How prepared?

[j'nuh]

We're now nearly halfway into the current 4-year WC cycle. I got thinking, how prepared is each team for the next WC? This isn't really a "which team is the best right now" kind of thread, but how long a squad needs to realise it's potential?

For example, I can't help but wonder whether Wales would really want the WC to start right now, in worry of the props and Phillips, or whether 2 years is the right amount of time for the props to still be around, but for some new scrum-halves to break through, and for a lot of the young guys to gain even more experience.

Whereas with England, I think 2015 is much too soon. We've only just patched the groundwork and started to find a consistency in the pack, and the squad needs much more time together and to age and for a back line to be developed. Another 4 years would probably be right for this squad to realise its potential.

 

[Feicarsinn]

I'm pretty much of the belief that Ireland and Wales should ignore this 4 season cycle lark. Sure it works for the larger countries where talent can be identified far off in advance and you could have a whole new crop coming through every few years, but with a smaller talent based I think the goal should be to rack up as many championships as possible and take the World Cup as it comes. In my mind winning the World Cup isn't going to be a realistic objective for Ireland for at least 15 years so we might as well try to reap as many successes as we can outside of that.

I think we have just about the right amount of time till the next WC. We need to decide what we're going to do with the centres (I have no doubt the players are there, it's just figuring which ones to put in which of the two shirts), develop another TH (be that Moore, Hagan or just as probably Nathan White) and allow a third back row forward to come up to the level of SOB and JH (hopefully Hendo.) I'd also like to see guys like Zebo, Marshall, Gilroy, Madigan, Henderson and a few others get a little bit more time in the green shirt before the WC.

I'm happy enough with where we are. I think we can seriously improve over the next two years or so, something I haven't really believed about Ireland since 2008 or so. Only POC, Mike Ross and Rory Best out of the guys who are going to be heading to the World Cup are kicking on and the latter has replacements lining up to take his spot

 

[Big Ewis]

interesting thread.
I think England after the last Cup in 2011 looked very promising, snatching 2nd place in the 6N losing only to the eventual Grand Slam champs. They then managed a draw in South Africa, 14-14 that summer, only to explode against the All-Blacks at home.
But throughout the whole run with the new guys, the new faces of the England side (Tuilagi, Farrell, Marler, Robshaw): they've shown a fairly obvious vulnerability also. They were a rising force, full of confidence at home and couldn't capitalize against Australia at home, and during the 6N they never once looked dominant (except against SCO), and were on the verge of losing at home to Italy...and then got totally figured out and exposed in Cardiff last Feb.
So at a point through the ride, I would say "oh boy, England will be prepared as HELL come Cup time at home" but now there are some holes, some soft spots that are just *there* and that they will work on surely though in the meantime.
But for England specifically, there's no doubt on my mind they will show up no matter what when it's time. English pride and English Rugby pride specifically is just far too *extreme* (yes, 'extreme') and obsessive that there isn't a possibility they won't work their absolute butts off to really make some noise. I can't see them staying behind in the pools and see Wales and the Wallabies advance.

The scrum will be better, defense will be tight as hell, and they may develop that attacking Lancaster talked about some months ago. The English forwards will be FURIOUS come World Cup at home time...

 

[Peat]

I feel that England are 6 - 10 years away from a genuine World Cup winning squad.

I think right now the squad is too young and too ordinary. We do not have 5 World Class players - it's debatable whether we have one - and I don't see 5 developing between now and the next World Cup.

 

[ratsapprentice]

I feel that England are 6 - 10 years away from a genuine World Cup winning squad.

I think right now the squad is too young and too ordinary. We do not have 5 World Class players - it's debatable whether we have one - and I don't see 5 developing between now and the next World Cup.

Sadly, I agree.

