(Very) early thoughts on the 2017 Lions

[TRF_Olyy]

SweetMan - nailed on test captain

 

[LeinsterMan (NotTigsMan)]

Earls in lions contention.


Hahahahahahahahahahahaahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha.

The only earl going to the lions tour is the Earl Grey in Ben Youngs tea.

 

[Duck a l'Orange]

Earls in lions contention.


Hahahahahahahahahahahaahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha.

The only earl going to the lions tour is the Earl Grey in Ben Youngs tea.

That was strained, even for you.

 

[munstermuffin]

As I said don't know who sent or how many overall but they all got a letter.
For Leinster I'd guess
Healy
McGrath
Cronin
Toner
O'Brien
Van Der Flier
Heaslip
Sexton
Henshaw
Ringrose
Kearney

I presume it was to all possibles that may get injury call up.

Like John Ryan could be 5th choice

 

[munstermuffin]

6 from that list would be veeeery generous, the only ones I'd pick are CJ, POM and Murray.

What club do we think will have the most players? Can anyone compete with Sarries? Leinster or Wasps maybe?!

Oh yeah theres no way most will go as I say it may be a list of 100 got them I don't know.

 

[LeinsterMan (NotTigsMan)]

Wasps will prob have 1 maybe 2/3.
Launchbury and maybe Haskell and Daly.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Wasps will prob have 1 maybe 2/3.
Launchbury and maybe Haskell and Daly.

Yeah, said it having immediately forgotten all their good players are imports! Ster v Sarries so!

 

[LeinsterMan (NotTigsMan)]

Tigers could have
Cole
Croft
Manu
Ben Youngs
Tom Youngs
Genge

100%

 

[TRF_Olyy]

Has manu played rugby since....id say since the last tour but he barely played on that

 

[LeinsterMan (NotTigsMan)]

Has manu played rugby since....id say since the last tour but he barely played on that

Shhhhghuhhh....hhsshhjr

 

[Goodey]

What club do we think will have the most players? Can anyone compete with Sarries? Leinster or Wasps maybe?!

Saracens and Leinster both have the most 'nailed on' players with 4/5 but Leinster have by far the most options, especially if Gatland wants to pick 2013 incumbents in close decisions like Heaslip, O'Brien, Healy and Kearney

In roughly descending order of selection likelihood

Saracens

1. Farrell
2. M Vunipola
3. B Vunipola
4. Itoje
5. Kruis
6. George
7. Ashton
8. Maitland

Leinster

1. Sexton
2. Furlong
3. McGrath
4. Henshaw
5. Ringrose
6. Healy
7. O'Brien
8. Heaslip
9. Kearney
10. Van der Flier
11. Toner
12. Cronin

 

[Goodey]

Another thought - which is the best British/Irish team where no one gets picked?

Probably Exeter

 

[Lé Ddanno]

Nowell, Slade and LCD are all possibles. Good point though

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Geech has written in the telegraph setting out his criteria of what he sees as criteria for picking this Lions squad. Considering he mentored Gats for the Lions, his viewpoint is interesting. He selects 46 who have met his criteria, who he sees are in the frame, to be whittled down to 37/38. I set his picks below as it's a premium article, so unless you're registered to read (allowed 1 free article a week). Interesting that he does not mention JJ, Ford or Sinckler:


Back three

Stuart Hogg, Liam Williams, Elliot Daly, George North, Anthony Watson, Tommy Seymour, Jack Nowell, Leigh Halfpenny and Rob Kearney

A mixture of experience and new talent is needed in any Lions squad, which is why I think guys like Kearney and Halfpenny must be in the frame. Halfpenny's goalkicking is also a serious weapon. Against that, you weigh the other criteria mentioned above. I think Gats will go for seven or eight of these nine.

Centres

Jonathan Davies, Robbie Henshaw, Garry Ringrose, Jamie Roberts and Owen Farrell

A mix of experience and in-form talent, so important in the positions between back row and back three.

