This could go any way imo Cyril. Toulon aren't guaranteed to take the HC seriously, as many French teams tend to do before winning the Top14 first. They have a great pack, but not one which the Ospreys can't live with, and I'd take the Ospreys backs any day of the week over the Toulon ones. The way Cardiff Blues outplayed them last year gives me confidence that Toulon have some big weaknesses. Not that the Ospreys haven't shown their fair share of weaknesses over the years though.
If I had to predict the result, I'd probably go for a Toulon win with the O's picking up a loosing bp. But a couple of moments of magic from Hook, Bowe, Shane, Byrne could easily result in an Ospreys win. One things for sure though, Biggar can't have one of his off days. He's gotta slot every kickable penalty imo.