Rugby World Cup 2019 predictions

[TRF_stormer2010]

Well, AC only has the France tour to turn things around, otherwise he's gone.

The 30 cap rule is a good rule. And it now makes the choice of either selecting the local youngster or the overseas experienced players. Which I think will provide a good balance to our team. Players like Bismarck, Frans Steyn, Francois Hougaard, Francois Louw, JP Pietersen and others could still be called upon.

Will he be gone though? I'll only believe it when I see it. And its France on tour after the T14 and Euro's. A clean sweep should actually not be up for debate.

As for selecting overseas based players... I don't think its ideal at all. Our players aren't fit enough as is. Those guys' experience is invaluable but we need that experience in our own SR sides so that these guys are playing alongside and tutoring the youngsters they'll be playing alongside with for the Bokke and keeping themselves fit in SR, getting used to each other as individuals and on the same page from a game style perspective, not one of which we will get if our experienced players are all overseas and our players are based across 20 teams and 4 tournaments rather than 4/5 teams in SR with the same approach broadly speaking.

 

[mania]

we lost to Japan and then pushed NZ to 2 points in the SF

i was definitely more worried in the semi's than i was in the finals.
i hope SA get out of this rut. really need the boks to be their brutal best

 

[Ospervat]

Pool A
1st Ireland
2nd Japan
3rd Scotland
4th Tonga
5th Romania

Pool B
1st South Africa
2nd New Zealand
3rdItaly
4thNamibia
5thGermany

Pool c
1st England
2nd France
3rdArgentina
4Fiji
5th USA

Pool D
1stWales
2 Australia
3rdSamoa
4th Georgia
5th Canada

Quarter finals
South Africa vs Japan 47-19
England's vs Australia 35-23
Wales vs France 25-18
Ireland vs New Zealand 21-39

Semi final
South Africa vs England 25-21
Wales vs New Zealand 23-47

3rd Place playoff
Wales vs England 18-32

Final
South Africa vs new Zealand 28-22

South Africa to win

What's your guys predictions

Please send me some of that stuff you're smoking.

 

[Ground We Won]

New Zealand vs Ireland final if the Irish don't choke. Hope they don't, they always sell themselves short at the world cup.

 

[Ospervat]

Pool A
1st Ireland
2nd Japan
3rd Scotland
4th Tonga
5th Romania

Pool B
1st South Africa
2nd New Zealand
3rdItaly
4thNamibia
5thGermany

Pool c
1st England
2nd France
3rdArgentina
4Fiji
5th USA

Pool D
1stWales
2 Australia
3rdSamoa
4th Georgia
5th Canada

Quarter finals
South Africa vs Japan 47-19
England's vs Australia 35-23
Wales vs France 25-18
Ireland vs New Zealand 21-39

Semi final
South Africa vs England 25-21
Wales vs New Zealand 23-47

3rd Place playoff
Wales vs England 18-32

Final
South Africa vs new Zealand 28-22

South Africa to win

What's your guys predictions

Please send me some of that stuff you're smoking.

 

[Ospervat]

Pool A
1st Ireland
2nd Scotland
3rd Japan

Pool B
1st New Zealand
2nd South Africa
3rd Italy

Pool c
1st England
2nd Argentina
3rd France

Pool D
1st Australia
2 Wales
3rd Georgia

Quarter finals
NZ bt Scotland
England bt Wales
Australia bt Argentina
Ireland bt South Africa

Semi final
England bt NZ
Australia bt Ireland

3rd Place playoff
NZ bt Ireland

Final
England bt Australia

England to win

 

[Caitlyn Jenner]

Semi final
England bt NZ
Australia bt Ireland

3rd Place playoff
NZ bt Ireland

Final
England bt Australia

England to win

England beat NZ? Please send me some of that stuff you're smoking

 

[ncurd]

England beat NZ? Please send me some of that stuff you're smoking

If England aren't capable of doing it in 2 years, who are? If you're going to make a prediction where NZ don't win the world cup you have to select someone to beat them.

 

[Ospervat]

England beat NZ? Please send me some of that stuff you're smoking

OK.
If there is one thing I've learned after 2015 - never underestimate the Japanese.
So I'll swop around Japan and Scotland in Pool A.
Japan to beat NZ in the quarters.
Now I'm really into the good stuff!