 

[Patchey]

I'm a bit more optimistic about England. We wont win in 2015 but I'd expect to get to the semi-finals. I wouldn't be quite so optimistic if it wasn't a home World Cup for us. I huge amount depends on the next ten or so internationals, covering the AIs and 6N prior to next year's tour of New Zealand. As Peat says we don't currently have five world class players and are unlikely to develop any suddenly prior to 2015. However who gets to play and how we play as a team will ave a huge impact on player development.

Wales on the other hand have, I think, peaked too soon. I can't see them losing their places as the dominant force in Northern Hemisphere rugby before 2015 but by then the front row and scrum half issues may really start to tell.

 

[Aristodemus]

I don't think we are in too bad shape but I still feel England are the most likely NH nation to compete at the WC with SA and NZ. Personally I just hope we can move forward with creative backs (i.e lose Farrell, Barritt and Goode) and try to go out and win games rather than aim to not lose. These AI will be huge for us, if (and this is an almighty if) we can turn over NZ again and beat Australia it will build the confidence that will be necessary if we have any ambition to lift the WC.

I will point out that as usual I expect NZ will win it, but we can win it.

 

[TRF_heineken]

I will point out that as usual I expect NZ will win it, but we can win it.

Nah, they only win every 24 years...

I guess this Thread is not applicable to SA and NZ??

 

[Aristodemus]

Well me expecting them to win it doesn't mean they will

 

[TRF_Olyy]

I guess this Thread is not applicable to SA and NZ??

Why? :huh:

 

[TRF_heineken]

Why? :huh:

Sorry if that came out a bit cocky...

But the first post, sort gave me the indication that this thread is aimed more towards the non-SANZAR teams. As if they are at another level as opposed to Ireland, Wales and England.

If I can throw in my 2 cents, I think SA is in a prime position, and we have so many great exciting players coming through, that I can see a very strong team for the next World Cup.

On the question of preparation, well this can mean a few things. Coaching, staff, players, tactics, etc... On those fronts I see SA in a pretty good spot. But I am thankful that the World Cup is still a while away, as I don't think our young team will be able to cope as well as I would like them to cope at a World Cup. So the preparation part that I think SA is now focussing on is getting the core of the team experienced, and iron out certain aspects that was a problem.

 

[Big Ewis]

I can see SA winning it, but I don't think they'll beat NZ if they meet somehow. Haven't checked the RWC match-up structure, but I do believe that if they're relieved of playing the All Blacks by some heroic performance from some other team, they've got the green light.
And I'm just putting this out there, just a thought, but if France finish first in their group they face Argentina, if they beat them, NZ will have beaten Ireland and will meet France in the semi-finals........IN TWICKENHAM
last time that happened, the outcome was fairly..interesting. But that's just Rugby folklore, nothing rational and concrete of course.....

- South Africa would face any of Wales, Australia or England in the 1/4 and then in the 1/2. If they beat two of those, they face NZ or France in the Final.

- An England and France Final is potentially setup to happen as well as we won't meet before that. Again, France needs to beat Argentina then NZ and England needs to beat Samoa/SA, perhaps Australia/or Wales.

Oh and England may not have "five world class players" but England has consistently produced very good results, and some times without those 5 players. Just think 2007, they got over Australia and then France before giving it a hard battle in the final and not conceding a single try (and a MUCH better result than their pool match against SA). England work well as a machine, always. And they are coming off two fine 6N already and they've barely started rebuilding.

England has a ****ing Taz (Tuilagi) who as we've seen against the AB last November will single-handedly change a match (was the main catalyst for 2 of 3 ENG tries). He also scored one try all by himself against France in 2012, the only try against France in 2013, against Australia in 2012...
Robshaw offers great work at the breakdown, and another good carrier in Morgan. Scrum isn't as strong as other teams in Europe right now, but it will get stronger no doubt.
And as a team, they're gathered, keep their composure alright as they traditionally do and will only get more mature and wise. They have a FANTASTIC coach it seems. They can play fantastic defense when focused not many tries scored on them since the 2011 RWC:
- Only 4 in the 2012 6N
- 6 in the 2013 6N
- good defense in the 2012 EOYT.

