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Moneyball In Rugby

GarethGriffiths

Academy Player
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I'm sure that there's more than a few clubs out there using this method.

Which clubs do you think are using Moneyball in the best ways?
 
All clubs are to an extent using this. It's about finding value where others don't. Look at the huge number of South Africa forwards dotted around Europe, Fijian wingers and Georgian props in France. Why overpay for indigenous players when you can pick up better, cheaper players elsewhere.

If looking for an individual moneyball signing that's worked well this season, John Cooney is a good example. Ulster were resigned to losing Ruan Pienaar, one of the top scrum halves around. They replaced him with Connacht's 27 year old backup scrum half who had 15 starts in the previous 3 seasons. He's gone on to be Ulster's primary goalkicker and arguably only Jacob Stockdale has played better for them this season.

As for a team who used it well, Scarlets saw value in Rhys Patchell, Johnny McNicholl, Hadleigh Parkes and Tadhg Beirne when others didn't. It brought them a Pro12 ***le last season.
 
All clubs are to an extent using this. It's about finding value where others don't. Look at the huge number of South Africa forwards dotted around Europe, Fijian wingers and Georgian props in France. Why overpay for indigenous players when you can pick up better, cheaper players elsewhere.

If looking for an individual moneyball signing that's worked well this season, John Cooney is a good example. Ulster were resigned to losing Ruan Pienaar, one of the top scrum halves around. They replaced him with Connacht's 27 year old backup scrum half who had 15 starts in the previous 3 seasons. He's gone on to be Ulster's primary goalkicker and arguably only Jacob Stockdale has played better for them this season.

As for a team who used it well, Scarlets saw value in Rhys Patchell, Johnny McNicholl, Hadleigh Parkes and Tadhg Beirne when others didn't. It brought them a Pro12 ***le last season.

Unless you know more about the reason that those signings were made than you've mentioned, they don't necessarily represent Sabremetrics. They could just as easily be a case of a coach having an eye for talent and the balls to take a risk. Given the profile that the 2011 New Zealand team gave this, I'm amazed that we haven't heard more about it than we have. Saying that, the nature of the beast is that this only works if you hold an information advantage over others in the market place. Anyone smart enough to put the Sabremetrics principles to use in a rugby context would obviously be bright enough to realise this and be guarded with their trade secrets.
 
To add to Snoops point in Ireland it is common. 1 guy could be a flop in 1 province yet look the real deal in another.
I'd like to think CJ Stander was a real moneyball signing. Was told at home by the powers that be he'd never make it too far as a back rower as he was too small and well he was picked up here and well rest is history. Yes most saw his talent but just as a comeback from what he was told to where he is.
 
Unless you know more about the reason that those signings were made than you've mentioned, they don't necessarily represent Sabremetrics. They could just as easily be a case of a coach having an eye for talent and the balls to take a risk. Given the profile that the 2011 New Zealand team gave this, I'm amazed that we haven't heard more about it than we have. Saying that, the nature of the beast is that this only works if you hold an information advantage over others in the market place. Anyone smart enough to put the Sabremetrics principles to use in a rugby context would obviously be bright enough to realise this and be guarded with their trade secrets.
All I can do is subjectively peak at examples of players who have looked better than most would have anticipated since moving teams. Could be gut instinct of coaches, could be analysis. Only those involved in making those decisions will truly know.

If we're to take the Billy Beane phrase "we're not selling jeans here", Chris Cloete fits the bill as a possible moneyball signing. A 5'9" tall flanker would be considered by most to be too small. He came through Sri Lankan pro rugby and a couple of unglamourous South African Currie Cup teams to become an important member of the Munster team turning in excellent performances whenever he plays. Munster saw value where others in Europe didn't. Maybe it's great scouting and gut instinct from Munster scouts which brought him to the south west of Ireland, maybe it's excellent work by their performance analysts or maybe it's a combination of both.
 
I got the feeling this works very well in baseball and sports that have a lot of rules and measurable things but not for all sports. Baseball, while being a team sport relies heavily on 1 on 1 performances(batter against pitcher). Football and rugby have those moments but is heavily shadowed by team cohesion and overall effort.

What would the hidden stats be in rugby that you could not pick on video?
 