 

[Caitlyn Jenner]

OK.
If there is one thing I've learned after 2015 - never underestimate the Japanese.
So I'll swop around Japan and Scotland in Pool A.
Japan to beat NZ in the quarters.
Now I'm really into the good stuff!

That's more like it

 

[TobyTeague2015]

Pool A:
1st - Ireland
2nd -Scotland (Would love to see Japan sneak it)

Pool B:
1st - New Zealand
2nd - South Africa (Hopefully they sort their s*** out, otherwise Italy)

Pool C:
1st - England
2nd - Argentina

Pool D:
1st - Wales
2nd - Australia (Could just as easily go the other way, would love to see Georgia take out Oz)

Quarters:
Ireland vs South Africa - Ireland
New Zealand vs Scotland - New Zealand
England vs Australia - England
Wales vs Argentina - Argentina

Semis:
Ireland vs Argentina - Ireland
New Zealand vs England - New Zealand

Final:
Ireland vs New Zealand - New Zealand

Champions:
New Zealand

 

[Brigantine]

Filling in the blanks with the expected qualifiers, and current WRR points (* - with 3 points added to Japan due to home advantage):

Pool A:

Ireland (4th - 84.66)
Scotland (5th - 82.18
Japan - Host (10th* - 77.22*) (Without the bonus they're 11th - 74.22)
Tonga (13th, 71.94)
Romania (16th, 70.15)​

Pool B:

New Zealand (1st - 94.78)
South Africa (7th - 81.79)
Italy (15th - 71.17)
Spain/Russia/Canada/Uruguay (Spain is 18th - 63.05)
Namibia (19th - 62.78)​

Pool C:

England (2nd - 89.53)
France (6th - 82.00)
Argentina (9th - 79.91)
Samoa (14th - 71.25)
USA (17th - 66.79)​

Pool D:

Australia (3rd - 86.35)
Wales (8th - 81.36)
Fiji (11th* - 76.46)
Georgia (12th - 72.92)
Uruguay/Canada (Uruguay is 21st - 61.24)​

Closest races for 1st in Pool:

1st: Pool A Ireland vs Scotland (2.48 point difference)
2nd: Pool D Australia vs Wales (4.99 point difference)

Pool A Ireland vs Japan - 7.44 point difference - Toughest Pool for top seed​

3rd: Pool C England vs France (7.53 point difference)

Pool C England vs Argentina - 9.62 point difference
Pool D Australia vs Fiji - 9.89 point difference​

4th: Pool B New Zealand vs South Africa (12.99 point difference)​

Closest races to qualify for QFs:

1st: Pool C France vs Argentina (2.09 point difference) - Pool of Death
2nd: Pool D Wales vs Fiji (4.90 point difference)
3rd: Pool A Scotland vs Japan (4.96 point difference)

Pool D Wales vs Georgia - 9.62 point difference​

4th: Pool B South Africa vs Italy (10.62 point difference)​

Closest races for RWC 2023 Automatic Qualification:

1st: Pool D Fiji vs Georgia (3.54 point difference) - It's more likely no Pacific countries will qualify for 2023 automatically (again), than 2 or all of them qualifying
2nd: Pool A Japan vs Tonga (5.28 point difference)
3rd: Pool B Italy vs Spain (8.12 point difference)

Pool A Japan vs Romania - 7.07 point difference
Pool B Italy vs Namibia - 8.39 point difference​

4th: Pool C Argentina vs Samoa (8.66 point difference)​

For a more serious, naive prediction: (based on WRR right now)
* = high potential for an upset given current rankings.
** = high subjective potential for an upset despite current rankings. (*! = subjectively I expect the naive prediction to be <50% likely)

Continental Qualifying:

PNC 2017 1st - Fiji (76.46) easily hold on to their lead - Oceania 1 - RWC Pool D
*! PNC 2017 2nd - Tonga (71.94) wins their home game vs Samoa (71.25) by 8+ to overcome their 3 point deficit from 2016. Oceania 2 - RWC Pool C
PNC 2017 3rd - Samoa (71.25) drop to 3rd in the table - Oceania 3 - Qualifying Play-Off vs Europe 2

REC 2018 2nd - Romania (70.15) easily hold on to their lead - Europe 1 - RWC Pool A
*REC 2018 3rd - Spain (63.05) lose the game in Russia (62.40) but finish ahead in the table thanks to a 3 point lead in 2017 and an extra bonus point or higher points differential. REC 2 - Qualifying Play-Offs.

