Emerging nations in 10 years time

[profitius]

What emerging countries do you think will be much stronger in 10 years time?

At the moment young have the likes of Canada, Georgia, USA, the Pacific Island nations, Romania, Japan, Russia etc who are all getting stronger. You also have countries like Belgium, Spain, Portugal, Germany, Netherlands etc who are moving forwards in their rugby development.

How many countries do you think will move up to tier one or move to tier two from lower tiers?

 

[TRF_Ezequiel]

Not sure on how many, but I think Madagascar will be a handful for Namibia in the coming years and I wouldn't be surprised if they make it to a RWC in the near future as the Africa 2 seed

 

[ZeFrenchy]

Romania has been going down for 30 years now. I think Georgia is close to its limit as well. I can see the USA and Russia getting a lot better, while Kenya and Madagascar will start soon to upset Namibia more consistently. Elsewhere, Spain, Portugal and Brazil I'd say are on the rise.

Do you guys think that come RWC 2019 time Japan will have a chance to progress from the pool stages at home?

 

[-InvIctus-]

What emerging countries do you think will be much stronger in 10 years time?

At the moment young have the likes of Canada, Georgia, USA, the Pacific Island nations, Romania, Japan, Russia etc who are all getting stronger. You also have countries like Belgium, Spain, Portugal, Germany, Netherlands etc who are moving forwards in their rugby development.

How many countries do you think will move up to tier one or move to tier two from lower tiers?

They already are a handful for certain good-leveled teams

 

[white bear]

In Poland good tendentions, from several years they regulary play in ENC.
In Russia at the moment the development is only due to the clubs, a Rus Union (Kopiev) is engaged exclusively in rugby-7 and prevents the development of rugby-15 (permanently take away the players to sevens team (Ostroushko, Artemyev, Gresev, Simplikevich.....)) - who has contacts with the IRB tell them about it, the Russian fans do not need Rugby 7 - this degradation of our rugby.

 

[TRF_Cymro]

Russia, USA, Georgia, Japan and Canada for me.

 

[psychic duck]

Romania has been going down for 30 years now. I think Georgia is close to its limit as well. I can see the USA and Russia getting a lot better, while Kenya and Madagascar will start soon to upset Namibia more consistently. Elsewhere, Spain, Portugal and Brazil I'd say are on the rise.

Do you guys think that come RWC 2019 time Japan will have a chance to progress from the pool stages at home?

This is very wrong.

The side has not fared too well since the RWC, but looking longer term, the youth system has got to a stage where Georgia has beaten Italy for two years in a row now at age group level and the game has only relatively recently come into the mainstream public view since RWC 03 and they have a good physical and natural aptitude for the sport. So there should actually be plenty of young talent to come through in the future and build a far more successful side than the current one, the sport is still on the rise.

Romania have also arrested their decline now. They may not be rising, but they are no longer going downhill either and are firmly still in the top 8 of Europe.

As for Madagascar, that result was a freak result based on home advantage and a weakened Namibia team. The fact Namibia have now sent out a strengthened team to Africa qualifying after being put in a must win situation and brushed aside an opponent that nearly beat the 2012 squad by 30 odd points that they suggests that they are still very strong favourites to qualify. None of the African teams have shown much sign of beating the likes of Romania tbh.

Regarding Japan, I would say progressing out the group is a long shot (unless they somehow get a favourable draw as automatic top seed or something).

 

[ZeFrenchy]

I stand corrected then, good for Georgia. I'm still to see a decent Georgian back though.

 

[psychic duck]

I stand corrected then, good for Georgia. I'm still to see a decent Georgian back though.

Italy have hardly produced any backs who would be good enough to get in the top 4 6 Nations sides apart from Troncon. Machkhaneli in his prime was decent I would say, especially in his first two World Cups. The backs are limited but they can usually at least defend, kind of Graeme Morrison like in a way.

As for the future, well there is one young back that I think could be very decent in the future. The back play is something being worked on as a priority in Georgia at the minute, to mixed results I must say.

Still, I would rather build around a good pack and poor backs than the other way round. Italy and Argentina are two sides that broke through predominantly based around forward play. It is only now they are both established that they are trying to expand their game.

Within the next 10 years though, I see USA and Japan as the two main emerging nations. Russia is a much longer term thing, interest is still low there compared to others. Japan are well funded, they just need to correct some big faults in their system that Eddie Jones has pointed out.