Dave Rennie used this very effectively for the Chiefs when he took over in 2012 - brought in a whole bunch of relatively no-name players who were doing the business for their provincial teams.

What I find particularly interesting is that there are many stats we don't get to see as regular punters - stats such as breakdowns hit, tackles contributed to etc.
 
All I can do is subjectively peak at examples of players who have looked better than most would have anticipated since moving teams. Could be gut instinct of coaches, could be analysis. Only those involved in making those decisions will truly know.

If we're to take the Billy Beane phrase "we're not selling jeans here", Chris Cloete fits the bill as a possible moneyball signing. A 5'9" tall flanker would be considered by most to be too small. He came through Sri Lankan pro rugby and a couple of unglamourous South African Currie Cup teams to become an important member of the Munster team turning in excellent performances whenever he plays. Munster saw value where others in Europe didn't. Maybe it's great scouting and gut instinct from Munster scouts which brought him to the south west of Ireland, maybe it's excellent work by their performance analysts or maybe it's a combination of both.

The popular media has picked up on the "jeans" quote, but again, it doesn't necessarily mean that we're referring to Sabremetrics here, just that it has thinking outside the accepted norms in common with Sabremetrics. There are a few on these forums who seem to have a bit of insider info, I wasn't sure if you were one of them, hence my comment. As you say, the rest of us can only speculate. My suspicion re: Chris Cloete is that good scouting combined with the fact that in the grand scheme of Munster's budget it represented a 50p each way punt on a 100/1 shot for the National - you look great if it comes off, if it doesn't nobody cares too much. Also, my view would be that performance analysts are focused almost exclusively on the existing team, not potential signings. My replies to a couple of other posts will expand on this when I have a chance to make them!
 
it's important to note that moneyball is not necessarily building a team through analytics* but rather through attacking inefficiencies in the market by valuing players and tactics differently than others. The hope is that everyone else would undervalue your roster and therefore you would outperform. In recent years, moneyball has shifted away towards analytics since analytics have become overvalued.

I'm sure that both have been used extensively at the elite level of rugby.

Analytics:
Every team probably has a chart for PKs that tells them whether they should kick to touch, for points, or opt for a scrum,
Most probably have the expected value for certain actions in certain parts of the field, e.g, whether to keep running the ball or to kick it.

Moneyball:
Signing players that are just below international level since you get more games from them.
Signing players from countries that play less internationals or that don't select players who play in other domestic leagues. (Ironically, having a policy that you don't select foreign-based players makes your players more attractive to foreign leagues.)
Signing players who don't fit the traditional body type (Conor Murray and Chris Cloete for example).

*SABRmetrics refers specifically to baseball (Society of American Baseball Researchers)
 
It's an interesting idea Moneyball finding value in areas people do not. The infamous one that got the ball rolling in was in baseball and valuing a players ability to get on base over thier ture position like a pitcher.

I certainly can cite one example in cricket certainly in the 1st Class and Test arena is an openers ability to face x balls before loosing thier wicket this taking the shine of the ball. It use to be very valued but now people are more interested in how many runs they score or their strike which is far more suited to white ball formats.

In rugby for example we over value a kickers kicking % massively as noted in the last 6 nations or the one before that the difference between George Ford and Owen Farrell is only 3pts/game but we state we have to play Farrell because he is statistically a better kicker.

As noted above analytics has less real use in Rugby and other team based sports which can not be split down into a series of 1v1 duels. Something someone did very minorly 2 phases ago can provide the spark to a games winning moment. How do you break that down to a raw number? How when that player is taken out do you not factor in the other 14 players?
 
Exeter would be the best example imo. Not many big name players but as a team they are one of the best in europe.

I'm not that familiar with them but to me they look like they recruit players who are good all rounders, with few weaknesses.
 
With the exception of the odd big contract on a Giteau or Pocock the Brumbies and Force used to have to do a lot of this in Australian Super Rugby.

They pulled away some of the grass roots developmental player rules that the Brumbies used to full force which eventually gave the national squad guys like Jesse Mogg, Scott Fardy and Scott Sio so its now harder... but they still pluck rejected guys from other squads and overlooked players and make it work... Tom Banks, Aidan Toua immediately spring to mind.

...and Joe Powell who was working on the construction site when he was still in his early days with the Brumbies as the third scrum half option.
 

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