USA vs Canada H&A Play-Offs 2017 1st - USA (66.79) easily beat the out-of-form Canada (59.63) - Americas 1 - RWC Pool C
USA vs Canada H&A Play-Offs 2017 2nd - Canada (59.63) as North America 2 proceed to the Qualifying Play-Off vs South America 1

*Africa Rugby Gold Cup 2018 1st - Namibia (62.78). Africa 1 - RWC Pool B
Africa Rugby Gold Cup 2018 2nd - Kenya (24th - 59.28) face little other opposition. ARGC 2 - Qualifying Play-Off vs ARSC 1

South America Rugby Cup "A" 2017 1st - Uruguay (61.24) will finish well ahead of Chile (29th - 53.91) and Brazil (31st - 53.45). South America 1 - Qualifying Play-Off vs North America 2

*Asian Rugby Championship 2018 1st - Hong Kong (26th - 56.50) is narrowly favoured over Korea (28th - 55.50). Asia 1 - Qualifying Play-Off vs Oceania 4
The 3rd team in this competition will not be Japan, but rather the winner of ARC Division 1 2017 - probably Sri Lanka (41st - 48.71) or Malaysia (54th - 45.55).

*! Africa Rugby Silver Cup 2017 1st - Madagascar (46th - 47.73), Morocco (49th - 46.48) and Ivory Coast (52nd - 45.66) win all their home games and finish on 4 wins each, but Madagascar gets there on Bonus Points. ARSC 1 - Qualifying Play-Off vs ARGC 2.

**Oceania Nations Cup 2017 1st - Cook Islands (47th - 47.11). Oceania 4 - Qualifying Play-Off vs Asia 1

Qualifying Play-Offs:

*Rugby Europe Conference 2 Final 2017 - Hungary (75th - 37.70) with a better record in their pool get home advantage, and narrowly beat Bosnia (68th - 39.34). RECf2 W - Qualifying Play-Off vs RECf1 W
Rugby Europe Conference 1 Final 2017 - Czechia (33rd - 52.87) with home advantage comfortably beat Malta (43rd - 48.05). RECf1 1 - Qualifying Play-Off vs RECf2 1
RECf1 W vs RECf2 W - Czechia (33rd - 52.87) run up a cricket score against Hungary (75th - 37.70). RECf1/2 W - Qualifying Play-Off vs RET 1
**RET 1 vs RECf1/2 W - Portugal (23rd - 59.55) easily beats Czechia (33rd - 52.87). RET/Cf W - Qualifying Play-Off vs REC 2
**REC 2 vs RET/Cf W - Spain (63.05) comfortably beat Portugal (23rd - 59.55). Europe 2 - Qualifying Play-Off vs Oceania 3

Oceania 3 vs Europe 2 - Samoa (71.25) easily beats Spain (63.05). Play-Off Winner - RWC Pool A
Loser - Spain (63.05) progresses to the Repechage Tournament
(Possibly Tonga instead of Samoa)

*! North America 2 vs South America 1 - (H&A 2018) Uruguay (61.24) is currently favoured over Canada (59.63). Americas 2 - RWC Pool D
Loser - Canada (59.63) progresses to the Repechage Tournament

ARGC 2 vs ARSC 1 - Kenya (24th - 59.28) easily beats Madagascar (46th - 47.73). Africa 2 - Repechage Tournament

Asia 1 vs Oceania 4 - Hong Kong (26th - 56.50) comfortably beats Cook Islands (47th - 47.11). Asia/Oceania 4 - Repechage Tournament

Repechage Tournament:

*! 1st - Spain (63.05) - Repechage Winner - RWC Pool B
2nd - Canada (59.63) or possibly Uruguay (61.24)
3rd - Kenya (24th - 59.28)
4th - Hong Kong (26th - 56.50)

All 6 games will be competitive (WRR point differential of 6.55 or less, at a neutral venue). On current rankings, there would be a 33% chance of Canada beating Spain, a 31% chance of Kenya beating Spain, and a 17% chance of Hong Kong beating Spain. If Canada becomes Americas 2 and Uruguay is Americas 3, there would be a 41% chance of Uruguay beating Spain.

