Happyhooker2696
Academy Player
- Joined
- Jul 7, 2017
- Messages
- 1
I think it was Napoleon who, when asked what makes a great general, responded – "being lucky"!
Is Warren Gatland simply a lucky coach? Last weekend he got lucky big time. With little more than 25 minute gone Sonny Bill's indiscretion gave him the lifeline he needed. The series needed the Lions win, rugby needed the Lions win, but most would accept that without Sonny Bills departure the result and series would have gone the way of the All Blacks.
Gatland and his team have selected an unchanged team based purely on that northern hemisphere failing – emotion, rather than hard facts. He's rewarding the team for their performance, for the great job they did in showing fight and spirit to come back from 19 – 9 down to get the win. But was it such a great performance?
They were against 14 men for 55 minutes. The Lions pack barely held parity for most of that time against a seven man pack. The back row did well - but against a 2 man back row. Losing a world class 6 was a massive blow to the All Blacks. If Barrett had landed all his penalties the game would probably have been out of sight long before the Lions come back. If his grubber kick behind the Lions backline had gone straight instead of at an angle, Reid would have scored near the posts and even Barrett on the day would probably have got that kick – probably game over.
The hard facts show that the Lions scrum struggled in both tests – but no changes to the front row. Vunipola got it tight in the scrum and was reckless in both penalties. Probably lucky not to get a red card. But he's still there. Jones was poor in the first test and far from outstanding in the second. He's still there even though the stats show that, Henderson, Lawes and Kruiz have all out-performed him throughout the series. Gatland hung Henderson out to dry when he got the yellow card and it would seem this cost him a place in the match day 23. Was that just the excuse he needed to keep Jones in-situ? Hansen, to his credit, didn't do the same to Sonny Bill. Kruiz and O'Mahony suffered similar fates after the first test despite outstanding series to date. The talented Lions backline couldn't get going because they couldn't get go forward ball for a large proportion of the game. The Lions pack couldn't dominate, even against 7 men and a 2 man All Black back row.
If the Lions hadn't got that fortunate penalty at the end and it had ended in a draw the team would have been slated for not being able to put away a 14 man All Blacks. If the hosts had taken their chances during their dominance, leading to ignominious defeat, the clamour for change would have been deafening. Same performance over 80 minutes, same personnel, a fortunate penalty. On such small margins people are either heroes or villains. Selection must be based on facts not emotion. You've got to think Hansen wouldn't have selected an unchanged Lions team were he in charge.
Gatland has form in the luck department. Four years ago in Australia they won a test series against a less than vintage Wallabies team. The final test was finely balanced until Connor Murray came on for Mike Philips. A lot of people felt Murray should have started but Gatland went with Philips whose service was slow and ponderous. Murray swung the game and the rest is history. Some will argue it was great management by Gatland – perfect tactics. Or was it just luck and poor selection in the first place?
The All Blacks are ruthless in selection. No room for emotion or past reputation. And assuming they can maintain a full team we have to fear the Blacklash will come this weekend. I fear Gatland has missed a chance to make the necessary changes and the Lions will pay the consequences.
Will his luck finally run out?
Is Warren Gatland simply a lucky coach? Last weekend he got lucky big time. With little more than 25 minute gone Sonny Bill's indiscretion gave him the lifeline he needed. The series needed the Lions win, rugby needed the Lions win, but most would accept that without Sonny Bills departure the result and series would have gone the way of the All Blacks.
Gatland and his team have selected an unchanged team based purely on that northern hemisphere failing – emotion, rather than hard facts. He's rewarding the team for their performance, for the great job they did in showing fight and spirit to come back from 19 – 9 down to get the win. But was it such a great performance?
They were against 14 men for 55 minutes. The Lions pack barely held parity for most of that time against a seven man pack. The back row did well - but against a 2 man back row. Losing a world class 6 was a massive blow to the All Blacks. If Barrett had landed all his penalties the game would probably have been out of sight long before the Lions come back. If his grubber kick behind the Lions backline had gone straight instead of at an angle, Reid would have scored near the posts and even Barrett on the day would probably have got that kick – probably game over.
The hard facts show that the Lions scrum struggled in both tests – but no changes to the front row. Vunipola got it tight in the scrum and was reckless in both penalties. Probably lucky not to get a red card. But he's still there. Jones was poor in the first test and far from outstanding in the second. He's still there even though the stats show that, Henderson, Lawes and Kruiz have all out-performed him throughout the series. Gatland hung Henderson out to dry when he got the yellow card and it would seem this cost him a place in the match day 23. Was that just the excuse he needed to keep Jones in-situ? Hansen, to his credit, didn't do the same to Sonny Bill. Kruiz and O'Mahony suffered similar fates after the first test despite outstanding series to date. The talented Lions backline couldn't get going because they couldn't get go forward ball for a large proportion of the game. The Lions pack couldn't dominate, even against 7 men and a 2 man All Black back row.
If the Lions hadn't got that fortunate penalty at the end and it had ended in a draw the team would have been slated for not being able to put away a 14 man All Blacks. If the hosts had taken their chances during their dominance, leading to ignominious defeat, the clamour for change would have been deafening. Same performance over 80 minutes, same personnel, a fortunate penalty. On such small margins people are either heroes or villains. Selection must be based on facts not emotion. You've got to think Hansen wouldn't have selected an unchanged Lions team were he in charge.
Gatland has form in the luck department. Four years ago in Australia they won a test series against a less than vintage Wallabies team. The final test was finely balanced until Connor Murray came on for Mike Philips. A lot of people felt Murray should have started but Gatland went with Philips whose service was slow and ponderous. Murray swung the game and the rest is history. Some will argue it was great management by Gatland – perfect tactics. Or was it just luck and poor selection in the first place?
The All Blacks are ruthless in selection. No room for emotion or past reputation. And assuming they can maintain a full team we have to fear the Blacklash will come this weekend. I fear Gatland has missed a chance to make the necessary changes and the Lions will pay the consequences.
Will his luck finally run out?