 

[j'nuh]

Samoa --> tier one

USA and Canada to start pushing Scotland and Italy at the bottom of tier one if they get their pro league set up.

Japan may do the same if the WC goes down as a success (but it may take about 15-20+ years in this case) and galvanises interest in the sport.

France will stay in tier one, but I can see a gradual decline in their success if they don't start promoting youth in favour of foreign talent. Lost 30-6 at home against England in the U20s, and of those players that do make it professionally, how many will make it at a top Top14 team? The French rugby system just seems to be turning into the English football one to me. Professionalism keeps them in the top tier, a lack of opportunities for youth stops them from being among the best.

On the flip side, if France (and England) do start to limit the number of foreign players, this may come to the detriment of teams like Georgia and Argentina.

 

[Tony Manx]

France will stay in tier one, but I can see a gradual decline in their success if they don't start promoting youth in favour of foreign talent. Lost 30-6 at home against England in the U20s, and of those players that do make it professionally, how many will make it at a top Top14 team? The French rugby system just seems to be turning into the English football one to me. Professionalism keeps them in the top tier, a lack of opportunities for youth stops them from being among the best..

I have said it before and will again, at present it appears to me that the club side is far more important than the international and the question I would ask is do the French really, truly care what their international world ranking is or will be?

For all intent and purposes, outside Paris, senior rugby is played down the Rhone valley and along the south coast of the Med to Biarritz. I feel, not know, feel that the senior clubs, other than Racing and Stade, and their supporters leave International rugby to Paris and get on with the main event which is club rugby?

I wonder how many of the senior rugby clubs' supporters are regulars at Stade de France for internationals and how many of the crowd there are actually true rugby supporters as opposed to Parisiens having a social time!!

Love to hear the views of the true French guys on this rather than letting this extremely happy ex-Pat ramble on.................!!

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

I'd say Georgia, Canada and Japan. I don't think the USA is going to go anywhere as Rugby will just never be able to get the talent whilst NFL is around.

 

[dragos03]

Nations that I think will rise (in no particular order): USA, Canada, Romania, Georgia, Brazil, Poland, Germany, Japan, Zimbabwe
Nations that might fall a bit from their current status: Argentina, Scotland, Spain, Uruguay, Russia

 

[The big Kangaroo]

Do you guys think that come RWC 2019 time Japan will have a chance to progress from the pool stages at home?

you would not think so since they are yet to win a game. maybe they can win there one game against USA at the next world cup and then possible 2 in 2019 but progression is pretty unlikely.

 

[dasNdanger]

Nations that I think will rise (in no particular order): USA, Canada, Romania, Georgia, Brazil, Poland, Germany, Japan, Zimbabwe
Nations that might fall a bit from their current status: Argentina, Scotland, Spain, Uruguay, Russia

I think Scotland - based on their last 6 Nations - is trying to build itself back up. I have hopes that they will. It seems they're starting to take the game seriously again.

I hope Argentina continues to build - would hate to see them decline how that they're finally playing with the 'big boys'.

I think the US, and by some sort of weird extension, Canada and Russia, will rise. If interest in the sport continues to grow and the American team gets stronger, then Canada and Russia will probably grow their sport, too, since there's all sorts of age-old sports rivalries between the three (mostly due to hockey, but I see that rivalry possibly spreading to rugby, as well).

That all said, I think when rugby 7s hits the Olympics, all bets are off. The game may take off in countries we never thought would be big contenders, though I wonder if that happens will it have a negative effect on 15s (in other words, will countries focus on 7s at the sacrifice of 15s since it's easier to get a side together, especially in smaller nations)?



das

 

[snoopy snoopy dog dog]

It's very, very hard to tell.

Of the tier 1 countries, I think Argentina could become a powerhouse. Regular competition against the Sanzar nations will raise their game. I'd love to see Italy do likewise but their underage results are generally poor which doesn't leave a strong foundation.

From tier 2, the IRB are doing the right thing in getting more high level games for Samoa. I think they'll be live World Cup quarter final contenders from now on.

Psychic Duck knows a lot more about Georgian rugby than I do so I'll 100% go with what he says. That they've bested Italy two years running at underage level is a big positive for them. I view 2019 as a big moment in the sports history with the World Cup moving away from the traditional nations. Georgia should be a tier 1 nation by then if they're supported.

The 2019 World Cup in Japan will hopefully lead to better things from them. They need more tests against tier 1 countries. I hope all the tier 1 nations play the Cherry Blossoms in Japan at least once before they host the sport's largest event. In 10 years I think they'll be in the position Samoa are in now - just outside tier 1 status.

