Relative conference performance

[TRF_stormer2010]

So I got into a debate with my brother-in-law who said that the Aus team were dominating this year and the SA teams have been doing terrible. I told him the Aus teams having an early start should be taken into account but that didn't convince him that his statement wasn't fact.

So I'm asking what is the best way or good ways to determine relative conference performance at any given stage? IE what should I show my brother-in-law? I did a quick games won/games played and was surprised at how badly the Aus teams as a conference have done up till now (probably because of the surprise win of the Rebels over the Stormers in my mind).

Games won / Games played


SA 32/62 = 51.6%


NZ 30/61 = 49.2%


Aus 30/67 = 44.8%

Of course this does not factor in that SA teams are **** at securing bonus points. Another factor of course is that of the draws so far the Aussies have featured in most.

 

[TRF_heineken]

So I got into a debate with my brother-in-law who said that the Aus team were dominating this year and the SA teams have been doing terrible. I told him the Aus teams having an early start should be taken into account but that didn't convince him that his statement wasn't fact.

So I'm asking what is the best way or good ways to determine relative conference performance at any given stage? IE what should I show my brother-in-law? I did a quick games won/games played and was surprised at how badly the Aus teams as a conference have done up till now (probably because of the surprise win of the Rebels over the Stormers in my mind).

Games won / Games played


SA 32/62 = 51.6%


NZ 30/61 = 49.2%


Aus 30/67 = 44.8%

Of course this does not factor in that SA teams are **** at securing bonus points. Another factor of course is that of the draws so far the Aussies have featured in most.

I think there is not a relative way of sorting this problem out until the playoffs start. The numbers are all deurmekaar now!

But even if we take one game away from the Aussie teams, based on your stats, it will leave them with a maximum of 30/62 = 48.3% Then they are still below the SA and NZ conference.

With that said, the Aussies already had most of their derbies, with the SA and NZ conference only finishing the first round of Derbies last week. The Sharks and Bulls met each other for the first time last week, and will meet again in a fortnight...

Only when the derbies are done, can we have a good comparison. With that said, based on the SA teams all winning a game when they were on tour, while some teams that toured SA didn't win at all, should be an indication that the SA teams have made a huge step-up...

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

I think there is not a relative way of sorting this problem out until the playoffs start. The numbers are all deurmekaar now!

But even if we take one game away from the Aussie teams, based on your stats, it will leave them with a maximum of 30/62 = 48.3% Then they are still below the SA and NZ conference.

With that said, the Aussies already had most of their derbies, with the SA and NZ conference only finishing the first round of Derbies last week. The Sharks and Bulls met each other for the first time last week, and will meet again in a fortnight...

Only when the derbies are done, can we have a good comparison. With that said, based on the SA teams all winning a game when they were on tour, while some teams that toured SA didn't win at all, should be an indication that the SA teams have made a huge step-up...

Except for the Sharks and Stormers but I blame massive injury llists and thus zero consistency plus just bad luck for most of that. The Chiefs have had to dig quite deep into the barrel because of injuries as well though and are sitting at the top so it's hard to blame the injuries completely!

 

[TRF_heineken]

Except for the Sharks and Stormers but I blame massive injury llists and thus zero consistency plus just bad luck for most of that. The Chiefs have had to dig quite deep into the barrel because of injuries as well though and are sitting at the top so it's hard to blame the injuries completely!

even with their injuries, they managed to win a game on tour... Hell, even the Kings won a game on tour...

 

[ZeFrenchy]

Maybe points/games while considering only games against other conferences.

 

[TRF_heineken]

Maybe points/games while considering only games against other conferences.

Haha!!

yeah that would **** off the NZ'ers...

The Aussies have been smashing the NZ teams often this year...

 

[nadoss]

yeah you can't include games when they're playing themselves, that just squashes all the stats.

 

[Larksea]

just telly PD for each table, obviously the result for any inner conference game = 0 only games against other conferences create a non zero result.

SA = -14
NZ = +53
AU = -39

to check it total should = 0

I think a good indicator of relative conference strength.

 

[nadoss]

just telly PD for each table, obviously the result for any inner conference game = 0 only games against other conferences create a non zero result.

SA = -14
NZ = +53
AU = -39

to check it total should = 0

I think a good indicator of relative conference strength.

solid indicator.