Not a single one of the teams participating is very certain. Europe 2 could be Russia* or Portugal**, Americas 3 could be Uruguay*!, Africa 2 could be Namibia*, and Asia/Oceania 4 could be Korea*
I expect Canada's ranking will return to closer to where they usually are at 18th/19th, so they will either trade places with Uruguay in RWC Pool D, or they will be very competitive in the Repechage Tournament. Spain's ranking is right at their peak, and I don't think they will be as favoured by the time the Repechage Tournament starts.

Ultimately, the Repechage Winner is a real wild card - Even the favourite has IMO less than a 40% chance at this stage of taking that spot. I expect even by the time it starts that figure will be under 50%.

 

[Brigantine]

Pool Stage:

Pool A: Ireland* (84.66) > Scotland* (82.18) > Japan (77.22 incl HA) > Samoa* (71.25) > Romania (70.15)
Pool B: New Zealand (94.78) > South Africa (81.79) > Italy (71.17) > Spain *! (63.05) > Namibia (19th - 62.78)
Pool C: England (89.53) > France* (82.00) > Argentina (79.91) > Tonga** (71.94) > USA (17th - 66.79)
Pool D: Australia* (86.35) > Wales* (81.36) > Fiji* (76.46) > Georgia (72.92) > Uruguay (61.24)

Chance of upsets for 1st in Pool:
Pool A - 31% (combination of 37% Scotland to beat Ireland and 75% Scotland to beat Japan, and 3% for Japan to beat both)
Pool B - 0% (The WRR point difference is over 10 points. Not realistic, but it's what I'm working with)
Pool C - 8% (12% France to beat England, 60% France to beat Argentina, 1% Argentina to beat both)
Pool D - 17% (25% Wales to beat Australia, 69% Wales to beat Fiji and Georgia, 0.1% Fiji to beat both)

RWC 2023 Automatic Qualification: Tier 1 and Japan are all safe, Fiji are favourites but Georgia may hold on. Samoa, Tonga and all others have poor chances.

The match in Pool B between the 4th and 5th seeds will very likely be historic. The naive prediction favours Spain to claim their first ever RWC victory, but I prefer Namibia's chances. Other countries with a high potential to achieve this here are Russia* (62.40), Portugal** (59.55) and Kenya* (59.28).
The only real way we won't end up with a new (20th) RWC match winner, is if Americas 3 wins the Repechage Tournament and then beats Africa 1. Canada and Uruguay have both won RWC games in the past.

Knock-Out Stage:

QF Scenarios 1-8: No upsets for 1st in Pool (53% Chance regardless of qualifiers)

New Zealand > Scotland / Japan (Chance of Upset: 0% / 0%)
England > Wales / Fiji (Chance of Upset: 9% / 0% - 6% average)
Australia* > France / Argentina (Chance of Upset: 28% / 18% - 24% average)
Ireland* > South Africa (Chance of Upset: 36%)
QF Scenarios 9-16: Scotland tops Pool A (22% Chance)

New Zealand > Ireland / Japan (Chance of Upset: 0% / 0%)
England > Wales / Fiji (Chance of Upset: 9% / 0% - 6% average)
Australia* > France / Argentina (Chance of Upset: 28% / 18% - 24% average)
Scotland*! > South Africa (Chance of Upset: 48%)

SF Scenario 1 / 2: (24% / 22% Chance considering only QF Scn 1-16)

New Zealand** > England (Chance of Upset: 24%)
Australia* > Ireland / South Africa (Chance of Upset: 42% / 27% - 35% average)
SF Scenario 3: Scotland wins QF 4 (8% Chance considering only QF Scn 9-16)

New Zealand** > England (Chance of Upset: 24%)
Australia* > Scotland (Chance of Upset: 29%)

SF Scenario 4 / 5: Australia loses QF 3 (7% / 3% Chance considering only QF Scn 1-8)

New Zealand** > England (Chance of Upset: 24%)
Ireland* > France / Argentina (Chance of Upset: 37% / 26% - 34% average)