They are the easy ones to list. Not so easy is the next group. How about the USA, Russia and...........China.

It seems like every few months another company have plans to establish a pro league in North America. If one gets off the ground, it could have the same effect on rugby in the States as the MLS has for soccer there. From being a bit of a joke in 1990, the World Cup in 1994 and subsequent establishment of the MLS brought the American national team to the World Cup quarter final in 2002. In 2009 they beat Spain en route to a Confederations Cup final. America could be quarter finalists in 2023 in my opinion.

While Olympic involvement is only in the bastardized 7s format, Russia and China's desire for Olympic medals can't be underestimated. I suspect both governments will throw money at that sport which will have a positive impact on the XVs sides. Neither will be close to qualifying for the 2023 last eight but both should comfortably qualify for the tournament.

To assist growth in the sport, how about a 24 team tournament (4 pools of 6 teams) in 2023, hopefully in Italy or Argentina? There would be mismatches but gaps between the top teams and tier 2 are shrinking so there'd be no more than there are now. It would provide the minnows with another chance to win a game against fellow developing nations and from a financial perspective, countries with potentially large TV markets like Russia, Germany, Brazil, Spain and China would have a better chance of qualifying.

 

[profitius]

The 2 main ingredients for rugby to become a success is 1/ getting rugby on TV and in the media and 2/ having a union that is well run with a view to growing the game.

Take Scotland as an example. They're been left behind by Wales and Ireland but Scotland were the best of the Celts not so long ago. Their main problem is having a media being dominated by soccer. Their union was also badly run and had a big debt to pay off so focused on that instead of helping to grow the game. They have turned a corner now though since new people are running the Scottish rugby union. Glasgow are flying in the Pro 12 so there is signs of change.

I see Canada have just signed a new TV deal that will give them more exposure. This could be the big difference between Canada and the USA. If Canadians are watching rugby in TV they'll be far more inclined to support the sport.

What other countries have good rugby exposure on TV?

 

[dasNdanger]

What other countries have good rugby exposure on TV?

Rugby coverage in the US is...meh. Maybe very meh. And yeah, I actually typed 'meh'.

However, in the past 12 years or so since I first started watching the game, I have noticed more American awareness of the sport. There once was a time when the only thing 99% of Americans knew about rugby came from an episode of Friends, but now I'm hearing people say stuff like, 'Rugby? Yeah, I saw that on tv recently - rough sport!' Some people are seeing in on Fox's pricey football (soccer) channels. With soccer gaining momentum in this country more people are putting out the $15 or so a month to get the soccer channels, many of which also air a fair amount of rugby (both union and league, though they are very light on SH union competitions - I'm just fortunate that with my satellite I get an extra 'free' channel that does air those matches, perhaps as an 'overflow' channel for Fox Soccer Plus which took over rugby coverage when Setanta Sports pulled out of the US).

However, there are other channels that are airing the US games. Some are premium channels that cost extra, but others are aired on channels that normally come with a cable or satellite basic package. They do tend to show more 7s events, mostly I think to build interest in the Olympics. Still, since in order to really watch the sport most people have to pay for extra channels, it still has a way to go here in the US as far as media coverage goes. Local news totally ignore the sport, especially if a match aired on a different channel (a year or so back there was a collegiate rugby 7s championship tournament in Philadelphia, and I think the only news coverage it received was on the same station that aired the event - the other local news outlets basically ignored it).

I am hoping things will be different come November when the Eagles play the NZ Maori. If they ignore that game then they're gonna get an earful from me! (I plan to 'poke' them a bit about it on-line, just so they're paying attention!)


das

 

[-InvIctus-]

Yeah i think the USA will be a force to be considered in the future but is it just me or do they keep "converting" American football players thinking they'll be the next big thing ?

 

[dasNdanger]

Yeah i think the USA will be a force to be considered in the future but is it just me or do they keep "converting" American football players thinking they'll be the next big thing ?

It sort of goes both ways. American Football has 'stolen' some boots (flyhalf types) from the rugby pitch to handle kicking duties, but some American Football players who haven't made the grade have gone over to rugby because - believe it or not - it's easier on the body, with fewer career-ending injuries. I think as rugby catches on more 'football' guys may start eyeing up the game - overall it's more challenging, more physical (endurance-wise), and certainly more exciting!


das