 

[squid]

That's good for working out point scoring ability but allows outliers to blow out the score. Eg. Kings v tahs 10-72 sharks v rebels 64-7. Crusaders v kings 55-20. Chiefs v cheetahs 45-3. It's interesting to see how the cheetahs and rebels have turned it around. How about just taking out all derbys and working out the points table?

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

just telly PD for each table, obviously the result for any inner conference game = 0 only games against other conferences create a non zero result.

SA = -14
NZ = +53
AU = -39

to check it total should = 0

I think a good indicator of relative conference strength.

I don't think this is much better than what I have; just as an example the Cheetahs and Sharks are both at +33 but the Cheetahs have 3 more wins while the Sharks and Hurricanes are equal on wins but the Sharks are 79 points clear of the Hurricanes on points difference; my point being that I'd call the Sharks equal to the Hurricanes rather than the Cheetahs so far this year and the win/loss is closer to the mark than points differential as an indicator.

I'll probably work out the win/loss ratio without derbies like mentioned by Squid over the weekend. I just think its great for SR that the conferences have been tighter this year than in previous years. Probably because the Aussie players have extra motivation in earning a spot against the B&I Lions.

 

[TRF_heineken]

I don't think this is much better than what I have; just as an example the Cheetahs and Sharks are both at +33 but the Cheetahs have 3 more wins while the Sharks and Hurricanes are equal on wins but the Sharks are 79 points clear of the Hurricanes on points difference; my point being that I'd call the Sharks equal to the Hurricanes rather than the Cheetahs so far this year and the win/loss is closer to the mark than points differential as an indicator.

I'll probably work out the win/loss ratio without derbies like mentioned by Squid over the weekend. I just think its great for SR that the conferences have been tighter this year than in previous years. Probably because the Aussie players have extra motivation in earning a spot against the B&I Lions.

Yeah, I don't think that the Points differential should be used as a measurement of performance for teams... Because some teams don't score a lot of points, but they grind out wins. Some teams aren't as flashy as other teams in gameplay, but they do what they can, to win the match.

So I would say, measure the teams purely on how they played against teams from other conferences, seperate the home/away matches from each other, get 2 percentiles, one for home games, and one for away games, and then measure it up to one another...

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

Okay, here it is. Shockingly it came out as NZ 1st, slightly SA 2nd and Aus 3rd!!!!!

So this pretty much shows the IRB rankings are in line and Aus being slightly further behind is a reflection of poor depth. There is an inter-conference match still to be played though but as it stands this is how the conferences took points off of each other (wins and any BPs):

Conf. + - =


NZ 99 95 +4
SA 92 89 +3
Aus 87 94 -7


Remaining inter-conference fixture


Rebels vs Highlanders

PS; +rep me because this took me damn while!!

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

Conf. + - =


SA 92 89 +3
NZ 101 100 +1
Aus 92 96 -4

Interesting to see that NZ scored 9 more points off of other franchises but conceded the most by far as well. SA team really need to start earning Bonus points in this competition.

 

[Larksea]

final conf P/D

SA +9
NZ +23
AU -32

pretty close, NZ 1, SA 2, AU 3

I kinda get the overall feeling like in general NZ have struggled against Aussie teams, Aussie have struggled against SA teams and SA teams have struggled against NZ teams

kinda like paper scissors rock. I got no stats to support that though you know I'm too lazy for that.

 

[smartcooky]

Conf. + - =


SA 92 89 +3
NZ 101 100 +1
Aus 92 96 -4

Interesting to see that NZ scored 9 more points off of other franchises but conceded the most by far as well. SA team really need to start earning Bonus points in this competition.

They can to that by scoring more tries, and to do that, they need to run the ball more.

 

[Larksea]

They can to that by scoring more tries, and to do that, they need to run the ball more.

you mean take more risks, that's not really how the South African teams play, well apart from the cheetahs, you do wonder if Cheetahs success will maybe spark some change in the other Teams.

 

[smartcooky]

you mean take more risks, that's not really how the South African teams play, well apart from the cheetahs, you do wonder if Cheetahs success will maybe spark some change in the other Teams.

Yeah, take more risks. Its taken them three years of playing like that.

Kicking 6 penalty goals wont get you bonus points. Just for interest's sake, here is the table with no bonus points

Same top six. Only real difference is the Bulls instead of the Chiefs at the top of the table (No. of wins the same, so its on points difference)

 

[Larksea]

heh, highlanders dead last on that table, thank the stars for bonus points... Almost 1/3 of the highlanders points are bonus points!?