Bronze Final Scenarios: (Considering only SF Scn 1-5)

Scn 1 (14% Chance) - England* > Australia (Chance of Upset: 34%)
Scn 2 (13% Chance) - England* > Ireland (Chance of Upset: 26%)
Scn 3 (12% Chance) - England > South Africa (Chance of Upset: 11%)
Scn 4 (5% Chance) - New Zealand > Australia (Chance of Upset: 8%)
Scn 5 (4% Chance) - England* > Scotland (Chance of Upset: 13%)
Scn 6 (4% Chance) - New Zealand > Ireland (Chance of Upset: 0%)
Scn 7 (4% Chance) - New Zealand > South Africa (Chance of Upset: 0%)

Grand Final Scenarios: (Considering only SF Scn 1-5)

Scn 1 (27% Chance) - New Zealand > Australia (Chance of Upset: 8%)
Scn 2 (13% Chance) - New Zealand > Ireland (Chance of Upset: 0%)
Scn 3 (9% Chance) - England* > Australia (Chance of Upset: 34%)
Scn 4 (5% Chance) - New Zealand > South Africa (Chance of Upset: 0%)
Scn 5 (4% Chance) - England* > Ireland (Chance of Upset: 26%)

Potential World Champions: (Considering only Grand Final Scenarios 1-5)

New Zealand - 43% Chance
England - 9% Chance
Australia - 5% Chance
Ireland - 1% Chance

Obviously these don't add up to 100%, and that doesn't mean even lower ranked teams have a 42% chance of winning, just that only some of the most likely scenarios have been considered here. E.g. there's a 17% chance Wales will top Pool D, and everything that could possibly happen after that belongs in the missing 42% - Including the chance the same 4 teams will still win the grand final. Most of the rest in that 42% is combinations of very possible upsets e.g. Scotland tops Pool D *and* Australia loses QF 3 (8% chance both will happen).

 

[RugbyPUBtbilisi]

I do also have fortune telling skills.

A:
1 - Ireland
2 - Scotland
3 - Japan
4 - Tonga
5 - Romania

B:
1 - NZ
2 - RSA
3 - Italy
4 - Uruguay
5 - Namibia

C:
1- England
2 - France
3 - Argentina
4 - Samoa
5 - USA

D:
1 - Australia
2 - Wales
3 - Georgia
4 - Fiji
5 - Canada

 

[Cruz_del_Sur]

Chance of upsets for 1st in Pool:
Pool A - 31% (combination of 37% Scotland to beat Ireland and 75% Scotland to beat Japan, and 3% for Japan to beat both)
Pool B - 0% (The WRR point difference is over 10 points. Not realistic, but it's what I'm working with)
Pool C - 8% (12% France to beat England, 60% France to beat Argentina, 1% Argentina to beat both)
Pool D - 17% (25% Wales to beat Australia, 69% Wales to beat Fiji and Georgia, 0.1% Fiji to beat both)

This is why i said group A and not group C is the group of death.

 

[Brigantine]

For a more serious, naive prediction: (based on WRR right now)
* = high potential for an upset given current rankings.
** = high subjective potential for an upset despite current rankings. (*! = subjectively I expect the naive prediction to be <50% likely)

Time for an update...

Disclaimer - probabilities calculated here assume that, where teams have the same number of wins, the higher ranked one always has more BPs or a higher PD. It also ignores the possibility of draws.

Comments:

• Despite large RP gains for Ireland and Japan, their prospects in Pool A got worse, because Scotland gained even more. (from 28.5% to 29.9% for 1st in Pool)
• Namibia dropped massively, and Russia makes a strong appearance. Namibia's chance of their first ever RWC win drops from 49% to just 22%.
• France drops out of the top 8 and is now an underdog to escape their pool - Argentina becomes the favourite for 2nd in Pool C despite losing RP. Neither have a chance to take the top spot off England any more, and their chances of winning QF 3 against Australia have been slashed.
  
