in the Valleys and in North (and Mid) Wales.
- The divide between the regions and the WRU.
- The Welsh player exodus.
- The stop-start nature of the current European rugby calendar.

So, initially I want to focus on the best format for Welsh club/regional rugby in Wales. I have always been sceptical about the current make-up of the regions. Mainly due to the selfishness of a few clubs back when the regional plan was being drawn up, I don't think they embrace all of Wales. Cardiff, Llanelli and Newport simply weren't willing to lose their identity and properly merge with neighbouring clubs to form more sensible regional sides which would have better divided the rugby strongholds and player pool.

The big question then, is whether the current regional system is the correct one for Wales? Many want to abandon regional rugby altogether and return to the club format, but this would be pure suicide, resulting in 10-12 extremely weak clubs that wouldn't be able to compete on the European front. However, is there a middle ground, which could bring club rugby back into focus, but allow competition in Europe? A quick look towards the NZ system suggests there is.

This is my proposal which I think could work, and could potentially please everyone (impossible I know):

- Return to a domestic club league similar to the ITM Cup in NZ. Most of the regional players play in this league; however a number of the top Welsh players who are likely to play regularly for Wales are rested for the most part in order to manage the amount of games they play each season. In order to keep the league short, and competition high, I would reduce the number of clubs to 8 or 10. I would include RGC 1404 in this competition and possibly outline plans for a Mid- Wales region to be included in the future. This league would kick off the season, and run through to completion.

- 3 regional sides, controlled and run by the WRU using central contracts, then enter the European competition. The make-up of these regions would obviously be difficult, but ideally IMO they would be East, Central and West running along the M4 corridor. I'd love for there to be a North Wales region from the off, but the player pool or support isn't there yet.

The East region could combine Cardiff, Newport, Ebbw Vale, Cross Keys, Bedwas etc. The Central region could combine Pontypridd, Bridgend, Aberavon, Neath etc. While the West region could combine Swansea, Llanelli, Carmarthen, Llandovery etc. IMO this would be the most even way to separate the balance of power and would result in 3 competitive and relatively even regions whilst fully incorporating the valleys which currently feel alienated from Welsh rugby. Of course, whether Cardiff-Newport, and Llanelli-Swansea in particular would be able to join forces is another thing….. In the future, RGC 1404 and the potential Mid-Wales region could combine adding a 4th region to the mix.

With WRU control, another possibility would be to utilise the assistant Welsh coaches at the 3 regions. One option would be that they all spend time at each region. Or another could be that one is placed as head coach of each of the regions, e.g. Howley at the East region, Jenkins and Edwards at the Central region, and McBryde at the West region. Whether Jenkins and McBryde in particular are good enough to be head coaches is up for debate however, but I think it would strengthen the connection between the regions and the national team, and would potentially improve the quality of the assistant coaches thus strengthening the Welsh coaching team as a whole. These assistant coaches would also be in a better position to succeed Gatland when he comes to the end of his reign as Welsh coach.

Because these regions will only be competing at European level with a limited amount of games per season, squads would be much smaller than the current regional squads, so there may potentially be more money available to retain our top players. Also because these regions would be under WRU control and centrally contracted, the so called Gatland law could be fully implemented if necessary to retain our best players.

Once again, the European tournament would run from beginning through to completion in its entirety.

One of the big issues with this plan is what happens to the other nations involved in the Pro12? Would Ireland, Scotland and Italy be willing to adopt a similar system with each country running their own domestic competitions, and similarly coming together as provinces/regions for the European competition? In Ireland there probably isn't the need with the Irish provinces going incredibly well in terms of results, support and financially. With regards to Scotland, I'm afraid I'm a little ignorant of what lies beneath Edinburgh and Glasgow. Is there a strong domestic league? Italy I feel are in a good position already due to how recently they set-up their two regional sides, so returning to their well-established domestic league, and combining as they do now as Treviso and Zebre for Europe would be a relatively easy task.

Finally, is there an ideal calendar format for European rugby which would allow each of the individual competitions to run in their entirety, avoiding the current mess of jumping from competition to competition all the time, which imo disrupts things for the clubs/regions/provinces, and confuses things for the fans? Can the three international windows (6 nations, AI's and summer tours) fit into the calendar without interrupting any of the domestic/European competitions? When I have a little more time I'll try to sit down to work it out, but initial thoughts are that it may be possible with what I've outlined for Welsh rugby above with a smallish domestic league; but for the larger English and French leagues it would be impossible.