But the attack, once again 'traditionally', most certainly needs work. Lancaster is a little ambiguous here for me though as he does openly declare and want better attack, wider spreading on the field but then proceeds to going England style again. Maybe it's smt we'll see in the next few episodes, but I just don't know what he wants. England looked good on attack this summer with those side B wingers, that Christian Wade guy and fly-half (Burns was it ?). They had that one really nice try against the Baabaas.

Don't take this the wrong way, England:
but this side does seem to be at an all-time low on attack. I don't think England has ever been this unproductive. If it wasn't for Tuilagi, the record would be even more 'alarming'. England's won games, and that's the whole point, but not a single try scored at home on Italy, the Tuilagi one on France was illegal, nothing in the Grand Slam decider in Wales, nothing in Ireland...yes 4 tries on Scotland, but that's not exactly an achievement, just a good start to the tournament.

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

Sorry if that came out a bit cocky...

But the first post, sort gave me the indication that this thread is aimed more towards the non-SANZAR teams. As if they are at another level as opposed to Ireland, Wales and England.

If I can throw in my 2 cents, I think SA is in a prime position, and we have so many great exciting players coming through, that I can see a very strong team for the next World Cup.

On the question of preparation, well this can mean a few things. Coaching, staff, players, tactics, etc... On those fronts I see SA in a pretty good spot. But I am thankful that the World Cup is still a while away, as I don't think our young team will be able to cope as well as I would like them to cope at a World Cup. So the preparation part that I think SA is now focussing on is getting the core of the team experienced, and iron out certain aspects that was a problem.

I also feel we are in a good position ATM. I think the core is there and the coaching staff even if not the best ever is two notches up from what we had in the last 'cycle'. I think we should really have been pushing in 2011 because we had the players and the time but sadly no coach/game of any value and no luck. This time round I think we still have the players or at least should have. I'm assuming here that young guys like Etzebeth, PSdT, Goosen, Serfontein and Le Roux will continue to grow and that some of the older heads will still be around and in good form. That is a lot of assumption but I expect it will work out in more instances than not. If I were to have a bit of look through the stcks..

Props:
Mtawarira is only 28 so should be in fine form for a prop in 2015 unless something unfortunate happens. Jannie (30) I think is still doing well enough but at 30 and not a superstar.. well, I would look at seriously developing someone other than just Oosthuizen (who should be around for a long while still at 24). Guthro (32) should have shelved as is IMO simply because he is based overseas and we have other options and will need to develop them at some stage. Looking at our options back home I would like to see Morne Mellett and Lourens Adriaanse (23 and 25) start to get look-ins from the Bokke as back-up or hopefully later even pushing Beast and Coenie.

Hooker:
Between Bissie and Strauss we have arguably two of the wrolds best and they SHOULD be fine come 2015; established internationals and seniors in the squad. Our fringe options drop off somewhat but are still very able should we lose both for some reason.

Locks:
Hmm, the project of replacing Matfield, Bakkies and Rossouw/Bekker is half complete in Etzebeth. While Flippie and Kruger are good players they aren't sure for 2015 IMO. PSdT would probably already have had his chance if he weren't injured. I see he is playing his first game back from injury on the weekend so maybe the last fixture of the Rugby Champioship?? Probably too early and HM will probably let him play another season of SR before his Bok call up and probably rightly so. The other fringe options are either too far off ITO development or simply not up to scratch IMO. Gerhard Mostert has dropped off the radar since his move to France.

Loose forwards:
I think we are pretty good here. Our current crop (Flouw, Vermeulen, Alberts and Kolisi) are doing just fine and there are good players on the fringes; Brussow, Arno Botha, Labuschagne and I like the look of both Kriel and Cook in the youngsters... its more a question of who do we leave out and here I am hoping that we don't see Spies back soon in anything other than a Bulls shirt (and even there he is holding up the traffic). It would simply be criminal. J Smith and Burger won't see game again probably as well. No reason to look back.