• Fiji improves and offers a 12% chance of upsetting Australia. Uruguay makes a massive improvement, but it only gives them an 11% chance vs Georgia.
• Ireland and Scotland have pulled within 10 RP of New Zealand, so have a chance of winning QF1 against New Zealand.
• Ireland is now the favourite to win SF2, above Australia - but it's still close. They have a 5% chance of becoming the Champion.
• It is 98.4% certain that either New Zealand or England will win Semifinal 1. (and a 1% chance for Ireland). OTOH Australia, Ireland, South Africa, Scotland and Wales all have over 5% chance of making the Final via Semifinal 2, and Argentina and France have over 1%.

Pool Stage:

Pool A: Ireland* (86.39 +1.73) > Scotland (84.11 +1.93) > Japan (78.66 +1.44 incl HA) > Romania* not Samoa (69.58 -0.57) > Samoa (69.03 -2.22)
Pool B: New Zealand (93.99 -0.79) > South Africa (83.81 +2.02) > Italy (71.25 +0.08) > Maybe*! Russia not Spain (64.45 +1.4 vs Spain) > Namibia (58.93 -3.85)
Pool C: England (90.87 +1.34) > Argentina* not France (78.22 -1.69) > France (78.09 -3.91) > Tonga* (71.87 -0.07) > USA (66.87 +0.08)
Pool D: Australia* (85.49 -0.86) > Wales* (82.08 +0.72) > Fiji* (77.93 +1.47) > Georgia (73.46 +0.54) > Uruguay (65.63 +4.39)

Chance of upsets for 1st in Pool:
Pool A - 32% +1.6 (Combination of 39% +1 Scotland to beat Ireland and 77% +2 Scotland to beat Japan, and 2.6% -0.6 for Japan to beat both incl 2.4% (+0.2) with 4 wins)
Pool B - 0% (The WRR point difference is over 10 points. Not realistic, but it's what I'm working with)
Pool C - 0% -8 (0% -12 France to beat England, 49% -11 France to beat Argentina, 0% -1 Argentina to beat both)
Pool D - 25% +7.5 (33% +8 Wales to beat Australia, 66% -3 Wales to beat Fiji 71% and Georgia 93%, 3.6% +3.5 Fiji to beat both incl 1.0% (+1.0) where Fiji lose to Georgia)

RWC 2023 Automatic Qualification
Assuming no surprises in qualifying and Russia wins the Repechage Tournament, teams have the following chances of finishing in the top 3 in their pool:
100% - New Zealand, England, Ireland, Australia, Scotland, South Africa
98.7% - Wales
97.7% - Japan
92.8% - Argentina
92.4% - France
87.6% - Italy
84.3% - Fiji

17.0% - Georgia
14.8% - Tonga
12.4% - Russia
1.7% - Romania
0.6% - Samoa
0% - USA, Uruguay, Namibia

The match in Pool B between the 4th and 5th seeds will very likely be historic. The only real way we won't end up with a new (20th) RWC match winner, is if Americas 3 wins the Repechage Tournament and then beats Africa 1. (Canada and Uruguay have both won RWC games in the past). Or if Russia beats Samoa in the (2-leg) Repechage Play-Off (~15% chance, IF Russia qualify). Otherwise, which team will become the 20th RWC match winner is wide open.

Namibia (58.93 -3.85) have the best chance (but less than 40%) because, although they are underdogs in the RWC match, they are favourites to qualify to Pool B in the first place. Russia (64.45 +2.05) would be the favourites if they qualify for the Repechage Tournament, but to get there they still need to beat Spain (61.68 -1.37) at home, collect bonus points, beat Portugal (57.79 -1.76) AND lose on aggregate to Samoa (69.58 -0.57). Other countries with a high potential to achieve this here are Spain and Hong Kong (59.66 +3.16) not Portugal (57.79 -1.76) or Kenya (54.24 -5.04).

 

[Brigantine]

Knock-Out Stage: (considering only selected Scenarios covering 97.5% of likely outcomes)

QF Scenarios A1-A19: No upsets for 1st in Pool (51% -2 Chance regardless of qualifiers)

QF1: New Zealand > Scotland / Japan (Chance of Upset: 0.6% +0.6 / 0% NC - average 0.5% +0.5)
QF2: England > Wales / Fiji (Chance of Upset: 6% -3 / 0% NC / 0% NC - average 5% -1)
QF3: Australia > Argentina / France / Tonga (Chance of Upset: 14% -4 / 13% -15 / 0% NC - average 13% -11)
QF4: Ireland* > South Africa (Chance of Upset: 37% +1)