Fly-halves

Jonathan Sexton, Dan Biggar

Farrell, of course, can play 10 or 12 which means I have only picked two other fly-halves. But I think there will be serious discussion about Finn Russell, my wild card. This is a player I sense could grow with the challenge and support of the Lions environment.

Scrum-halves

Ben Youngs, Danny Care, Rhys Webb, Conor Murray
I think Gats will go for three of these four. The one he will leave out will depend on the game plan he is decides to go with, and who he picks at fly-half.

Loose-heads

Mako Vunipola, Joe Marler, Jack McGrath, Cian Healy
Again it is three from four. Ball-carrying in this group could be an important asset, and influence the final call.

Tightheads
Tadhg Furlong, Dan Cole, Samson Lee

Hookers

Rory Best, Dylan Hartley, Ken Owens, Jamie George

Which three hookers will Gats take? Big decisions here. Throwing in is the key, as well as ball-carrying. The final choices could come down to the 'chemistry' element.

Second row

Alun Wyn Jones, Maro Itoje, George Kruis, Iain Henderson, Courtney Lawes, Joe Launchbury, Richie Gray
I see this as the most competitive area in the Lions squad, and also the key to beating New Zealand, whose partnership of Brodie Retallick and Sam Whitelock is fearsome. Whoever Warren goes with will have to match them blow for blow. I think he will take five of these seven.

Back row

Sam Warburton, Billy Vunipola, Ross Moriarty, Taulupe Faletau, C J Stander, Peter O'Mahony, Jamie Heaslip, Sean O'Brien, Justin Tipuric

It is eight from nine here and I would not want to be in Warren's shoes. You can make a case for any or all of them. This area is an exciting part for the Lions, it is trying to judge the effect of the combinations of players who will be coming together for the first time, and could produce devastating rugby.

 

[ncurd]

Have to say the only thing that surprises me is the lack of JJ who I'd thought would be competetive for a starting berth in the team.

Lack of Ford I don't agree but I accept its likely to happen.

Unsure why he has Care in the frame and a lack of choices at fly half....I mean unless he goes instead of Youngs (as third choice) which I doubt will happen.

- - - Updated - - -

I mean the lack of Ford annoys more to do with the taking of Biggar over both him and Russell.

 

[Pieter Steph du Teague]

No Jonny Gray?

 

[munstermuffin]

To be honest thats a poor squad Geechs picked.

In backrow he's named Heaslip Vunipola and Faletau. If all 3 toured thats very poor. They're all specialist 8s and plenty alternatives like Stander etc who can be 3rd 8.
I hope there is no mistakes like 2005 made.
Pick on form and go for it.

It's confirmed anyway it seems 37 is the number touring.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

No Jonny Gray?

To be fair i think he's now behind Lawes and Launchbury after the England thrashing.

- - - Updated - - -

Have to say the only thing that surprises me is the lack of JJ who I'd thought would be competetive for a starting berth in the team.

Lack of Ford I don't agree but I accept its likely to happen.

Unsure why he has Care in the frame and a lack of choices at fly half....I mean unless he goes instead of Youngs (as third choice) which I doubt will happen.

- - - Updated - - -

I mean the lack of Ford annoys more to do with the taking of Biggar over both him and Russell.

Yep agreed on Biggar- yes a big match player, but Ford is the better playmaker and also a ready made combination with Farrell.. JJ though didn't really rise to the occasion v Ireland, but Ireland marked him out of the game.

Samson Lee is another strange pick by Geech - don't think he's that great a scrummager and gives away a lot of penalties.

 

[Reiser99]

The fact that he picks both JD and Jamie Roberts says it all. Neither have been in great form. Ringrose has potential, but I wouldn't want to rely on his lack of experience against the AB's. That just leaves Henshaw and Farrell, with some cover from back 3. Any injuries would hit the midfield hard.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

The rest of Geech's article:

Having been involved in a few Lions selections over the years, I know the challenges facing Warren Gatland and his coaching team right now. Picking those last few names is incredibly difficult.

It is these final decisions in which you are trying to match talent and character and trying to determine which players will be most influential in adding to the important chemistry of the group. Get this right and processes become easier.