Ideally I'd like to see the calendar moved to the summer months as well, with the 6 nations pushed forwards by at least a month. This would avoid most of the really bad weather, avoiding the cancelled games we've had in recent seasons due to snow and rain, and it would result in a better spectacle for the supporters. The big problem with this is that we'd lose the popular festive period derbies such as those coming up on Boxing Day.

Thoughts?

 

[Maverick1987]

One of the major troubles I saw whilst living near Newport was that people from ebbw vale who support their home team WILL NOT support the dragons generally . I've put will not in capitals because tbh I've not seen such animosity in rugby before . I presume the same goes with Cardiff and Pontypridd and Swansea and Neath probably although don't know as much about these areas

 

[j'nuh]

The NZ system would work differently in Wales for a few reasons:

- The depth and quality of the NZ rugby system means that they can have a number of good teams in a club competition. 8 Welsh clubs fighting it out wouldn't provide a particularly high quality of rugby, even with the internationals rolled in. Fans would only get behind the product for the history of the teams involved, and to be honest, if that was possible, I think the Welsh clubs would be getting higher attendances than they currently are.

- The Super XV is a 20+3 round tournament. The Heineken Cup is 6+3. I can't see the regions surviving commercially on such a small amount of money.

And another reason why it shouldn't happen:

- You're basically keeping the current system, but replacing the Pro12 with a Welsh club system as the national tournament. I don't think that the quality of such a tournament would be high enough for the development of players. Despite it's failings, the one upside to the Pro12 is that it does give a competitive environment for young people to practise in. It's this conveyor belt of talent that has kept the national team churning and rugby alive in Wales. To take these young players away from the regions and put them in smaller clubs, with smaller facilities and smaller-time coaches in a lower-quality tournament, and I don't see it being good for Wales, and ultimately the health of the game.

As for changing the regions... I think it's too late. Personally. Setting up new brands takes time and money, something that cannot really be afforded now. You may find that Newport gets folded into Cardiff at some point and you effectively have East/Central/West, but I wouldn't go around messing with borders again. Fans will not appreciate it.

For me, the Premiership is still Wales' best bet, and I'm glad that steps are finally being made to explore that option.

 

[Rich Taff]

As much as we like to believe we're not, we're a very small country, with a very small playerbase (NZ has a massive playerbase compared to Wales). The tribalism that exists is ridiculously high, so there will always be those who 'Will never support blahblah!'

I really can't see how it can be reorganised due to the small playerbase.

A mid Wales region would have villages who pride themselves on 'how much they hate the neighbouring village' being asked to play together, and the sheer stubborness wouldn't let it happen in my view.

Nice post though, brings up some interesting points/suggestions.

If it was easy to sort it out, then I guess it would have been done by now though

 

[dullonien]

One of the major troubles I saw whilst living near Newport was that people from ebbw vale who support their home team WILL NOT support the dragons generally . I've put will not in capitals because tbh I've not seen such animosity in rugby before . I presume the same goes with Cardiff and Pontypridd and Swansea and Neath probably although don't know as much about these areas

That's one of the biggest issues facing Welsh rugby. As it stands, regional rugby appears dead on its feet, because they simply cannot draw the required level of attendance. A lack of success is certainly also a major reason for that, but fans unwilling to support a region which includes one of their rivals is the other main reason. We can't simply wait for the older generations of fans to be replaced by younger ones who haven't grown up with the traditional rivalries, because there will be no domestic rugby left to support by that point.

I'm probably somewhat naive in thinking that supporters would be more willing to embrace regional sides for Europe, when they also have their traditional clubs to support at fully professional top flight (or close to) level. If they aren't then I fail to understand what they expect to happen when it should be totally obvious that a club side such as Llenelli could never compete in Europe against top English, Irish and French teams. I suppose that's the problem though, there is little rational thinking going on with regards to such matters. I bet the same supporters are willing to Embrace the British and Irish Lions despite their probable 'hatred' of England. Go figure.

The NZ system would work differently in Wales for a few reasons:

- The depth and quality of the NZ rugby system means that they can have a number of good teams in a club competition. 8 Welsh clubs fighting it out wouldn't provide a particularly high quality of rugby, even with the internationals rolled in. Fans would only get behind the product for the history of the teams involved, and to be honest, if that was possible, I think the Welsh clubs would be getting higher attendances than they currently are.