QF Scenarios B1-B19: Scotland tops Pool A, no other upsets (22% NC Chance for Scenario B)

QF1: New Zealand > Ireland / Japan (Chance of Upset: 12% +12 / 0% NC - average 11% +11)
(QF2 and QF3 same as in Scn A1-A19)
QF4: Scotland*! > South Africa (Chance of Upset: 49% +1)

QF Scenarios C1-D19: Wales tops Pool D (22% -2 Chance including a further 7% (Scn D1-19) where Scotland tops their Pool as well as Wales)

(QF1 and QF4 same as in Scn A1-B19)
QF2: England > Australia / Fiji / Georgia (Chance of Upset: 23% / 0% / 0% - average 21%)
QF3: Wales* > France / Argentina / Tonga (Chance of Upset: 31% / 30% / 0% - average 30%)

[6 additional scenarios (covering half of the likely combinations of Fiji (2.6%) or Japan (2.4%) topping their pools) have been calculated, but are not shown here]

Semifinals:
SF Scenario 1: (26% +2 Chance)

SF1: New Zealand* > England (Chance of Upset: 34% +10)
SF2: Ireland* > Australia (Chance of Upset: 46% -12)

SF Scenario 2 / 3: Ireland fails (24% +2 / 9% +1 Chance)
(SF1 same as in SF Scn 1)
SF2: Australia* > South Africa / Scotland (Chance of Upset: 42% +15 / 43% +14 - 42% +14 average)

SF Scenario 4 / 6 / 8: Australia fails, Ireland wins QF4 (5% / 3.8% +1 / 2.6% -4 Chance)
SF2: Ireland > Wales / Argentina / France (Chance of Upset: 28% / 9% -17 / 9% -28 - 13% average)

SF Scenario 5 / 7 / 9: Australia fails, South Africa wins QF4 (4.7% / 3.5% / 2.3% Chance)
SF2: South Africa* > Wales / Argentina / France (Chance of Upset: 41% / 22% / 21% - 31% average)

[91 additional scenarios calculated, but not shown here]

Bronze Final Scenarios:

Scn 1 (19% Chance) - England > Australia (Chance of Upset: 23% -11)
Scn 2 (12% Chance) - England > South Africa (Chance of Upset: 15% +4)
Scn 3 (10% Chance) - New Zealand > Australia (Chance of Upset: 8% NC)
Scn 4 (9% -4 Chance) - England* > Ireland (Chance of Upset: 28% +2)
Scn 5 (6% Chance) - New Zealand > South Africa (Chance of Upset: 0% NC)
Scn 6 (5% Chance) - England > Wales (Chance of Upset: 0% NC)
Scn 7 (5% Chance) - New Zealand > Ireland (Chance of Upset: 12% +12)
Scn 8 (5% Chance) - England > Argentina (Chance of Upset: 0%)
Scn 9 (4% NC Chance) - England > Scotland (Chance of Upset: 16% +3)

Grand Final Scenarios:

Scn 1 (22% -5 Chance) - New Zealand > Australia (Chance of Upset: 8% NC)
Scn 2 (18% +5 Chance) - New Zealand > Ireland (Chance of Upset: 12% +12)
Scn 3 (13% +8 Chance) - New Zealand > South Africa (Chance of Upset: 0% NC)
Scn 4 (12% +3 Chance) - England > Australia (Chance of Upset: 23% -11)
Scn 5 (8% +4 Chance) - England* > Ireland (Chance of Upset: 28% +2)
Scn 6 (7% Chance) - England > South Africa (Chance of Upset: 15%)
Scn 7 (4.8% Chance) - New Zealand > Scotland (Chance of Upset: 0.6%)
Scn 8 (3.7% Chance) - New Zealand > Wales (Chance of Upset: 0%)
Scn 9 (2.8% Chance) - England > Scotland (Chance of Upset: 16%)
Scn 10 (1.5% Chance) - England > Wales (Chance of Upset: 6%)
Scn 11 (1.1% Chance) - New Zealand > Argentina (Chance of Upset: 0%)

Potential World Champions:

New Zealand - 60% +17 Chance (and for runner-up 4%)
England - 25% +16 Chance (runner-up 7%)
Ireland - 5% +4 Chance (runner-up 23%)
Australia - 5% NC Chance (runner-up 30%)
South Africa - 1.1% Chance (runner-up 19%)
Scotland - 0.6% Chance (runner-up 7%)
Wales - Only a 0.2% Chance of winning, but a 5% chance of being runner-up
And only a 0.01% Chance for anyone else to win, but a 2.8% chance the runner-up will be Argentina, France, Fiji or Japan.