SH:
Here is the first real question mark IMO... the heir apparent Hougaard has been less than inspiring of late. Time will tell if he can turn it around and it could be that this year the personal issues got to him like it did Morne Steyn last year. I hope that is the case. Pienaar is just so slow I have time to go through a whole litany of swear words before he evenlooks up to consider providing some service. FdP I hope has the legs and it seems the Japanese road could be the right one to extend his carreer as he was sublime at home but there will be some questions till. Vermaak and Kockott are both on the fringes and overseas so probably will drop off the radar? The Free State duo are probably next in line.

FH:
Between Steyn, Lambie and Goosen (if not injured) we should be fine. For SA a world class 9 is more important IMO. The others are either too young and only promise at this stage or just not up t scratch again.

Centers:
Serfontein and Engelbrecht, thank you. To back them up.. Will JdV or Jaque Fourie have the legs? Will Frans Steyn pull up his socks and drop 10kg's? JdJ is there on the fringes. 2015 will be too early for some of the other promising up-and -commers IMO. The question here is if JdV isn't starting will Louw captain or who else? Strauss.. but Bismarck!

Wing:
Habana and JPP should be fine. Willie le Roux can play either of 14 or 15. We'll have to wait and see but I am not worried. The rest have too far to go.

Fullback:
Unless Ludik comes back to try his chances again it's a two-horse race between Taute and Le Roux and HM will probably keep tabs on his love-child Kirchner. Lambie there to cover as well and Frans Steyn? Well, not unless he changes things around.

EDIT:
So a possible if not probable squad of 30 (with a heavy bias on my personal preferences and not HM ):
Mtawarira, Oosthuizen, Mellett, L Adriaanse
Bismarck, Strauss, Brits
Etzebeth, PS du Toit, Kruger, L de Jager (have to back family!)
Alberts, Louw, Kolisi, Vermeulen, Botha, Brussow
Du Preez, Hougaard (I'm backing him to make a return in 2014)
Goosen, Lambie
Serfontein, Engelbrecht, JdV (well he doesn't like slowing down now..), Frans Steyn (I believe John Smit will get the best out of him back and his utility value is big)
JPP, Habana, Le Roux
Taute, Ludik

fringes:
JdP, Steenkamp, Malherbe
Chiliboy
Flippie
Labuschagne, Coetzee, *gulp* Spies, Burger,
Pretorius, Pienaar, Vermaak, Kockott, Van Zyl
Steyn, Jantjies
Jaque Fourie, JdJ
Kirchner
Who did I leave out?

 

[Peat]

Don't take this the wrong way, England:
but this side does seem to be at an all-time low on attack. I don't think England has ever been this unproductive. If it wasn't for Tuilagi, the record would be even more 'alarming'. England's won games, and that's the whole point, but not a single try scored at home on Italy, the Tuilagi one on France was illegal, nothing in the Grand Slam decider in Wales, nothing in Ireland...yes 4 tries on Scotland, but that's not exactly an achievement, just a good start to the tournament.

I feel like most of us are aware of this fact, and not very happy about it. There's the potential for change so plenty are hopeful as well but another season of the odd try fest punctuated by grinding misery might spark something of a revolt amongst fans.

 

[Big Ewis]

I feel like most of us are aware of this fact, and not very happy about it. There's the potential for change so plenty are hopeful as well but another season of the odd try fest punctuated by grinding misery might spark something of a revolt amongst fans.

Sure. Well for clarity's sake, what I'm saying is it would be fine if they were winning with ease. Just a couple of quick examples, the great 2003 England side: during the 6N that year we came to Twickers and went 3 tries to 1, but England still won because they had so much else going on. Same thing during the RWC semis that year, we score the one try during the game, but England wins easily: 24-7.