- The Super XV is a 20+3 round tournament. The Heineken Cup is 6+3. I can't see the regions surviving commercially on such a small amount of money.

And another reason why it shouldn't happen:

- You're basically keeping the current system, but replacing the Pro12 with a Welsh club system as the national tournament. I don't think that the quality of such a tournament would be high enough for the development of players. Despite it's failings, the one upside to the Pro12 is that it does give a competitive environment for young people to practise in. It's this conveyor belt of talent that has kept the national team churning and rugby alive in Wales. To take these young players away from the regions and put them in smaller clubs, with smaller facilities and smaller-time coaches in a lower-quality tournament, and I don't see it being good for Wales, and ultimately the health of the game.

As for changing the regions... I think it's too late. Personally. Setting up new brands takes time and money, something that cannot really be afforded now. You may find that Newport gets folded into Cardiff at some point and you effectively have East/Central/West, but I wouldn't go around messing with borders again. Fans will not appreciate it.

For me, the Premiership is still Wales' best bet, and I'm glad that steps are finally being made to explore that option.

I do agree with you on all points. Ideally the current system is the one I'd want to retain, but it's becoming more and more obvious that it isn't sustainable. The WRU are unwilling to pump more money into a failing system, I think that's becoming obvious, and is why they aren't offering more money in the new participation agreement. Gwyn Jones alluded to the fact that the WRU mostly fund the regional academies, so they would still be in place to produce quality young players who could then be assigned to different clubs in the region. These regional academies are doing a great job at the moment, they are the only thing which are working well in the current set-up.

Whilst initially there would be a step-down in quality from Pro12 standard, and it wouldn't be able to match it for years to come, if it's the only way to get the fans back on board, then it may simply be a case of taking the hit. The ITM cup sides in NZ couldn't compete with their provincial parents either, but the quality is good enough to supply a healthy amount of talented players to the provincial set-up. I think the same could be true in Wales, even despite the obvious disparity in the numbers of quality youngsters we produce compared to NZ. I think it would result in stronger regions on the European stage if they were underpinned by a stronger league than the semi-pro Principality Premiership.

Regarding the difference between SR and the HC, maybe there'd be room to expand the HC. Of course this is looking at things solely from a Welsh perspective, and not from an English or French perspective who don't want to water down their domestic leagues to make room for an expanded European competition. Nothing wrong with players playing less games per season though imo, I'm sure a balance could be found.

It probably is too late to change the regional borders. If something doesn't change it might have to happen anyway though. I think the 3 regions I've outlined would theoretically be the best format. Llanelli and Carmarthen don't have the population to realistically support a region who's aim should be to get consistent 20k+ attendances, so adding the large population of Swansea would make a huge amount of sense. There's a large population in the Valleys for a Central region. Cardiff aren't strong enough to stand alone when it comes to players, so including Newport makes sense there too. Still, I can just imagine the hostility from Cyril at the thought of combining Llanelli and Swansea, so alas it'd probably be no better in the real world.

So the conclusion, were probably screwed regardless of what happens.

As much as we like to believe we're not, we're a very small country, with a very small playerbase (NZ has a massive playerbase compared to Wales). The tribalism that exists is ridiculously high, so there will always be those who 'Will never support blahblah!'

I really can't see how it can be reorganised due to the small playerbase.

A mid Wales region would have villages who pride themselves on 'how much they hate the neighbouring village' being asked to play together, and the sheer stubborness wouldn't let it happen in my view.

Nice post though, brings up some interesting points/suggestions.

If it was easy to sort it out, then I guess it would have been done by now though

I think a Mid Wales region could work. Whilst there is bitter rivalries between the likes of Aberystwyth and Tregaron etc. I think they would come together as a region if it meant a higher level of rugby to watch. Before this could even be attempted though, the quality of the current teams would need to be strengthened, starting at school level. The quality of coaching at school level in mid Wales compared to south Wales is poor imo, and this is where changes need to be made. Many of the smaller primary schools are being merged into larger ones which should help matters, but specialist coaches should make the rounds to help, and ex professional players need to be enticed to help coach at secondary level in the area. This already happens in south Wales because these ex professional players return to help in their old schools and village teams, but due to the lack of professional players produced in mid Wales the same doesn't happen here.