 

[Brigantine]

Here's what that looks like graphically. The sizes of areas within each box are approximately proportional to the relevant likelihoods.

There's a 51% chance that every single knock-out game and quarter-finalist will follow one of the options shown here.
(according to the naive projections above, with all the assumptions that go with it)

Only upsets which individually have a 20%+ chance of happening have been included in the graphic.
Despite that, each individual box covers options with at least an 80% chance between them, except for 2nd place and 3rd place.
(They're 73% and 78%. The main options not shown are (for 2nd place) Scotland (8%) or Wales (6%) winning SF2 or England (7%) losing the final, and (for 3rd place) Australia winning QF2 (5%) or the bronze final via SF2 (6%))



If the pool matches were shown the same way, the only other games with more than one possible winner shown (i.e. with a >20% chance of an upset) would be Romania (53%) vs Samoa (47%), Fiji (72%) vs Georgia* (28%), Tonga (75%) vs USA (25%), and Namibia vs the Repechage Qualifier (up to 78% if Russia qualifies).
* - but Georgia still only has a 17% chance of being 3rd in Pool D and earning Automatic Qualification to 2023.

 

[Brigantine]

Updating for rankings changes last week:

Wales and Scotland swap places. A weaker Scotland makes it slightly easier for Ireland and New Zealand, and a stronger Wales makes it slightly harder for Australia and England.

Ireland now has a better chance of making the Final than England. (But not of winning it)

Grand Final Scenarios:

Scn 1 (20% -2 Chance) - New Zealand > Australia (Chance of Upset: 8% NC)
Scn 2 (23% +5 Chance) - New Zealand > Ireland (Chance of Upset: 14% +2)
Scn 3 (14% +1 Chance) - New Zealand > South Africa (Chance of Upset: 0% NC)
Scn 4 (10% -2 Chance) - England > Australia (Chance of Upset: 23% NC)
Scn 5 (10% +2 Chance) - England* > Ireland (Chance of Upset: 30% +2)
Scn 6 (6% -1 Chance) - England > South Africa (Chance of Upset: 15% NC)
Scn 7 (2.6% -2.2 Chance) - New Zealand > Scotland (Chance of Upset: 0% -0.6)
Scn 8 (7% +3 Chance) - New Zealand > Wales (Chance of Upset: 0% NC)
Scn 9 (1.4% -1.4 Chance) - England > Scotland (Chance of Upset: 9% -7)
Scn 10 (2.8% +1.3 Chance) - England > Wales (Chance of Upset: 13% +7)
Scn 11 (1.1% NC Chance) - New Zealand > Argentina (Chance of Upset: 0% NC)

Potential World Champions:

New Zealand - 63% +1 Chance (and for runner-up 5% +1)
England - 24% -2 Chance (runner-up 7% NC)
Ireland - 7% +2 Chance (runner-up 27% +4)
Australia - 4% -1 Chance (runner-up 27% -3)
South Africa - 1.1% NC Chance (runner-up 19% -1)
Wales - 0.5% +0.3 Chance (runner-up 9% +4)
Scotland - Only a 0.2% -0.4 Chance of winning, but a 4% -3 chance of being runner-up
And only a 0.01% NC Chance for anyone else to win, but a 2.5% -0.7 chance the runner-up will be Argentina, France, Fiji or Japan.

 

[Cruz_del_Sur]

Is there any way to factor in some sort of "world cup"effect?
Some teams tend to choke while others tend to punch above their weight when it matters.

Most of the stats look reasonable except I personally don't buy that RSA has zero chance of beating NZ in a final. Last time they met was 24-25, wasn't it? NZ are clear favourites, sure, but zero chance looks like a stretch to me.
2015 was a terrible year for South Africa and even then when they faced the All blacks in the semis the lost 20-18. Never write RSA off.