England are good, but don't have enough going on past their standard gameplan to be "that good". It showed a lot against Italy, France both at home, and in Ireland all they could do is play that style of theirs as hard as they could: no imagination, never menacing, intense and substantial but not "dangerous". Just collecting penalties and winning by a score divisible by 3. And in Wales, they got entirely figured out.

So I'm not saying they would be "prettier" and fancy with tries, I'm saying it's a dimension that is clearly lacking in their game that they ought to do smt about because they might run into a side one day like '13 6N Wales where tough forwards cancel theirs out, their scrum is useless and in fact a nuisance, and their attack is absolute zero. In a game like that, they could have used a strong attack, with well constructed sequences, fast smooth passing to at least, if not to score tries, put *real* pressure on the opposing defense and collect some Farrell 3pointers.
And I don't mean to "twist the blade in the wound" as we say in French, but just imagine if they didn't have Tuilagi.

I think Lancaster sees that according to what he's said, but how can England proceed: they MUST keep that strong defense and can't sacrifice it for more attack; i.e. he must find a way to keep his current lineup. England is all about big powerful forwards, a good no. 10 and then some backs who'll finish off the job. And to inject more attack, England has depth, England has other options, but those are not as solid on defense...
So I think, though I may be wrong, that's the dilemma for England.

And I would say they'll be fine come RWC time, but this would be a concern if I were English. Not a huge gaping hole in our national team, but a sizable concern. That whole dimension lacking.
God speed England, but don't get too good now !!

 

[j'nuh]

I feel that England are 6 - 10 years away from a genuine World Cup winning squad.

I think right now the squad is too young and too ordinary. We do not have 5 World Class players - it's debatable whether we have one - and I don't see 5 developing between now and the next World Cup.

I don't think we need to be entirely world class to win a tournament. Last year, in football, League 2 Bradford City (my home city) reached the finals of the Carling Cup, taking Arsenal, Aston Villa, Wigan and Watford as casualties!

I don't see this batch of players going into a WC as favourites, but I certainly think that if a few results went our way, or other teams picked up injuries, or we hit the right vein of form and NZ/SA are off, then we can certainly cause an upset (especially with home advantage!).

(But I think it'd only be 2017 onwards that this current batch of players hits their best (I certainly think we have a good proportion of Lions in 2017), although I doubt this team will ever get to number 1 in the world rankings.)

Equally... a pool with Wales and Australia in, I can see us not even reaching the knockouts...

 

[Aristodemus]

It is possible that we do not make it out of the group stage, but this team at home in my opinion should be favourites to take the #1 spot in our very tough group. As for the backline, like Peat said I think that we have been poor but we DO have the players to be exciting and creative. I also do not envisage that this group of players will go in as favourites for the WC but a couple of years down the line I expect we will have improved our standing (hopefully cementing a general opinion of the third best side in the world).

Now this selection issue/ideology does not seem to be shared by Lancaster despite his comments as he seems to prefer solid backs, and this is pretty much my only issue with him. To me, 10-12 is key and Farrell-Barritt is not good enough to cause international defences problems at the very top. I agree with Yoe in the fact that Tuilagi has almost single-handedly scored tries and won games because elsewhere it just hasn't happened. If we want players to be ready in 2015 like Burns at 10, 36/Eastmond at IC and Wade/Yarde/May on the wings then we need to get them starting now. Anyone but Goode too!

 

[big ginger 8]

I will wait to see how we get on under Joe but I'm optimistic we have talented players coming through who can play the game Schmidt wants. I'd say we have a good chance of reaching our first semi.

 

[j'nuh]

I will wait to see how we get on under Joe but I'm optimistic we have talented players coming through who can play the game Schmidt wants. I'd say we have a good chance of reaching our first semi.

Joe's good, but he can't work miracles.

jk, I'm actually worried Ireland will overtake England now.

 

[big ginger 8]

Joe's good, but he can't work miracles.

jk, I'm actually worried Ireland will overtake England now.

In Joe we trust.