 

[smartcooky]

I like the Club based domestic/Region based in Europe idea, so I voted for that. Its very similar to our ITM Cup (our equivalent to the Welsh Premiership) and Super Rugby, with several ITM cup teams making up the Regional franchises. New Zealand's play base is 27,000 senior male players which supports five regional teams, and could easily support six. Wales have about 12,000 senior male players, so their base should be able to support two or three Regional teams; four might stetch it a bit.

However, the only way it can work logistically is for the EuroCup to be a standalone tournament at the end of the season, so WP, AP, Top 14 all done and dusted by the time of the Six Nations, then the Euro Cup straight after that. Six Nations might have to be nudged a couple of weeks to make it fit.

 

[norcalbuff]

One of the issues I see is that the new regions would have trouble establishing an identity playing only 6 matches (plus any playoffs) per year. A country like Ireland, despite not needing something similar, would be able to cope with this much better because its provinces have significant history behind them both in and outside of rugby. When creating artificial regions, you really need a full season for supporters to get behind.

Tough questions for Welsh rugby ahead, but the future isn't all gloomy. You guys have had some excellent results at the U20 level in the past few years so your player development systems are still working.

 

[dullonien]

One final idea before bed. Could the Pro12 be changed to a conference type league, with a larger number of clubs competing from each nation. e.g. 3 conferences, 6 Welsh, 6 Irish, and 3+3 Scottish and Itialian. That would equal 22 games (home and away in your conference + playing each side in the other conferences once).

Whether it would be possible to agree on only 6 clubs would be difficult. Carmarthen and Llandovery would probably have to be left out which would be tough given how competitive they are in the Principality Premiership at the moment, as would Bridgend etc.

Would it even be possible in Ireland, and is 3 clubs each enough for Scotland and Italy. Going up to 8 each would result in 30 games in the regular season which would be too much.

Just thinking out loud (whilst very tired), so it may be a terrible idea anyway.

One of the issues I see is that the new regions would have trouble establishing an identity playing only 6 matches (plus any playoffs) per year. A country like Ireland, despite not needing something similar, would be able to cope with this much better because its provinces have significant history behind them both in and outside of rugby. When creating artificial regions, you really need a full season for supporters to get behind.

Tough questions for Welsh rugby ahead, but the future isn't all gloomy. You guys have had some excellent results at the U20 level in the past few years so your player development systems are still working.

Very valid point. Arg, we're doomed, might as well accept it now.

As for the development systems, yup the academies are doing a fine job.

 

[Peat]

Sometimes I dream of a similar solution in English rugby. A two-tier domestic league of about eight or so teams that provides players with a stepping stone to 6 or so English regions that take part in a true Euroleague. The reality though makes such a change incredibly difficult, relying on huge amounts of consensus and goodwill. I get the way you want to create a clear link between a strong and proud Welsh league which gets fans interested and then take the players whom the fans follow off to play elite matches and sharpen everyone up, hopefully taking fan interest with them. Its a possible goer if everything else was to fall into place but it won't, not anytime soon at least.

My first solution to Welsh rugby would be to somehow persuade the WRU to defecate or get off the pot. Either they take complete control of the Regions in some way or they accept that they cannot dictate so to independent partners and forge a better relationship which includes paying their way and financially backing their men. That fracture is the most important one, not the one between fans and regions. Granted, my solution is probably even more unlikely than Dull's, but it does cut right to the core.

 

[snoopy snoopy dog dog]

First of all, top post dullonien. I haven't commented before now because I'm uneducated on Welsh rugby so can't properly comment on what I think is best for the country. A few points I can comment on with a certain degree of knowledge:

One of the big issues with this plan is what happens to the other nations involved in the Pro12? Would Ireland, Scotland and Italy be willing to adopt a similar system with each country running their own domestic competitions, and similarly coming together as provinces/regions for the European competition? In Ireland there probably isn't the need with the Irish provinces going incredibly well in terms of results, support and financially. With regards to Scotland, I'm afraid I'm a little ignorant of what lies beneath Edinburgh and Glasgow. Is there a strong domestic league? Italy I feel are in a good position already due to how recently they set-up their two regional sides, so returning to their well-established domestic league, and combining as they do now as Treviso and Zebre for Europe would be a relatively easy task.