They are the critical selections, the ones who can make or break a tour. Their contributions will determine what sort of an atmosphere prevails. When that first Test team is picked, it is their reactions that will count. They must be the right characters as well as the right players.

When it comes to selection, Gats will know the game he believes can challenge New Zealand and he will pick accordingly. The final decision must rest with him because it is an incredibly personal thing.

Every Lions tour and every Lions squad is unique and will evolve and create its own spirit in an incredibly short period of time. There will be no voting, just a lot of discussion about the attributes the coaches feel each player can bring, but ultimately it is the head coach who has to be happy.

That said, there are certain rules of thumb, certain criteria, which I would always apply when trying to select a squad…

1. Pick players on form

I cannot stress this enough. There simply is not the time available to pick players who are not on form and allow them to 'play themselves in'. It is also vital that the players themselves know you are not selecting on reputation.

2. Pick players who have consistently performed well under pressure

This is where Wales's players have possibly let themselves down a bit over the past eight months or so. Their form under pressure has just not been good enough. Scotland, too, while they have had a really encouraging time since the World Cup, their defeats by France and particularly England were massive setbacks when the spotlight was really on them. Players such as the Gray brothers and possibly Finn Russell would have fallen down the pecking order there, I would imagine. By contrast, Ireland's players – guys such as Robbie Henshaw and Garry Ringrose, Jonathan Sexton and Sean O'Brien – delivered when it mattered. Their autumn form, and their finish to the Six Nations, will have helped their cause.

3. Pick players who are quick to learn and assimilate ideas

With such a short build-up, it is imperative that players can take on board new ideas and put them into practice in double-quick time. There is such a short window to assimilate the coach's game plan. So you need rugby intelligence as well as talent to tour with the Lions. I believe it is the collective rugby intelligence which will be so important and necessary to beat New Zealand.

4. Pick players who understand 'collective intelligence'

It is not just about learning and adapting your own role. It is about understanding how to implement the game plan in a team context, developing a game that can challenge the All Blacks. Talent is one thing, but the ability to share knowledge from different perspectives to make the greatest and most significant impact lifts the team performance to a different level. This is where the Lions of 2009 and 2013 got it right.

5. Pick players with the right character to create the right Lions identity

The big difference between the Lions and any other team in the world is that each Lions squad is a reflection of that specific group of players. It is not like a nation which has its own identity regardless of which players are selected. Each Lions squad is unique. Players must be big enough to take on the challenge of moulding that identity, putting their stamp on it. I see someone such as Owen Farrell and I think he can take on that responsibility.

6. Pick dynamic players

There has been a lot of talk about the physical side of the game, almost an assumption that the Lions will need to outmuscle New Zealand. To beat them up. To blast them off the pitch. It is cliché of northern hemisphere rugby v southern hemisphere rugby. Of course the Lions will need to be physical. But I believe it is a dynamic, evolving game that will most challenge the All Blacks and put them off their stride. They are hugely physical themselves and will be ready for that confrontation. So we must have speed into positions, into shape, into contact, in our decision-making. We will have to be incredibly accurate, and capable in a few weeks. It requires every player to see and adapt to opportunities and threats. That is the team dynamic which the Lions will want to have in place leading into the first Test.

7. Pick role models

You need role models in any squad, and particularly so in a Lions squad where guys from different countries – who may not know each other – are coming together for such a short time. I would put Sam Warburton, Rob Kearney, Jamie Heaslip and Alun Wyn Jones into this bracket. And Jamie Roberts. He has to be in contention for me despite losing his Wales spot over the autumn. Big man and a big leader.

With those criteria in mind, I then sat down and mapped out my Lions squad. I ended up with 46 names, 25 who are the essential core, and 21 from whom the final critical 12 will come. So I will leave that as my long list. But one thing I do know, it will not be easy for Gats. That last selection meeting is never easy. As a Lions coach, it is wonderful to be able to tell players they are going, but devastating to leave them out. That responsibility weighs heavily on your shoulders.