I suspect Ireland wouldn't be willing to change. The system you've suggested is very similar to that which Ireland ran until the formation of the Celtic League. The provinces only came together for the interpro championship and Heineken Cup. The rest of the time, the best Irish players played All Ireland League rugby.

I believe a half way house option is possible. The Pro 12 is bloated at 22 games plus playoffs and it leads to weakened teams. Split it into three mini conferences: a 4 team Irish conference, 4 team Welsh conference and 4 team Italian/Scottish conference. Play teams in your conference both home and away to preserve the most money spinning derbies. Play the 8 teams not in your conference either home or away. That reduces the season by 8 games (to 14 games plus playoffs), decreases player burnout, means full strength teams can take the field more often and helps on costs since lower squad sizes would be needed. I believe higher quality teams would see higher crowds, increase media interest (and rights fees) and thus offset the loss in gate receipts of 4 home fixtures per season.

Following on from that, fewer Pro 12 games means more players would be available more often for Welsh, Irish, Scottish and Italian domestic league games increasing their quality. If the B&I Cup and LV= Cup are disbanded, that will further help domestic league quality and bring the Pro 12 countries closer to the New Zealand model.

On how the WRU/RRW come up with their 4 participating clubs, I'm afraid I can't offer a reasoned opinion!

 

[Peat]

I don't suppose anyone has comparitive HEC/Pro12 attendances do they? Would be a pretty good guide for the level of interest in Guaranteed Serious Business games. I am dubious as to just how much of a bump there would be.

 

[snoopy snoopy dog dog]

I don't suppose anyone has comparitive HEC/Pro12 attendances do they? Would be a pretty good guide for the level of interest in Guaranteed Serious Business games. I am dubious as to just how much of a bump there would be.

It's hard to gauge because teams massage their figures. Leinster, for example, announce tickets sold rather than attendences thus all games have over 13000 fans at them when it's clearly not the case. What is clear from the empty spaces in the stands is that attendences drop by 1000-2000 during the 6 Nations. A reduced Pro 12 programme would cut these underperforming fixtures from the calendar.

 

[profitius]

The solution IMO would be to create proper regions. The regions they have now are really clubs disguised as regions ie Cardiff, Llanellli etc. They're fooling nobody and the WRU at the time made a balls of it. We in Ireland are said to be lucky because of the provinces but thats far from perfect too. For instance you have a professional team in Galway, with a population of 60,000 while in Cork 300,000+ people you have about 4 or 5 pro 12 games a year against weak opposition. Not very efficient is it! It looks even crazier when you consider that Galway and Limerick are not far from each other in the west.


The Welsh simply cannot go back to a club game because that would create more problems. For starters theres too many clubs, the quality would be diluted. You have professionals coming up against amateurs. When getting together to play for the regions in Europe the players will be lacking cohesion and way off the level of intensity and speed required and probably in bad condition too.

 

[smartcooky]

The solution IMO would be to create proper regions. The regions they have now are really clubs disguised as regions ie Cardiff, Llanellli etc. They're fooling nobody and the WRU at the time made a balls of it.

But we managed to to exactly that. Rugby experts here said that the five regions in NZ's Super Rugby would never work, but it has, because it was marketed brilliantly to the public, and part of that marketing was to encourage the catchment provinces in each franchise to take ownership of the teams.e.g. the Crusaders were created from Canterbury, South Canterbury, Mid-Canterbury, Tasman (which used to be Nelson Bays & Marlborough) West coast and Buller. Some matches are played in the catchment areas, for example Nelson and Timaru, and pre-season matches are often held in places like Motueka, and Westport. There are some bitter rivalries in there; South and Mid-Canterbury is one, but Nelson and Marlborough is the biggest and bitterest. The two Unions don't like each other. Marlburians are often referred to by Nelsonians using such delightful pejoratives as "those bloody feral tussock-jumpers from over the hill". Nelson plus Marlborough to make Tasman was a marriage made in hell, but we have managed to make it work so far, and won a Championship into the bargain.

All it takes is marketing and attitude. The fans of individual clubs have to be realistic and decide whether or not they want Welsh rugby to survive, or fall into the mire, because the mire is where it will be headed if the blind tribalism of the club fans continues.

Perhaps what needs to happen is for the WRU to go back over the history of the Welsh Premiership and see which are the four best performed clubs, and make the regions based on them, but ensure that some matches go to venues other than each franchise club. You can't just make regions without selling the idea to the participants and doing everything possible to get them on-board.